Key points of the report:
Experience of German capital market:
① overview of 50 years: the bull market in the 1990s, the counter attack of small and medium-sized markets after 2000, the long-term outperformance of consumption and science and technology, and the performance of manufacturing industry is average. ② 19731989: economic recovery after the oil crisis and the opening of globalization. The pioneer financial industry of globalization is better than the pillar of manufacturing industry. ③ 19901999: with the continuation of globalization and the rise of the information technology revolution, the computer share price outperformed and the automobile market value expanded, but the share price lost, mainly due to the weak performance growth and the replacement of the protagonists of globalization. ④ 20 Han’S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) : in the shock market under the background of economic recession, the global boom of communication equipment increased rapidly, outperforming China’s traditional industries. ⑤ From 2009 to 2020, in the digital transformation of “industry 4.0”, the benefits of computers and hardware rank first, and the benefits of traditional industries such as construction and energy are average.
Enlightenment of a shares:
① the medium and long-term theme of energy transformation and digital economy is more important than the main line of phased steady growth. ② The old cycle and the transformation of traditional industries, but the stock price performance may not be as good as the protagonists of the new story, such as new energy, cloud computing, aiot, etc. ③ The difference between domestic demand market and foreign investment is the difference between Chinese and German stock markets. The investment opportunities in consumption and medicine brought by the deepening aging still deserve attention. ④ High end manufacturing medium and small disk or medium and long-term configuration direction. ⑤ Industries from the perspective of M & A: new economic sectors such as medicine, chemical industry, machinery and computer. ⑥ Individual shares: Autek China Inc(300595) , Beijing Bdstar Navigation Co.Ltd(002151) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , etc.
Text summary
50 years of German Stock Market: the bull market in the 1990s, with long-term outperformance in consumption and technology. The German capital market has been in a bull market for nearly 50 years, with the highest return from 1990 to 1999. Science and technology industries such as communication equipment, computer and aviation / national defense industry index have achieved annual returns of 19%, 18% and 15% respectively since listing, leading all industries. Among the industries completely covering 19732020, the industries with the highest long-term annualized income are mostly concentrated in the field of consumption, including personal care / drugstores / supermarkets, personal goods, etc.
2000: Watershed of large and small sector style. Before 2000, the blue chip market outperformed; But since then, the performance of small and medium-sized market is much better than that of large market blue chip. There are three reasons: ① relatively loose and stable monetary environment is more favorable for medium and small cap; ② At the policy level, improve the capital market structure to support the listing and financing of small and medium-sized enterprises; ③ The listing intention of invisible champions has been improved to enhance the attractiveness of small and medium-sized stocks.
Leading industries at different stages: the epitome of the global wave. ① From 1973 to 1989, the long-term logic of globalization was more important than the driving force of short-term economic recovery. The market value expansion and stock price rise of the financial industry were among the top. ② From 1990 to 1999, with the continuation of globalization and the rise of the revolution of information technology, computers rode the dust, while cars were relatively mediocre. ③ From 2000 to 2008, the volatile market in the context of economic recession, small market value industries with high global prosperity and greater flexibility, and communication equipment and REITs were more favored by the capital market. ④ From 2009 to 2020, the stock market mapping of “industry 4.0”: the gains of computers and hardware rank first, and the construction and energy industries are in general.
Enlightenment of a shares: Investment logic under the background of energy transformation and digital economy. ① The medium and long-term theme of energy transformation and digital economy deserves more attention than the main line of phased steady growth; ② The performance of the old cycle and traditional industries may not be as good as that of the new story protagonists, new energy, cloud computing and aiot; ③ The difference between domestic demand market and foreign investment is the difference between Chinese and German stock markets. The deepening of China’s aging will bring medium and long-term investment opportunities in consumption and pharmaceutical industries. ④ High end manufacturing medium and small disk or medium and long-term configuration direction. ⑤ Direction selection from the perspective of M & A: new economic sectors such as medicine, chemical industry, machinery and computer have ranked first in the number of M & A in recent five years, which is consistent with the high-tech direction encouraged by the policy.
Risk warning: technology development and policy promotion are not as expected; Historical experience does not represent the future.
