This week’s view:
Planting industry chain: in February 22, 2022, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council made the suggestions on promoting the key work of Rural Revitalization in 2022, that is, No. 1 central document. This year’s No. 1 central document puts the grain production and the important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply at the top priority. It puts forward three key tasks: steady output, structural adjustment and conservation of cultivated land. The document pointed out that we should firmly hold the bottom line of ensuring national food security, make every effort to do a good job in food production and important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply, practically adjust the agricultural structure on the spot, strictly abide by the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, ensure that the sown area of grain is stable and the output remains above 1.3 trillion kg, and we must see assessable results in expanding soybean and oil production. The document also pointed out that it is necessary to vigorously promote the tackling of key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources, so as to fully implement the action plan for the revitalization of seed industry. In addition, accelerating the general survey and collection of agricultural germplasm resources, strengthening accurate identification and evaluation, carrying out the pilot of subsidies after the R & D and promotion of major varieties, implementing the seed law, implementing the system of substantive derived varieties, strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights of the seed industry, and severely cracking down on illegal and criminal acts such as license infringement in accordance with the law are the key to the revitalization of the seed industry. The No. 1 central document issued by the Central Committee has continued to emphasize the importance of seed industry. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2022 has been six years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the stable target focuses on recommending Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , the leader of China’s sugar industry, and the flexible target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks with a valuation of only 11 times Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) . We expect that the performance elasticity in 2022 will come from the production of new lysine capacity by the end of 2021. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 12.43 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.07% on a weekly basis. In February 22, 2022, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the Central Committee document No. 1 central document on the key work of Promoting Rural Revitalization in 2022. This year No. 1 central document has adjusted the goal of “protecting pig production capacity” to “stabilize pig production capacity” and put forward for the first time that the production should change radically. It can be seen that at present, China’s pig production capacity has been surplus. It is necessary to stabilize the production capacity of fertile sows at the normal population of 41 million. At that time, it can also effectively stabilize pig prices and stabilize pig production. At the same time, Document No. 1 once again included African classical swine fever in the scope of key prevention and control, and proposed to do a good job in the prevention and control of the source of African classical swine fever. The document also proposed that the development of new breeding facilities such as industrialized intensive breeding and three-dimensional ecological breeding should be encouraged, and the breeding industry should be gradually developed in the direction of scale, intensification and automation. From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected.
