Event: since the beginning of the year, the price of white card paper has risen in two rounds. White card leader has issued two rounds of price increase letters since the beginning of the year, with each round of price increase of 200 yuan / ton. According to Zhuo Chuang information, as of February 24, the reference price of Chinese white card was 6205 yuan / ton; Since the middle of February, the market in Guangdong has increased the most, and the paper price has increased by 516 yuan / ton in two weeks.
This round of paper price rise is based on the marginal change of supply-demand relationship driven by external demand. [demand side]: export orders are in short supply, foreign demand is strong, and domestic demand is stable. 1) External demand: the export volume of white cards has increased significantly since Q3 last year, mainly due to the shrinking supply abroad due to factors such as the epidemic and the shortage of raw materials. China's supply is stable and export orders are in short supply. From October to December, the monthly export volume was 5.4/6.572000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.8% / 37.9% / 97.7% respectively. 2) Domestic demand: 21q4 is still in the peak season of traditional consumption of white cards. The monthly apparent consumption of Q4 white cards is 67.4/66.2711000 tons respectively. Affected by the overall consumption downturn, it has dropped year-on-year, but the chain comparison is + 27.6% / - 1.9% / 7.5% respectively. Domestic demand is stable. [supply side]: the white card competition pattern is the best, and the leading synergy is prominent. In 2021, China's white card production capacity CR3 exceeded 80%. Under high concentration, the leading synergy increased significantly, which is reflected in the unified and more rational price policy. Combined with the current price rise of 200 yuan per ton of white card, the remaining four rounds of price rise follow the current price rise level of the sun. [cost side]: the rise of pulp price forms the cost side support of paper price. Since November, due to the impact of weather, factory strike and tight transportation capacity, the supply of pulp has been tight and the price has strengthened; Moreover, the production of downstream base paper is basically in the peak season, and the recent price increase letters of various paper types have been sent frequently, further supporting the strength of pulp price. Pulp and paper influence each other and rise in linkage, forming a strong support for the cost side.
It is expected that the short-term paper price of white card will be strong, which does not rule out the possibility that paper enterprises will raise slightly again. Demand side: in terms of external demand, according to public information, export orders are still in short supply, and some paper enterprises have tight production scheduling during the Spring Festival holiday. Based on the situation of epidemic prevention and control in major export areas, it is expected that the export boom is expected to continue, and foreign demand will become the main driving factor; In terms of domestic demand, the traditional peak season is from the end of April. Combined with the inventory level, it is expected that the downstream will be more willing to replenish inventory, and domestic demand will maintain steady growth. Supply side. The competition pattern of white card is the best, and the synergy between leaders is significant. The new production capacity is concentrated in large-scale paper mills. At the end of the year, Guangxi Taiyang and Guangxi Jingui (subordinate to Taiyang and app group respectively) released 900000 tons of white card production capacity respectively, and the short-term capacity climbing has limited pressure on the market supply. In addition, according to the company's announcement and Zhuo Chuang information, the new social card production capacity in 22 years focused on Q4 release, with limited impact on the whole year.
Investment advice. Continue to recommend Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , the company's production and sales advantages complement each other and have strong competitiveness α As a result, the food card has a high outlook under the background of plastic prohibition and high growth of new business forms. It is expected that the company will enter the stage of quarterly increase in scale. Recommended Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , the price of cultural paper has increased recently. The company has the advantage of Forest Pulp paper integration, and its profitability is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) . The company is the leader in the white card industry and accounts for the highest proportion of white card business. It is expected to fully benefit from the performance elasticity brought by the recovery of the market.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuated violently, and the price increase was lower than expected.
