Today (February 28) A-share shock adjustment, the stock index strengthened in the afternoon, and the gem index led the rise. On the disk, in terms of industries, photovoltaic, energy metals, port and shipping, coal, chemical raw materials, medical devices, ships, batteries and other industries led the increase; Decoration, education, engineering machinery, real estate, automobiles, household appliances, engineering construction, etc. saw the largest decline. In terms of subject stocks, digital currency, in vitro diagnosis, data security, covid-19 detection, hit battery, lithium extraction from Salt Lake and scarce resources led the rise, while LED, industrial machine tools, assembly buildings, diamond cultivation, rental and sale rights, radio and television and other small pullbacks.
Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) staged the floor market, and the trading was resumed for four consecutive days with a one-stop trading limit
On February 28, Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) staged a day floor market. In terms of news, Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) announced on February 21 that the company plans to absorb and merge Huainan Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. and resume trading of shares; After the completion of this transaction, the coal, power and natural gas related businesses of Huainan mining will be listed as a whole.
It should be noted that the restructuring has also attracted much attention to the problem of suspected news preemption. On February 7, Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) announced the reorganization, but the company’s share price rose in advance on that day. After the resumption of trading on February 22, the stock rose by the limit for four consecutive days.
In terms of performance, the performance of Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) 2021 is not satisfactory due to factors such as industry cycle in recent two years. According to the performance forecast, Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will decrease by 31.7 million yuan to 61.7 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year (statutory disclosure data), a year-on-year decrease of 6.67% to 12.98%. In 2020, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 447 million yuan, with total assets of 17.6 billion yuan.
As for the reasons for this performance change, Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.Ltd(600575) said that affected by the changes in supply and demand of China’s coal market, the coal-fired cost of wholly-owned power plants increased and the performance of power generation sector decreased. In addition, the impact of non operating profit and loss is mainly due to the transfer and resettlement funds for resolving excess capacity of mines and the central and local supporting funds for coal mine safety transformation projects received in the previous period.
shipping sector rises Ningbo Marine Company Limited(600798) etc. limit Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) etc. rise
The shipping sector rose on the 28th, with Ningbo Energy Group Co.Ltd(600982) , Ningbo Marine Company Limited(600798) , Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , Antong Holdings Co.Ltd(600179) , Chang Jiang Shipping Group Phoenix Co.Ltd(000520) , Cosco Shipping Development Company Limited(601866) , Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers Co.Ltd(600428) , etc. rising. On the news side, China Central Television reported that on February 27 local time, the Ukrainian border defense Bureau said it would temporarily close the border ports with Russia, Belarus and the areas along the Dniester River from Monday (28).
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) transportation industry analysts said that the global centralized transportation supply chain is always in a tight state and “has no resistance to the impact of any event”. Historically, events such as the blockage of Suez Canal and Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) suspension have led to nonlinear sudden changes in freight rates. Although the container transportation in and out of the Black Sea is a relatively small trade, the continuous escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may have a great impact on the global container supply chain and greatly delay the recovery speed of the global supply chain.
The supply of ships in Russia and Ukraine will be reduced accordingly; Major liner companies may reduce the number of liner trips into the Black Sea, and the average haul distance may increase; If the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, Russia may attack infrastructure such as it system through network, or cause a great blow to the global container supply chain. In terms of demand, the demand for residents’ material reserves in European countries may increase significantly, or the import volume from countries with long transportation distance will increase, driving the overall demand of tons of nautical miles. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand of subsequent centralized transportation may become more prominent, and the freight rate may have a nonlinear mutation.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) also pointed out that regional conflicts may stimulate the upward movement of shipping rates. (1) Centralized transportation: on the demand side, war factors may stimulate the European region to hoard a large number of living materials, and the demand for the European line may increase in the short term; On the supply side, war factors may lead to the suspension of ports in relevant regions and the obstruction of some shipping lines. Under the background of the already tight global supply chain, the centralized transportation supply may continue to be in short supply. (2) Dry bulk cargo: Russia and Ukraine are the world’s major grain and coal export hubs. Regional conflicts will shift relevant import and export trade to the Americas, Australia and New Zealand, and the lengthening of transportation distance is expected to increase the freight rate of dry bulk cargo; On the other hand, regional conflicts have led to concerns about the stability of the supply chain on both sides of import and export trade, and the freight rates of relevant routes may increase significantly in the short term. (3) Oil transportation: Europe is highly dependent on Russian energy. At present, about 2.3 million barrels / day of Russian crude oil flows westward through the pipeline network to the export terminals of the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, and directly to the refineries in central and Eastern Europe. If the regional situation worsens and Western countries impose sanctions on Russia, European refineries will turn to the Middle East to import crude oil, and Russia will also look for alternative customers. At that time, the crude oil transportation distance will be lengthened and the overall crude oil transportation price will be significantly increased. On the other hand, regional conflicts have led to concerns of both importers and exporters about the stability of the supply chain, and the freight rates of relevant routes may increase significantly in the short term. In terms of the subject matter, we recommend Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , and actively pay attention to Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) .
photovoltaic sector starts in the afternoon. Ministry of industry and information technology: increase the supply of photovoltaic, energy-saving motors and other equipment
On February 28, the photovoltaic sector started to work in the afternoon, and Ningbo Energy Group Co.Ltd(600982) , Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) , Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) and Jingke energy, Lingda Group Co.Ltd(300125) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , etc. strengthened one after another. On the news front, Xiao Yaqing, Minister of industry and information technology, said at the press conference of the state information office today that he would improve the green manufacturing system, continue to strengthen product green design, and create a number of green design demonstration enterprises. Increase the supply of photovoltaic, fan, energy-saving motor and other equipment, implement the special action for the innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry, and improve the industrial chain of wind power equipment. Revise and improve the dual credit management system for vehicle fuel consumption and new energy vehicles.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that in the context of “double carbon”, in order to realize low-carbon power generation, China’s energy structure is changing from traditional fossil energy to clean energy such as photovoltaic, wind power and nuclear power.
In order to support the development of photovoltaic industry, China’s relevant policies have been continuously increased, and a series of policies have been successively issued, such as promoting photovoltaic pilot projects throughout the county, building photovoltaic + modern agriculture, developing intelligent photovoltaic industry, developing distributed and centralized photovoltaic at the same time; Financial institutions continue to launch carbon emission reduction support tools.
The agency believes that China’s photovoltaic has entered the era of affordable Internet access. With the support and guidance of various policies, photovoltaic is becoming one of the main energy sources. During the “14th five year plan” period, China’s photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to show an explosive trend. We are optimistic about the investment opportunities in the photovoltaic equipment industry under the high boom of the photovoltaic industry, and the equipment manufacturers in all links of the industrial chain will fully benefit.
overseas giants raise prices! The concept of titanium dioxide is stronger and the industry boom is expected to rise
On Monday afternoon, titanium dioxide concept stocks led the rise. As of press time, Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) rose more than 6%, and the stock once hit the daily limit Guangdong Huiyun Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(300891) , Gpro Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(000545) , Sichuan Anning Iron And Titanium Co.Ltd(002978) , Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) , Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) , etc. followed the rise. On the news, overseas titanium dioxide giants sent another price increase letter. The price increase notice issued by fannengtuo said that since April 1, the price of all titanium dioxide products suitable for plastic, paper and other applications will be adjusted, with a maximum increase of $400 / ton. KONOS also announced a price increase. Since April 1, all titanium dioxide products have increased by up to $200 / ton.
East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that recently, the state has successively issued a number of policies to help the development of new infrastructure. The new infrastructure is expected to drive the traditional infrastructure industry to usher in a new round of prosperity. The demand for traditional infrastructure has picked up, and real estate related chemical products such as titanium dioxide are expected to be positive. Recently, affected by the supply side reform of the chemical industry, the new production capacity of titanium dioxide is limited in the short term. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the new production capacity of titanium dioxide in China in 2022 is only 60000 tons. Relevant targets under the prosperity of titanium dioxide market may benefit.
Shengang Securities believes that the supply pattern is still good, and the rising cost is one of the driving forces for the continuous price increase of titanium dioxide. Driven by the business cycle of titanium dioxide, the rising price of titanium dioxide will play a thickening role in the company’s performance. The rising cost of raw materials such as titanium concentrate provides a strong cost support for titanium dioxide. Under the background of dual control policy of energy consumption and export promotion, the prosperity pattern of titanium dioxide industry is expected to continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading industries such as Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) , Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , which have the advantages of scale and cost.
gold and jewelry consumption demand is strong, focusing on investment opportunities
According to media reports, the gold market has fluctuated recently. The sales of gold jewelry counters in many shopping malls in Shanghai have increased significantly. The overall sales of some counters in the past three days have increased by about 20% year-on-year. In addition, according to the data of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, during the Spring Festival holiday, the national gold consumption demand was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 13%.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that since February 2022, the international situation has been tense and changeable, and the conflict has further intensified. Affected by various news, the international capital market fluctuated sharply. From February 1 to February 25, the closing prices of Comex gold and silver futures have risen by 5.1% / 6.0% respectively, and investors have strong risk aversion. In the short term, the global regional conflicts increase the risk aversion motivation and drive the gold price higher; In the medium and long term, some historical relics are difficult to be completely solved in the short term, and global macro policy factors are still the main wind vane of the gold market.
Gold is the main consumer goods in China’s jewelry market. In 2020, gold jewelry consumption accounted for 52% of the jewelry industry. Gold consumption is related to the trend of gold price to some extent. Generally speaking, when the gold price rises in the early stage, gold consumption is positively related to the price rise. When the gold price is already high, gold itself also has a certain investment hedging attribute. In addition to the investment attribute, the consumption attribute of gold has also driven the expansion of the gold jewelry market in recent years. The rise of gold consumption attribute is mainly driven by two factors: (1) consumers are more willing to pay for brands and products with Chinese cultural elements; (2) gold jewelry has a more sense of design after process improvement. At present, ancient arts and crafts and hard metals are favored by consumers. It is recommended that Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Zhou Dafu, Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , etc.
february lithium carbonate prices hit new highs repeatedly, and the sustainability of this round of supply-demand mismatch may exceed expectations (attached shares)
According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of lithium carbonate kept rising in February 2022, and the price reached a new high at the end of the month. On February 24, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 439600 yuan / ton, an increase of 23.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. On February 24, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 458000 yuan / ton, up 19.9% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. Until the 24th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 410000470000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 45 Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) 0000 yuan / ton.
In late February, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly, the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt in the market were still in a tight state, and the gap of lithium carbonate in China was still obvious. The business agency pointed out that at present, the demand of new energy vehicles, energy storage and other markets continues to burst. Lithium carbonate, as an indispensable raw material in the production and manufacture of the four cathode materials, has kept hitting a record high price. In addition, due to the relatively long production cycle at the upstream mine, there are obvious restrictions on the increase of lithium salt production. Under the tension of supply and demand, the price of lithium carbonate rises all the way.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the price of lithium sector continues to rise. The rapid rise in price is mainly driven by the urgent demand for lithium carbonate from lithium iron phosphate manufacturers, especially overseas energy storage batteries. The lithium price is transmitted smoothly, and naturally the lithium price is further raised. Basically, the short-term lithium supply and demand continues to be tight, and the lithium price may remain strong, and the concentrate end is more certain. Although the Ministry of industry and information technology recently proposed to continue to accelerate the development of China’s lithium resources, the increase of lithium supply will not occur within one year (more affecting the long-term supply expectation). It is expected that the spot price of lithium is still easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that the spot supply of lithium concentrate was tight, which was basically sold in the form of underwriting, and only a small part was sold in the form of loose orders. The deterministic supply and demand gap of lithium mines in 22 and 23 years will be greatly alleviated in 24 and 25 years. The sustainability of this round of supply and demand mismatch will exceed expectations and continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the lithium sector. Focus on the idea of “performance + growth”. Focus on companies with resources, processing capacity and growth in the future, such as leading companies Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , flexible targets Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , etc.
