Key investment points:
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, and commodity prices responded. The sudden escalation of the situation in Ukraine caused great fluctuations in the global market, with major stock indexes falling significantly and a variety of commodities rising significantly. According to the output proportion of Russia and Ukraine in the world's major commodities, it may cause great disturbance to the following energy, chemical, metal and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other commodities.
Energy and chemical industry: (1) crude oil: it may face upward risks in the short term: Russian crude oil accounts for 12.6% of global production, while the international market can only withstand 1% supply fluctuation. In addition, if Russia is subject to sanctions such as restrictions on oil exports, oil prices will have a greater upward risk and have a greater impact on inflation and the economy. However, in the medium and long term, the current price has been at a high level of about 10% in the past 30 years, at a high premium. Clean energy substitution may further restrict the room for oil price rise. (2) Natural gas: the price still has a large space, and may push up the price of nitrogen fertilizer. Russia's natural gas production accounts for 16.6% of the world, and the supply shock is higher than that of crude oil. The price of crude oil with the same calorific value is about 3.6-4 times that of natural gas, and the price of natural gas is obviously at a low point. Driven by carbon neutralization policy and superimposed with geopolitical disturbances, natural gas prices may still have great room to rise. At the same time, as an important cost component of nitrogen fertilizer, the price rise of natural gas may push up the cost of nitrogen fertilizer.
Metals: (1) precious metals: Russian palladium ore accounts for 37% of the world, with significant supply impact; Russian gold mines account for about 10% of the world. The gold price is significantly related to the real yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds. The rise of risk aversion and inflation may push up the performance of gold price at the same time. (2) Base metal: 1) nickel: Russian nickel reserves account for 7.2%. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have a great impact on supply, while the rapid growth of downstream power batteries may drive the rise of demand. At the same time, nickel inventory is almost at the lowest position in 10 years. Under the impact of supply, price elasticity may be more obvious. 2) Aluminum: Russia is the second largest producer of primary aluminum, with low inventory providing rising power; 3) Copper: in 2020, Russia's refined copper production and export accounted for 4.2% and 8.9% of the world respectively, but the export has decreased significantly by 40% in 2021. The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on copper may be relatively limited.
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : in addition to Russia's important position in global energy supply and metal minerals, Russia and Ukraine are important agricultural exporting countries in the world, especially core varieties such as wheat and corn. On the one hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the interruption of agricultural production and the obstruction of foreign exports, affecting the global supply of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ; On the other hand, the price rise of energy products, nitrogen fertilizer, potassium fertilizer and other agrochemical products mentioned above will interfere with the upcoming crop production season in the northern hemisphere. Affected by this, we believe that the prices of relevant major Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) such as wheat, corn and soybean may rise further.
Risk tips: (1) conflict mitigation and supply recovery; (2) The global economic growth is lower than expected, and the demand for bulk commodities slows down; (3) The epidemic worsened again and the demand slowed down significantly.
