Key investment points:
This week, the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry was 144.94, up 2.06 month on month, and the prosperity improved month on month. Comprehensively consider the operation and prosperity of chemical enterprises, and give the industry a “recommended” rating.
Investment suggestion: leading enterprises usher in the period of strategic layout.
On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission issued several policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy. Those related to chemical industry include: starting and implementing the technological transformation project of energy conservation and carbon reduction in petrochemical enterprises; Accelerate the implementation of the five-year action plan to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and the major projects of the national special plan in the manufacturing field, and start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects; Further unblock international transportation, strengthen the supervision of the charging behavior of relevant subjects in the shipping market, and investigate and deal with the illegal charging behavior according to law; Implement the policy of excluding the consumption of new renewable energy and raw materials from the total energy consumption control; Optimize the assessment frequency, and the energy consumption intensity target shall be assessed as a whole within the 14th Five Year Plan period, so as to avoid limiting the normal energy consumption of enterprises due to the progress of energy consumption indicators. We believe that the approval probability of some accumulated large chemical projects increases. With the recent sharp rise in Brent crude oil price and the rebound in spring demand, the price of chemical products has ushered in a general rise, and the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry monitored by us has rebounded again. We believe that at the current time point, the leading enterprises in the chemical industry have entered the period of strategic layout. From the perspective of lengthening history, the prosperity of the chemical industry has rebounded since 2016. From the perspective of the large capacity cycle, it is still in the upward period of the capacity cycle. The supply side reform plays a key role in suppressing the capacity expansion, while the demand side fluctuations have brought periodic inventory cycle fluctuations, such as the price decline caused by the decline in demand from the second half of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, The decline caused by covid-19 epidemic in early 2020 and the decline in demand caused by real estate impact in the second half of 2022. However, from the supply side, the capital expenditure of the overall chemical listed companies is still limited by policies and cannot be released smoothly. The final result is that the profit center of chemical products continues to rise, and the net interest center of almost major chemical leading enterprises gradually rises. At the current time point, China’s stable economic policy continues to increase, the decline in China’s demand is expected to gradually ease, the foreign covid-19 epidemic prevention policy is gradually relaxed, and the demand is rising again. However, under the dual carbon background, the capital expenditure of the global chemical industry is still suppressed, and the prosperity of the chemical industry is expected to continue to rise. From the perspective of quantity, with the introduction of China’s stable economic policy, some policies previously restricting the capital expenditure of leading enterprises are expected to be adjusted. It has been seen that the energy consumption of raw materials does not occupy the energy consumption index, the probability of new production capacity of leading enterprises being approved this year has increased, and the long-term growth expectation has reappeared, but the capacity expansion of the whole industry is still suppressed. In 2021, some leading chemical enterprises have recalled some share prices. From the perspective of three years, with the implementation of the project, the profits of leading chemical enterprises are expected to enter the growth track again and usher in a good opportunity for layout.
At the same time, the loss of profits in downstream industries due to high raw material costs will be alleviated and prices will be gradually transmitted to the downstream. The new material industry will be driven by new energy and emerging industries and usher in a good opportunity for development Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered a period of rapid expansion. We believe that the core means to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the chemical industry is to use technological innovation to bring changes in energy structure, energy consumption level, raw material structure and product structure. Technological innovation is the key. Innovation can continue to grow. The R & D cost of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) in the third quarter of 2021 reached 930 million yuan, The construction in progress is 28.1 billion yuan, accounting for 46% of the fixed assets, of which the cash inflow of fixed assets purchased and constructed in the third quarter reached 7.6 billion yuan, reaching a record high. According to the EIA, Wanhua Fujian Industrial Park plans to expand the MDI project to 1.6 million tons / year (Wanhua isocyanate company), and the TDI project to 360000 tons / year (Wanhua Fujian), Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) entering the rapid expansion period. We expect that Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 10000 tons of ternary battery materials and 60000 tons of biodegradable polyester materials will be put into operation in 2022, bringing new catalysts. Under the double carbon background, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ‘s MDI, as an excellent thermal insulation material, is expected to usher in a period of demand explosion. Because the company has the ability of R & D and innovation, can expand capacity and grow without worry, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) .
Private refining ushered in a good opportunity for development. The prosperity of large-scale refining and chemical projects itself is at the middle and lower level in history. At present, it is gradually extending to the downstream. A series of new chemical material projects are expected to be implemented and the growth capacity will rise again. Enterprises such as Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , etc. are recommended. Satellite chemical phase I ethylene project is gradually put into operation. The route of importing low-cost ethane from the United States to produce low-carbon olefins has been opened. The company is expected to continue to expand production capacity and expand downstream with low-cost raw materials, which deserves special attention.
The leading development of coal chemical industry has ushered in a turnaround. With the relaxation of the policy on energy consumption of raw materials, the coal chemical projects blocked in the early stage are expected to be implemented, and the growth of enterprises such as Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , etc. is prominent. The tire industry has entered the strategic layout period. We judge that 2021q3 is the lowest point of the industry. In 2021q4 and 2022q1, the profits of the tire industry begin to improve. Based on three judgments, first, the supply shrinks and small and medium-sized tire enterprises begin to shut down. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, on February 24, 2022, the operating rate of Shandong semi steel tire enterprises was 55.36%, and the operating rate under normal conditions was about 70%, The operating rate of Shandong all steel tire enterprises is 52.87%, which is more than 70% under normal circumstances. Double control and negative cash flow are two reasons, especially the net operating cash flow of some listed companies in the second quarter of 2021 has turned negative; Second, the price of sea freight has been loosened. This week, the FBX index from China to the western US port was US $156148/feu, up + 2.61% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was US $179011/feu, up + 5.97% from last week; Third, in December 2021, China’s monthly output of commercial vehicles was 380000, an increase of 7.7% month on month, the output of automobiles was 2.91 million, an increase of 12.5% month on month, and the output of trucks was 331000, an increase of 6.9% month on month. The bottom of the tire is reversed. Under the background of supply contraction and demand improvement, according to incomplete statistics of China tire commercial WeChat official account, 15 tire enterprises announced the price increase in 2022. Overall, the price increase of this round is more than 2%-5%, and the highest increase is 10%. Nine tire enterprises in foreign markets have announced price increases, with a maximum price increase of 16%. We believe that the profit margin level of tires will gradually recover. In the long run, Chinese tire enterprises have outstanding cost performance advantages in the middle and low-end market, import substitution in the high-end market through channels, and the two major trends of internationalization and branding are irreversible. Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . These three enterprises have a significant expansion of overseas production capacity in 2022, as well as rubber additives enterprises Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) Conveyor belt enterprise Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) .
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is sustainable, and the transformation of new energy is in progress. The price of phosphate rock continued to rise, from 350 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 642.5 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 84%; Ammonium monohydrate for wet process industry in Southwest China rebounded from 5300 yuan / ton on September 23, 2021 to 6000 yuan / ton on February 18, 2022, reversing upward again; The price of yellow phosphorus was adjusted back to 36000 yuan / ton, up 53% from 23500 yuan / ton in August 2021; Enterprises with industrial chain integration will benefit. In addition, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer decreased significantly in August 2021, and the export was limited. As a compound fertilizer industry with squeezed terminal profits, the profits gradually improved. In the first half of 2022, iron phosphate of Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) will be put into operation, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain is still in the transition period from traditional fertilizer industry to new energy materials. We focus on phosphorus chemical enterprises with industrial chain integration and fast transformation speed, including Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) merger draft has been released. At the same time, recommend Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , the rising price of sugar substitutes Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) and Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , which can maintain performance growth under the pressure of rising raw material prices, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , which expand to new energy materials.
Chemical industry leaders are the kings of the future. According to our observation, there are a number of leading companies in China’s chemical industry. Compared with international competitors, they show obvious efficiency advantages in terms of rate of return, labor efficiency and turnover. The slowdown of China’s GDP growth and the control of carbon emissions in the future have led to the concentration of resources in all aspects to the leading chemical enterprises, superimposed with intelligent manufacturing, R & D and innovation, and the increase of the leading market share is accelerating. At present, we believe that China’s leading companies have the ability to plan a global blueprint and move towards global leaders. We suggest that we should work with excellent enterprises and invest in those enterprises with efficient execution. This efficient ability will make the profitability of Chinese enterprises higher than that of international competitors, with higher rate of return and larger scale in the future. Therefore, the market value of foreign giants is far from the ceiling of Chinese enterprises. For example, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , which is building an integrated industrial chain, continuously increasing R & D investment, expanding in multiple categories and marching towards a first-class chemical new material company with global operation, has made a breakthrough in original packaging replacement, and China and foreign countries go hand in hand. Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , which is the top five in the global tire industry in 2030, has a high starting point, high standard Build Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) refineries with high efficiency.
We focus on the leaders in various sub sectors that are still underrated. For example, the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ) The Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, glyphosate leader Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) leader in the field of inorganic new materials Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , satellite chemistry in the field of C2 / C3 Sweetener faucet Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , plant growth regulator faucet Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) , titanium dioxide faucet Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , spandex and adipic acid faucet Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , organic fine chemicals faucet Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , dicamba enterprise Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) , grease chemical industry faucet Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) , etc.
U.S. Commerce Department of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the local time 2020. On May 15, 2020, the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce in the U.S. Department of Commerce in the U.S. on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020 May 15, the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 15, 2020 May 15, 2020, the local time of the local time of the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020. A statement said that it would comprehensively restrict Huawei from purchasing semiconthat use U.S. software and technology to produce semiconthat uses U.S. software and technology. The strategic position of semiconductor materials is becoming increasingly prominent, and the strategic position of semiconductor materials is becoming increasingly prominent. It is suggested to focus on the proposal to focus attention on companies such as Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83838383838323 \\\\\\the. In addition, we hope that the new materials will continue to expand continuously, and have strong technical content of polymer anti-aging leader Rianlon Corporation(300596) , thermoplastic elastomer head Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.Ltd(002838) , brine extraction lithium technology leader Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) .
Industry price trend
According to wind, as of Friday, Brent and WTI futures prices closed at US $98.57 and US $91.94 / barrel respectively, with a week on week ratio of 5.3% and 0.31%.
This week, after Russia supported the independence of eastern Ukraine and stationed troops, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to heat up, and the international crude oil fluctuated and rose. In the early part of the week, the negotiations between the United States and Iran on resuming the nuclear agreement are said to have entered the final stage. Restarting the Iranian nuclear agreement may increase market supply, but the Ukrainian crisis still supports the market atmosphere and the trend of international crude oil prices fluctuates. In the late part of the week, the conflict in Donbas escalated and the violent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe warmed up again, which exacerbated investors’ concerns about the interruption of energy supply, and the price of crude oil futures fluctuated and rose.
Risk tips: macroeconomic changes; Oil price fluctuation; Environmental protection and relaxation; The economy fell sharply; The product price fluctuates greatly; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations.
