Event overview:
Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to escalate, the Russian army carried out a multi-point military attack on Ukraine, and the two sides exchanged fire in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
Analysis and judgment:
Precision guided weapons have opened the way, land, sea and air multi arms joint operations, and the Russian army has displayed a model of modern war, but there are still areas that have not been brought into full play in night operations, unmanned operations, amphibious force delivery and so on.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, NATO expanded eastward for five consecutive rounds, the strategic buffer space between Russia and Europe was squeezed, and Ukraine became a country directly exposed to the front line of major power confrontation. Ukraine’s choice of strategic direction, NATO’s eastward expansion and the US Russian geostrategic game are the deep reasons for the war. The Chinese political factors of relevant parties also had an impact on the outbreak of the war.
Precision guided weapons enable the Russian army to quickly destroy the central nervous system of Ukrainian military forces and the Navy, air force and air defense forces, laying the foundation for subsequent operations. At the beginning of the war, the Russian Defense Ministry said that it was using precision guided weapons to destroy the military infrastructure, air defense facilities, military airports and aviation forces of the Ukrainian army. The precision guided weapons used by the Russian army include “Iskander” – M tactical ballistic missile, “Iskander” – K cruise missile, kh-101 air launched cruise missile and kh-31p air launched anti radiation missile. These missiles are the backbone equipment of the Russian army in recent years, and their accuracy control is within 20 meters hundreds of kilometers away. In particular, the “Iskander” series missiles have an accuracy of less than 5 meters. Their missile systems include ballistic missile m and cruise missile K, with a range covering medium and short range. They are the backbone of Russia’s new generation of campaign and tactical missiles, The missile can carry many types of warheads, such as cluster submunitions, and carry out precision attacks on small targets and plane targets.
Land, sea and air three-dimensional joint operations, multi arms collaborative system confrontation. In this military operation, the Russian army has realized the full-dimensional and multi-level deployment of troops. A variety of Russian made weapons have appeared collectively. The joint operation of land, sea and air and the coordinated attack vividly reflect the master level of local war under the condition of high-quality informatization. Russian helicopter air assault forces quickly seized Antonov airport on the outskirts of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. The Russian Navy conducted amphibious attacks on the coastal areas of Ukraine from the two directions of the Azov Sea and the Black Sea to cut off Ukraine’s potential maritime support routes. The Russian army made use of strong continental armored forces to break in and intersperse from the East and north land borders and the southern Crimean Peninsula, forming a situation of simultaneous centripetal assault, and realized the leapfrog encirclement of Ukrainian forces with less troops.
Single soldier infrared, UAV, amphibious attack ship or short board of Russian army. The Russian army has few night operations, which may indicate that the night vision ability of individual soldiers is insufficient, and the penetration rate of individual infrared equipment needs to be improved. If we can make up for the shortcomings, it may greatly shorten the combat time and achieve the strategic goal as soon as possible. The Russian army rarely uses UAVs. UAVs can realize various strategic and tactical tasks such as reconnaissance and early warning, tracking and positioning, special operations, relay communication, precision guidance, information confrontation, battlefield search and rescue, damage assessment and so on. They have gradually become an indispensable standard force in the intelligent war system. The Russian Navy lacks the assistance of amphibious attack ships. The limited surface warships only have attack capability and can not quickly send power to the coast. The only available landing ships are six.
The logic that national defense strength should match economic strength is strengthened, and investment opportunities in areas such as precision strike weapons represented by missiles and weapon platforms represented by aircraft and supporting systems are emphasized.
1) precision strike weapons, represented by missiles. With the characteristics of precise guidance and efficient damage, missiles are an indispensable force in the modern war system. At the same time, the demand for daily training is increasing, facing the strong demand for replenishment of inventory, superimposing consumption attributes, and there is a large space in the future. Missile supporting products include seeker, missile chip, missile power supply, missile engine, resistance capacitance sensor, photoelectric transmission cable, etc. the missile industry chain is relatively short, the difficulty of capacity expansion is relatively small, the production cycle is relatively short, and the performance elasticity of relevant enterprises is relatively large.
2) combat platform, represented by aircraft and UAV. According to the overall production arrangement, production rhythm and task volume during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the probability of the main engine plant maintaining steady growth is high. At present, the maturity and flexible production line of advanced fighters are significantly improved compared with those before, which helps to reduce the friction cost in the production process and improve the overall production efficiency and profitability. Following the heavy volume of fighters, the progress of large transport aircraft is also more optimistic. The scale effect brought by the capacity release of the main engine plant and the implementation of equity incentive will bring greater room for improvement of profitability.
3) aircraft core system, represented by aeroengine. There are two core logics for the obvious growth of aeroengine demand: accelerating the renewal of train loading of new military aircraft and shortening the replacement cycle of existing military aircraft. On the one hand, China’s military aircraft as a whole is in a large cycle of accelerating the upgrading of new models and old models. The number of military aircraft and the proportion of advanced military aircraft will be significantly increased. As the core support of military aircraft, aeroengines have deterministic incremental demand; On the other hand, in recent years, the frequency of actual combat exercises and training, daily patrols and the types and number of military aircraft involved have increased significantly, the engine replacement cycle of existing military aircraft has been shortened, and the attribute of aeroengine semi consumables has appeared. Affected by the technical difficulty, product development characteristics and supporting cycle, the aeroengine industry chain is delayed by one and a half to two years compared with the aircraft industry chain. After the aircraft, the aeroengine will also gradually usher in a large-scale period, and the growth advantages of relevant enterprises will begin to be reflected.
Beneficiary:
Missile industry chain: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , zhenradium technology, Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) , Qinhuangdao Tianqin Equipment Manufacturing Co.Ltd(300922) , etc;
Aircraft industry chain: Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Aerospace Ch Uav Co.Ltd(002389) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , etc;
Aeroengine industry chain: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , etc.
Risk tips:
Uncertainty of the international situation; The confirmation of military procurement and settlement is less than expected; The progress of equipment development and batch production was less than expected.
