Chemical industry
In this period, CITIC basic chemical industry index rose 2.39%, outperforming Shanghai stock index by 3.52 percentage points and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index by 4.06 percentage points, ranking fifth among 30 CITIC primary industries. Among CITIC’s tertiary sub industries, 19 rose and 14 fell, with phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry, potash fertilizer for civil explosives and carbon fiber sectors leading the performance. It is suggested to pay attention to: oil and gas exploitation, coal chemical industry, modified plastics and chemical fertilizer.
Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate sharply, product prices decline sharply, and the strength of environmental protection policies is lower than expected
Food and beverage
In the current period, the food and beverage sector fell by 3.94%, including 1.49% for food and 4.68% for beverage. During this period, Baijiu sector fell the largest and fell to 4.9%. Due to the sharp increase in geopolitical risks, the intensification of shocks in the peripheral financial markets and the net outflow of external funds, the major indexes and most sectors of the A-share market fell. Baijiu sector hoarded a larger volume of funds, the market turmoil period has been more sell-off. Risk tip: the local war has led to the global food and energy prices continue to fluctuate upward, and the marginal decline of the cost predicted in the early stage is difficult to implement. Residents’ consumption further weakened, and the basic consumption and sales of related listed companies were affected.
Medicine
Market review: in this period, the pharmaceutical industry rose by 1.71% as a whole, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 1.67% in the same period, which was stronger than the market as a whole. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 API suppliers and cro enterprises.
Risk tip: the epidemic development exceeded expectations
Machinery
In this period, CS machinery sector rose 1.01%, outperforming CSI 300 (- 1.67%) by 2.68 PCT, ranking seventh in 30 CS primary industries. Continue to focus on the mainstream track of scientific and technological growth. In the short term, the track of mainstream new energy equipment and semiconductor equipment has been fully adjusted, and there are signs of oversold rebound. It is suggested to actively participate in the opportunity of bottom reading rebound of the leader of the growth track. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to the mainstream growth track represented by new energy photovoltaic wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment and specialized new small giant enterprises. The policy has focused on stabilizing growth for many times, and the oil price has continued to rise sharply, at a high level, which is good for the leaders of oil and gas equipment and other sectors.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply; Major changes have taken place in the new energy policy.
Correspondence
In the current period, the communication (CITIC) index rose 0.96%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (- 1.67%) in the same period, ranking eighth among 30 CITIC primary industries. In terms of sub sectors, network planning and design and engineering construction, cables, communication terminals and accessories performed well, up 3.22%, 2.52% and 2.12% respectively. With the implementation of the “14th five year plan” for the information and communication industry, 5g construction will maintain a stable pace in 2022. It is expected that more than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) new base stations will be added in 2022, and the downstream supporting applications will gradually mature. At the same time, the project of “counting from the east to the west” has been fully launched, the pace of data center construction has been accelerated, and the optical module is expected to usher in a new round. Attention should be paid to relevant investment opportunities in the field of Internet of things, such as vehicle module, power Internet of things, etc. It is recommended to focus on four sectors: cable, IDC, Internet of things and operators.
Risk tips: 1) the development of Internet of things is not as expected; 2) IDC development is less than expected; 3) The popularity of 5g application is less than expected; 4) Sino US science and technology game uncertainty.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
Market review: this week, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry lost 1.64 percentage points to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index
In the current period, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (CITIC) industry closed down 3.31%; The CSI 300 index fell 1.67%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry lost the benchmark index by 1.64 percentage points. From the perspective of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, the planting sector increased the most this week, closing up 1.60%; Animal husbandry and breeding sector fell the most, down 4.91%. Suggestions: focus on the pet food sector in the high growth track and the seed industry sector with policy expectations.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in livestock and poultry prices and raw material prices; Risk that the progress of relevant policies of seed industry is less than expected; The aggravation and deterioration of African swine fever has led to the risk that the slaughter volume of pigs is less than expected.
Lithium battery
The current lithium battery index rose 3.60%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The short-term Shanghai stock index is expected to remain volatile. Combined with the industry boom and sector trend, the short-term lithium battery sector continues to see a rebound, focusing on the high-quality targets with undervalued value in subdivided areas and determined performance growth.
Risk warning: systemic risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies
Computer
In this period, the performance of the computer industry was mainly affected by the factors of “counting from the east to the west” and the war in Ukraine. In terms of the performance of the sector, the overall rise was achieved on Monday, and the differentiation of the industry was very obvious since Tuesday. Many stocks that rose the previous day have begun to adjust by a large margin. Before the end of February, there are targets represented by the science and innovation board to publish the performance express, and the market may still be vigilant against individual stocks that will announce the performance. For the coming March, the market is still vigilant about the interest rate increase of US stocks, and the upcoming two sessions are expected to release more benefits to the digital economy. In addition, the number of new medical records in a single day of the epidemic in Hong Kong continued to reach a new high, bringing more epidemic prevention pressure to the cities represented by Shenzhen, China; The war in Ukraine may affect the semiconductor gas supply, bring pressure on chip production costs, and affect the downstream product supply. Based on the above factors, we believe that we still need to be vigilant to the market before the two sessions in March.
Risk warning: uncertainty of international situation; The upper reaches of enterprises cut spending under inflation; Local debt risk release; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
Securities
The current period’s brokerage index continued to be weak, fell significantly again and hit a new low in this round of decline. The consolidation cycle of securities companies is expected to remain weak, but the overall recovery cycle of securities companies is expected to be short.
Risk tips: 1 The short-term growth rate is too fast and the growth rate is too large, resulting in the rapid adjustment of securities companies; 2. The weakening of the secondary market of equity and fixed income leads to the failure to continuously improve the operating performance of the securities industry; 3. The progress and strength of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market are less than expected.
Photovoltaic
In this period, the photovoltaic industry increased by 7.89%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The weekly turnover of the sector was RMB 2001.7 billion, with a significant volume month on month. Stocks in the sector generally rebounded, and the sentiment in the sector continued to pick up. Despite the external geopolitical impact and the downward impact of market risk appetite, the photovoltaic sector rebounded significantly this week. The photovoltaic installation and enterprise production data in the off-season in January re stimulated investors’ investment in the sector. Considering the industrial situation, valuation and market sentiment, it is impossible to judge whether it is a phased bottom in the short term. Under the background of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and the downward market risk appetite, the valuation of the sector may still be compressed. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on competitive enterprises in the field of thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and inverter.
Risk warning: the global installed demand is less than expected; Performance growth was less than expected.
In the current period, the bank (CITIC) index fell 3.68%. In January, social finance exceeded expectations, and the effect of monetary policy easing was obvious. The easing policy may come to an end in the short term. The space and pace of policy easing in the future may depend on the performance of macroeconomic data in the first quarter. Compared with the macro disturbance, we pay more attention to the improvement of the “internal strength” of the industry. It is considered that the extremely low valuation level of the current banking sector fully reflects the pessimistic expectations of the market on the credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn of the real estate industry. At the same time, considering the good performance growth and continuously improved asset quality of the bank, it is considered that the current sector has high allocation value and maintains the investment rating of “stronger than the market” of the industry.
It is suggested to focus on the head state-owned banks and joint-stock banks with solid asset quality, as well as the head urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks in regional economically developed areas.
Risk tip: the asset quality has deteriorated significantly, resulting in systemic risk.
Media
Investment view: due to the weak hedging ability superimposed by the international political turmoil, the media sector fell significantly in this period. It is expected that the media sector will pick up with the recovery of market sentiment. At the same time, the market rumors about the change of version number policy further exacerbated the risk aversion in the game sector, but according to the staff of the State Press and publication administration, they are still receiving the version number application of the game company normally. We believe that the issue of edition number is exerting an obvious suppression on the valuation of the game sector. After the normal issuance of edition number, it is expected that the valuation center of the game sector will improve and drive the performance elasticity of the game company’s game business in China.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation and virus mutation risk; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to unstable performance.
Household appliances
This week, CITIC’s home appliance industry index fell 3.96%, ranking 25th in CITIC’s first-class industry classification. At a recent press conference held by the state information office, the relevant spokesman said that a larger “tax reduction and fee reduction” policy will be implemented this year, with the goal of promoting high-quality development and scientific and technological innovation of the manufacturing industry. For the household electrical appliance industry, especially for the major electrical products that have already entered the stock market, paying attention to the iteration of technological innovation and quality upgrading is the fundamental path to adapt to the market development and promote the progress of the industry, rather than continuously seeking short-term profits with the strategy of “low-end and low price” and price war. In this way, even if the industry falls into bad internal friction and affects the long-term development of enterprises, It also hinders industrial progress and market consumption upgrading. Therefore, with the subsequent implementation of “tax reduction and fee reduction” and the assistance of corresponding policies, especially under the influence of continuous fluctuations in bulk raw materials and shipping prices on the cost side of the industry, the pressure of enterprises can be effectively released. At the same time, the benign competition led by “high quality” and “scientific and technological innovation” will promote the positive development of the industry.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
