Can population decline and aging be reversed?
In the latest international statistical yearbook 2021, the number of marriage registrations has reached a new low in 17 years, the marriage rate has reached a new low in nearly 42 years, the divorce rate has risen, the birth rate has fallen below 1%, and the population over 60 accounts for nearly 20%. These data are very eye-catching. Population is the primary productive force. With the continuous decline of birth rate, fertility policies have been introduced all over the country.
China's birth rate is the same as that of Japan 10 years ago
Many indicators are pointed out, and the population situation is not optimistic. According to the data of the seventh census, the natural population growth rate in 2020 was 1.45 ‰, and the birth rate fell below 1% for the first time in more than 40 years, only 8.52 ‰, which aroused public concern about China's fertility rate.
In fact, the decline of birth rate has become the current situation faced by all countries in the world. According to the data of the world bank, India, with the highest population density in the world, has experienced a sharp decline in the birth rate in the past 40 years. According to the data of India's fifth national household survey report (2019-2021), India's total fertility rate has dropped to 2.0, which is lower than the replacement level of 2.1 in demography. The United Nations predicts that India's population will have a negative growth by 2060.
The birth rate of the United States and Japan reached a new low in 2020, of which Japan was lower than 7 ‰ for the first time, and Japan's birth rate was 8.5 ‰ in 2010, that is, China's current birth rate is the same as that of Japan 10 years ago.
the proportion of people over 65 in China is twice that in India
Like the birth rate, the problem of aging can not be ignored. Population aging is a major issue related to the national economy, the people's livelihood and social stability, involving thousands of families and future generations. It has become an important issue that can not be ignored and urgently needs to be solved.
National statistics show that since 2014, China's population over 65 has accounted for more than 10% for seven consecutive years, that is, there is one elderly person over 65 in every 10 people. In 2020, China's population aged 60 and over will exceed 260 million, accounting for 18.7% of the total population; Among them, the population aged 65 and over exceeded 190 million, accounting for a new high of 13.5%, twice that of India in the same period . The gap with developed countries in Europe and the United States has also gradually narrowed. For example, the elderly over 65 accounted for 16.63% in the United States in 2020. With a large population, India accounts for 6.57% of the population over the age of 65, only half of that of China. It is worth mentioning that India has more than 26% of children under the age of 14, which can be said to be the world's youngest country with a large population.
According to international standards, the population over 60 years old accounts for more than 10% or the population over 65 years old accounts for more than 7%, which means that the population of this country or region is in an aging society; Accounting for more than 14%, which means entering a deeply aging society. According to the data of the seventh population census, China will enter a deep aging society four years ahead of the forecast time. According to the IMF forecast, China is likely to enter a deep aging society in 2023.
It took 126 years in France, 46 years in Britain, 40 years in Germany and 25 years in Japan to transition from an aging society to a deeply aging society. according to the prediction of the IMF, this process in China is likely to take only 22 years, shorter than that in Japan.
more than 15 million people in Shandong are over 65 years old
the aging of Guangdong is only half that of Liaoning
If the data predicted by the IMF is true, China may become the country with the fastest rate of deep aging in human history. The IMF's population model also predicts that by 2050, one out of every 3.3 Chinese will be over 65, that is, the population over 65 accounts for more than 30%.
According to the statistical yearbook data, there are 31 provinces (including municipalities directly under the central government, the same below) in China, and as many as 30 provinces have entered the aging society. Tibet is the youngest, with 5.67% of the population aged over 65 and 24.53% of the population under 14.
There are 12 provinces that have entered the deep aging stage, and there are many northern provinces. Liaoning, the three eastern provinces, ranks first, accounting for 17.42% of the population over the age of 65; The population over 65 years old in Jiangsu Province accounts for more than 16%, ranking fifth; Among the four municipalities directly under the central government, except Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai and Tianjin account for more than 14% of the population over the age of 65, ranking second, fourth and 11th in China respectively. Shandong Province ranks eighth with a proportion of 15.13%, with a population of more than 15 million over the age of 65, ranking first among the 31 provinces in China. The GDP of Shandong Province ranks the third in China in 2020, but the population outflow of Shandong Province is relatively serious. In contrast to the deepening degree of aging, the number of births in Shandong is declining, which has led to the intensification of aging.
Guangdong, the largest economic province in China, is also very young. In 2020, the proportion of 65 year old population was only 8.58%, ranking the third from the bottom, half of Liaoning Province.
the youngest in Shenzhen
The aging of Shanghai is 4.4 times that of Shenzhen
The aging problem of large cities in China is also serious. According to statistics, 19 of the 21 super large and mega cities in China have a population over the age of 60, accounting for more than 10%. Seven cities account for more than 20%, which means that there is one elderly over 60 in every five people. The top three cities are Dalian, Shanghai and Shenyang.
Among the four municipalities directly under the central government, Beijing is relatively young, and the population over the age of 60 accounts for less than 20%. However, it is mentioned in Beijing's development plan for aging during the 14th Five Year Plan period that Beijing has a large elderly population base. It is expected that by the end of the 14th five year plan, the population aging level will reach 24%, from mild aging to moderate aging. By 2035, the population over 60 will be close to 7 million, and the population aging level will exceed 30%, entering severe aging.
Among the 21 cities, the four cities in Guangdong ranked the last four in terms of aging, and Shenzhen was the youngest, accounting for only 5.33% of the population over the age of 60; The proportion of people over 60 years old in Dongguan is also less than 6%. Among the four first tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Shanghai is the highest, with the population over 60 accounting for 23.38%, 4.4 times that of Shenzhen.
17 stagflation pension stocks were increased by going north
Experts said that the decline in the birth rate and the increase in the aging population have had an impact on the country's economic vitality, social structure and even the survival of the nation at the macro level; At the micro level, the happiness and rights of every family and individual are affected. Under the background of the increase of the aging population, the pension industry provides services for various industries and research to realize long-term health and happiness.
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, among the 8 trillion sectors of the A-share market, pharmaceutical Mao Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and ophthalmic Mao Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) all have laid out the elderly care industry, and 17 concept stocks have lost the market during the year, and have been increased by going north since September. According to the statistics of databao, there were Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) with higher declines during the year, and the three stocks all fell by more than 25%. Since September, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , Xi'An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) ranked first in the range of increased positions of funds going north.
(data treasure)
