Summary of major core changes in prosperity
Consumer sector: the boom has been cold, and we pay attention to the pharmaceutical and biological industry.
The consumer sector as a whole has been cold. In terms of total consumption, RPI fell month on month in January this year, and the growth rate slowed down. In terms of food and beverage, the first batch price of Maotai fell, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price rose slightly, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) price was flat, the price of 350ml beer increased slightly, the price of milk increased month on month, and the price of infant milk powder outside China decreased month on month; The price index of traditional Chinese medicine rose month on month, the price of vitamin A fell month on month, and the prices of lysine and methionine rose month on month; Retail sales and wholesale sales of passenger cars fell month on month; The total timber index fell month on month, and the spot prices of MDI and TDI fell simultaneously month on month; Pork prices fell, the number of fertile sows fell, broiler seedling prices fell, soybean meal and corn prices rose, Shouguang vegetable price index rose and fruit prices fell month on month; Yiwu commodity price index fell month on month.
Growth sector: marginal recovery of prosperity, focusing on photovoltaic wind power and semiconductor
The prosperity margin of the growth sector has warmed up, and the new energy sector represented by photovoltaic wind power is expected to hit the bottom and pick up. In the semiconductor industry, the fee half index changed from up to down, and the memory price rose slightly. Semiconductor sales continued to grow in December 2021. Global semiconductor sales and shipments reached a record high in 2021. China remains the world’s largest semiconductor market. In terms of electrical equipment, the price of silicon material has increased slightly in recent two weeks, and the prices of photovoltaic industry chain have increased slightly, among which the price index of polysilicon has increased most significantly. In terms of lithium battery materials, the price of electrolyte has remained stable in the past two weeks and has remained unchanged for four consecutive months. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged, and the high price difference between electrolyte and 6F remained stable. In terms of media, the viewing boom subsided two weeks after the Spring Festival, and the film box office revenue and film viewing people declined. In January 2022, the top three mobile game revenue rankings in China were stable, and popular new games performed well.
Large financial sector: the boom has picked up, pay attention to banks
The financial boom has picked up. In terms of banks, the social finance and credit data in January showed an upward trend, and the trend of bottoming and stabilizing was obvious. The short-term interest rate first decreased and then increased, the long-term interest rate remained stable as a whole, and the capital side remained relatively loose. In terms of real estate, the house price index of 100 cities decreased by 0.01% month on month in January 2022, which was smaller than that in December 2021. The housing index of 70 large and medium-sized cities was 0.00% month on month, and the trend of stabilization was obvious. In February 2022, the interest rate of the first house loan in 103 mainstream cities across the country monitored was 5.47%, down 9 basis points from January. In the past two weeks, the transaction area of commercial housing has increased and the transaction premium rate has increased. In the non bank sector, the decline in premium income narrowed, stock turnover first rose and then fell, and trading sentiment remained low.
Cycle sector: the boom continues to differentiate, mainly focusing on petroleum, petrochemical and non-ferrous metals
The boom of cyclical sectors continues to differentiate. Overall, as of February 22, 2022, the commodity price index rose slightly. In terms of coal by industry, the futures price of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal fell, the futures price of double coke rebounded sharply, and the coal inventory level at the port increased month on month; In terms of iron and steel, China’s iron ore prices have fallen, steel prices have declined as a whole, rebar stocks have increased, and steel production has increased slightly recently, but the blast furnace operating rate is still low after the festival; In terms of international energy, crude oil and natural gas prices continued to rise, the number of crude oil rigs in the United States increased significantly, and the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States fell slightly; In terms of non-ferrous metals, the collective price of non-ferrous metals rose, and the prices of gold and silver rose; In terms of energy metals, lithium prices rose at a high level and cobalt prices rose steadily; In terms of chemicals, the chemical commodity index fell slightly in the past two weeks, the price of polyester in chemicals decreased, the price of PVC and polymerized MDI decreased, and the price of chemical fertilizer raw materials decreased; In terms of building materials, the cement price index has continued to decline in the past two weeks, the market price of float flat glass has decreased first and then increased, and the China bond local government bond index has fallen; In terms of mechanical equipment, the decline in excavator sales narrowed in January 2022, and the year-on-year growth rate of construction time fell; In terms of shipping, in the past two weeks, China’s and international dry bulk index increased, and China’s export container freight rate index decreased slightly. Among them, CCFI European route index maintained an upward trend, and the US west route index fell slightly.
Risk tip: the prosperity index of some industries fails to fully describe the prosperity of the industry, the economy changes too fast, resulting in the lag of the prosperity index, the deviation of the understanding of the industry prosperity, the recurrence of covid-19 epidemic, etc
