Main points
Market view: growth first under equilibrium
In February, the market fluctuated greatly, and the main trading line switched frequently between the "steady growth" chain and growth style. Looking forward to March, on the one hand, under the background that the impact of the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine on A-share risk appetite has come to an end and the convening of the national two sessions will help the market unify its expectations of economy and policy strength, A-share risk appetite is expected to continue to pick up. But on the other hand, we need to be vigilant against the short-term constraints on the formation of A-Shares by the Fed's interest rate hike. Therefore, under the "wrist breaking" of the two forces, the market volatility may further increase. It is suggested to maintain a balanced allocation, but the position is gradually inclined to the growth style and actively participate in the market in the third stage of growth.
At the level of risk preference, there is a game between internal and external forces. ① The impact of the Russian Ukrainian war on market risk appetite ended with the landing of the Russian Ukrainian war. ② The landing of the Fed's interest rate increase will restrict US stocks and A-Shares in the following period of time, but the expected time and range are relatively limited. ③ For China, it is expected that the overall economic objectives and policy efforts at the two sessions will be slightly better than the current expectations of the market, boosting the bottom recovery of risk appetite in the A-share market.
The recovery trend continued, and there was no worry about a "good start" in the first quarter. The consumption recovery has strong endogenous power, but residents' affordability for the price rise of optional consumer goods is not strong, indicating that the consumption attitude is still cautious, and the consumption continues to recover slowly. After the Spring Festival, work resumed in an orderly manner, the steady growth policy was put into force, the ppi-cpi scissors gap gradually narrowed, and the good trend of industrial production remained unchanged. CPI remains low, PPI continues to fall, and there is no significant pressure on inflation, which will not restrict monetary easing. Infrastructure construction has made efforts to hedge the decline of real estate. Commercial housing sales are still weak, but the margin has improved. There are signs of stabilization at the investment end in February. The "good start" in the first quarter is worry free. Only when the macro data further provide evidence, the GDP growth rate is probably stronger than that in the fourth quarter of last year.
In March, the monetary policy did not change the tone of "focusing on me", the probability of MLF over investment was large, the micro liquidity was now improving, and the funds were given stable and positive support. The market is still neutral and optimistic about the liquidity in March. It is still possible to reduce the reserve requirement, and the interest rate reduction needs to be decided according to the economic data. The maturity of MLF is small and it is expected to continue in excess. The long-term interest rate is expected to fluctuate upward. The micro liquidity improvement signal has appeared, and it is expected to continue to pick up in the future.
Industry allocation: balanced allocation, growth first
In March, the overall idea of allocation is balanced, right and growth first. With the convening of the two sessions, the release of economic data from January to February and the acceleration of major events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the market probability continues to fluctuate greatly since February. Therefore, before the major events fall, we still suggest to maintain a balanced allocation in terms of configuration, but the position can be gradually inclined to the growth style. ① The great probability of growth stage adjustment has ended. Recently, both the growth main line and the diffusion sector have rebounded significantly from the low point. Combined with the resumption of growth adjustment, we believe that the high probability of phased growth adjustment since mid December has ended. ② Liquidity is loose and abundant. The central bank extended the MLF in excess in mid February and made a substantial net investment of 290 billion yuan on the 24th. Sufficient liquidity will support the valuation of growth style. ③ The relative advantages of growth performance are highly uncertain. The growth performance is more certain under the background that the financial entities continue to make profits, the decline cycle of PPI is under pressure, and the core CPI remains stable, indicating poor consumer demand. ④ The policy tends to growth industries. Recently, such as the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy and the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, the top-level design schemes of the industry have been frequently introduced, which is expected to support the risk appetite of the growth style.
On the whole, it can be configured around three main lines. Main line 1: actively participate in the market in the third stage of growth. Pay attention to the growth main line represented by double carbon and semiconductor and the communication, computer and military industry under the growth diffusion; Main line 2: under steady growth, the economic data in March is expected to exceed expectations. Under the expected difference, we can gradually layout new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation and new power grid construction, as well as relevant opportunities such as real estate and banking; Main line 3: in terms of consumption, in the short term, we will continue to pay attention to the travel chain of airport, tourism, catering, leisure and other services catalyzed by the rescue policy, as well as the concept of pharmaceutical cro, which benefits from the approval of Pfizer covid-19 drugs and is expected to pick up the performance under new orders; In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to the price rise opportunities of consumer goods such as dairy products and planting industry with price rise as the main line; In terms of theme, we will continue to pay attention to opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Risk tips
The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; There is a deviation in China's economic forecast; China's policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations; Russia Ukraine geopolitical conflict risk spillover.
