1、 From the perspective of the global market, consumer stocks represented by daily consumer goods, non daily consumer goods and medical care lead the market for a long time, and consumer stocks are the best choice for long-term investment. Since 2000, the consumer sectors in the US stock market and A-share market have accounted for 50% and 42% of the top 50 bull stocks respectively, with obvious excess returns.
2、 Sharing consumption expansion and consumption upgrading dividends is the main line of medium and long-term investment. 1) China’s economy is undergoing a transformation from investment driven to consumption, service and science and technology driven; 2) China’s per capita GDP exceeded US $10000, and wealth accumulation supported consumption expansion. From the perspective of international experience, after the per capita GDP exceeds US $10000, the marginal consumption of residents rises with the growth of income, and the proportion of service consumption rises; 3) The change of population structure gives birth to multiple consumption demand. After 65-75, the “rich generation” with the most wealth accumulation has a strong willingness to consume; The post-85-90 generation has become the backbone of society and the main force of family and quality consumption; The younger generation after 95-00 grew up in the fastest development stage of mobile Internet, leading the rise of new consumption and national tide; 4) Scientific and technological innovation drives a new wave of consumption upgrading. New technologies enrich supply and stimulate consumption potential; New demand guides the direction of innovation and assists high-quality supply.
3、 The path of China’s consumption upgrading. 1) From subsistence consumption to development enjoyment consumption. For example, automobile electric intelligence, time-saving transportation mode, convenient shopping mode, etc; 2) The miniaturization of family structure leads to personalized and convenient consumption. Due to the changes of population and family structure, more and more consumer demand in China is met in the retail models of small and medium-sized businesses such as convenience stores and takeout close to residents, and the small household appliance market is developing rapidly; 3) Personalized and self pleasing consumption is on the rise. The young generation’s pursuit of unique and novel consumption forms and rich national feelings have become the main driving force for the growth of personalized consumption in China, and continue to lead the rapid development of fashion jewelry, fashion clothing, hand-made fashion games, new food and beverage and other trend markets; 4) The rise of local brands. With the transformation of China’s core consumer groups and the return of Chinese traditional culture, we have also ushered in the rapid development of domestic brands in clothing, beauty and other fields.
Four, three main lines of investment under the upgrading of consumption: 1) in the field of consumer goods, we focus on high-end / high-end Baijiu, which is benefited from the volume and price rise, and the new products of popular foods under the trend of health. Under the trend of family miniaturization, pay attention to prefabricated dishes, compound condiments, cold chain, etc. related to convenient consumption; Under the active guidance of policies, overseas consumption continues to return, paying attention to the theme of tax exemption and the rise of domestic goods; 2) Consumer durables are upgraded to comfort, environmental protection and intelligence, focusing on: new energy vehicles, smart wearable devices, smart homes, etc; 3) In the field of service consumption, the application of new technologies drives the iterative upgrading of consumption scenarios, focusing on online shopping, online medical treatment, etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations exceed expectations; The implementation of the policy is less than expected; Technology advancement is not as expected.
（ Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) ）
