The market came too fast, like a tornado. In 2021, the market ended and entered the countdown. Looking back on the frequent switching of market hot spots this year, it was not very friendly to many top flow fund managers. Some netizens joked that the great gods were suffering. Some Mesozoic fund managers who stick to the way of balanced investment are relatively strong.
An insightful and surprisingly upright balanced investment flagman, the three funds that have worked for more than one year: Changsheng Tongsheng growth optimization, Changsheng manufacturing selection and Changsheng core growth, all have a return of more than 35%, of which the return of Changsheng Tongsheng growth optimization has doubled. He is Guo Kun, the standard bearer of balanced investment and deputy general manager of Changsheng fund.
insightful knowledge and in-depth research
keep sensitive to new things
When it comes to Guo Kun, many peers have the impression that he is a "research madman", either in research or on the way of research. According to the statistics of authoritative media, in the first half of 2021 alone, Guo Kun conducted more than 30 investigations, ranking first among fund managers. In Guo Kun's view, research is a process of "seeing from a small point of view". The real in-depth research is to judge whether the company's current ability can be replicated for a long time, which requires an understanding of the essence of the company, which is the in-depth research of differentiation.
Specifically, Guo Kun pointed out that the research on newly covered enterprises mainly focuses on their ownership structure, management structure, corporate governance, long-term planning, industry space, competition pattern, etc; For enterprises with long-term coverage, they will communicate regularly and track the current situation, mainly focusing on their short-term operation and short-term development plan. In the past year, affected by the epidemic, online research has increased significantly, and the frequency of communication with covered enterprises has also increased. At the same time, it also has more time to conduct in-depth exchanges and discussions with the research team for enterprises.
Turning to the highly popular concept of the meta universe recently, Guo Kun said that he was paying attention to and discussing. For emerging fields and new things, whether there will be investment opportunities or not, he will actively learn and remain sensitive to new things. Although it is not inclined to invest in industries or companies in the introduction period, it will continue to track and strive to explore possible investment opportunities.
core + satellite strategy
forging the way of balanced investment
Since this year, the industry rotation acceleration and frequent hot spot switching have also made more and more small partners realize that the money earned by luck will eventually be lost by strength. As Guo Kun said, "equity investment is a process of accumulating wealth and making little progress. Some biased tricks may bring short-term rapid growth in the net value of the fund, but they will eventually be paid back."
For more than ten years, Guo Kun has never been in charge of the track, never taken the extreme, adopted the strategy of "core + satellite", and the industry distribution is balanced and comprehensive, forming a balanced investment path of "growth first + cycle supplemented". The main body is dominated by long-term growth assets and supplemented by periodic assets, However, the specific allocation proportion of medium and long-term growth targets and partial periodic targets mainly depends on the comparison of current valuation. "The core idea of my fund management is to create long-term returns. I hope to focus on the selection of companies with outstanding aspects based on long-term indicators such as industry growth, company core competitiveness and management governance ability. I don't think much about the short-term game in the market."
According to the announcements over the years, the position concentration of Guo Kun's managed funds is low, the industry configuration is relatively decentralized and balanced, and relatively prefers mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, medicine, biology and other industries. In the selection of individual stocks, based on the essence of the enterprise, it is preferred to select high-quality companies with perfect governance, excellent management and core barriers.
This is also related to Guo Kun's ability circle. At the beginning of his career, Guo Kun served as an analyst of new energy and household appliances and leader of manufacturing research group in sunshine asset management. Thousands of research and research experience in the manufacturing industry, tens of thousands of research and development experience, in-depth research on emerging industries and related companies emerging in the economic transformation stage of high-end equipment manufacturing, new consumption, Internet plus. Its all-round research and continuous tracking of individual stocks have achieved its fundamental investment philosophy with obvious Kun style, which is good at the layout of bottom positions on the left, super select individual stocks, tends to hold for a long time and low turnover rate.
This investment philosophy is reflected in the fund's performance and continues to receive positive feedback. According to wind statistics, as of December 13, 2021, Changsheng Tongsheng growth optimization, which Guo Kun took over from May 27, 2020, has doubled its income, with a return of 106.53%, ranking among the top 7% of its kind! The newly issued Changsheng manufacturing selection and Changsheng core growth in August and September last year, under the background that the fund established in the same period was deeply in negative return, the return since its establishment exceeded 35%! The ability to control pullback is strong, and the worst pullback for 6 consecutive months does not exceed - 8%, only - 7.48% and - 3.81% respectively!
Among them, Changsheng manufacturing selection a has returned 37% since its establishment on August 26, 2020, compared with the benchmark of 28.93% in the same period, ranking 284 / 1228 in the same category, and the CSI 300 index of 6.76% in the same period.
Changsheng core growth a, established on September 23, 2020, has achieved a return of 36.05% since its establishment, 25.24% higher than the benchmark, an annualized return of 28.58%, ranking 364 / 1292 in the same category, and the CSI 300 index reached 9.66% in the same period.
Guo Kun's "good" is being discovered and noted by institutional investors. According to the statistics of the fund interim report in 2021, the proportion of preferred institutions of Changsheng Tongsheng growth has exceeded 60%, reaching 61.16%!
growth style will still be better than cycle
focus on two directions
Looking forward to 2022, Guo Kun has become more optimistic about the market, especially the growth industries: the valuation of consumer, pharmaceutical and other industries affected by the epidemic, high base and some policy expectations has become reasonable or even undervalued due to the sharp retreat of stock prices; Growth industries with good performance such as new energy are still continuing their popular industrial trends, and these trends have even become more certain.
According to Guo Kun's analysis, the demand outlook of the new energy industry, especially the new energy vehicle industry, remains upward. Since this year, it has continued to exceed market expectations. Although the increase is large, it mostly comes from the growth of performance rather than the expansion of valuation, and the valuation cost performance is still good. At present, the market risk is smaller than that at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. In the short term, it is worried that the power restriction policy in December will have an impact on the market, which may lead to a decline in performance caused by enterprise capacity constraints, especially in industries with low performance growth. In the later stage, Guo Kun thought that the performance of growth style would still be better than the cycle.
For the recent continuous fluctuations of cyclical stocks, Guo Kun believes that the original relationship between supply and demand of cyclical stocks has been broken due to the power restriction policy, the supply side capacity cannot be released, the increase in profits caused by the rise of product prices is offset by the decline in production, and the actual performance has not increased significantly or even will decrease, which is also the reason for the sharp withdrawal of cyclical stocks in the near future.
Looking forward to the future, Guo Kun pointed out that he is mainly optimistic about two directions. First, the new energy sector, especially new energy vehicles, although the current price is high, the matching degree between valuation and growth is still in a reasonable range, and the trend and growth are more determined than other sectors, which has investment value. Second, we are optimistic about mass consumer goods and tend to the layout on the left. Although the price has picked up at present, the fundamentals are still upward. The income of mass consumer goods enterprises in the second and third quarters still increased by about 20%, reflecting strong toughness. Since the fourth quarter, the profit base has decreased compared with last year, and the prices of many commodities have been adjusted and raised, and the profit situation of corresponding enterprises will be improved. If the stock price goes down, there may be appropriate allocation opportunities.
(China Securities Journal)
