On December 15, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said at a press conference held by the state information office that the national economy continued to recover in November and the real economy increased steadily. Throughout the year, China's economy is expected to recover steadily, and the main indicators remain within a reasonable range. From the perspective of economic development next year, there is still good support for overcoming difficulties and challenges and maintaining stable economic operation.
the real economy is steadily rising
Fu Linghui said that in November, the national economy continued to recover and the real economy rose steadily.
From the cumulative point of view, the main indicators are in a reasonable range. From January to November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 10.1%, the production index of service industry increased by 14%, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 13.7%, and the total import and export of goods increased by 22%, all maintaining rapid growth.
From the macro indicators, from January to November, the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.1%, lower than the expected target of about 5.5% for the whole year; Consumer prices rose by 0.9% year-on-year, lower than the annual expected target of about 3%; The balance of foreign exchange reserves remained above US $3.2 trillion for seven consecutive months, and the international balance of payments remained basically balanced.
"These situations show that China's economy has maintained a stable recovery, the real economy continues to strengthen, and positive changes are gradually increasing. " Fu Linghui said, but we should also see that the international environment is becoming more complex and severe, the impact of China's epidemic situation is still continuing, and there are still many constraints on supply and demand.
there are many favorable factors for expanding domestic demand
Fu Linghui said that the contribution of consumption to economic growth has increased steadily this year. At the same time, investment growth is also improving. The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth remained at a high level. In the first three quarters, domestic demand contributed more than 80% to economic growth.
Looking forward to the next stage, Fu Linghui said that China's demand in still has great potential. in terms of consumption, China has a population of 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income groups. At present, the per capita GDP has reached US $10000. It is in a period of rapid development with expanded consumption scale and upgraded structure, and the consumption development potential is huge. In terms of investment, China is still the largest developing country in the world. There is still a large gap between the per capita capital stock and developed countries. The unbalanced development of urban and rural areas also contains huge investment space. In addition, industrial upgrading and development, the wide penetration of new generation information technology, and the integration of industrialization and informatization also need to increase investment.
"There are still many favorable factors for expanding domestic demand, which will strongly support China's economic development." Fu Linghui said, for example, the current employment situation is generally stable and the growth of residents' income is well guaranteed. At the same time, with the deepening of supply side structural reform, the adaptability of supply to demand adjustment has been continuously improved, which is also conducive to expanding consumption.
there is still good support for the stable operation of the economy next year
Fu Linghui believes that China's long-term fundamentals have not changed. From the perspective of economic development next year, there is still good support for overcoming difficulties and challenges and maintaining stable economic operation.
Specifically, first, the pull of domestic demand is expected to increase. the steady growth of residents' income and the overall stable employment situation are conducive to improving residents' consumption ability and willingness. As long as we do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, there is still great potential for consumption development next year. Major projects in the 14th five year plan have been started one after another, and the construction of "two new and one heavy" infrastructure has been steadily promoted, which is conducive to enhancing the driving role of effective investment.
second, the innovation driven trend is improving. scientific and technological innovation accelerated development, 5g industry accelerated layout, and strategic emerging industries such as digital economy, life and health and new materials grew rapidly.
Third, coordinated urban and rural regional development. new urbanization and Rural Revitalization strategies have been steadily promoted, and the gap between urban and rural areas has continued to narrow.
Fourth, the dividends of reform and opening up continued to be released. the results of the reform of "release, management and service" and the optimization of the market environment have been continuously demonstrated, the market-oriented reform of factors has been steadily promoted, the high-level opening to the outside world has been accelerated, the vitality of market players has been effectively stimulated, and the driving force for development vitality has been enhanced.
Fifth, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. China's one belt, one road, and other two industries, have been developing rapidly.
prices will remain stable
Fu Linghui believes that from the perspective of future trend, there are many favorable factors for the moderate rise of CPI. First, from the perspective of food, the annual grain harvest has laid a good foundation for the stability of food prices. at present, pig production, supply and capacity recovery have reached a normal level. Winter is generally a season of vigorous pork consumption. Driven by new year's day and Spring Festival holidays, pork prices may improve. Generally speaking, the supply of live pigs is gradually restored on the whole, and it is unlikely to rise sharply in the next stage.
second, from the perspective of non food, although there may be some uncertainty in the price of vehicle fuel, especially gasoline and diesel, affected by international factors, the supply of other industrial consumer goods and services is sufficient on the whole, and the price increase will remain stable.
"On the whole, there is still a good foundation for prices to remain stable." Fu Linghui said.
proportion of children aged 0-14
increased by 1.35 percentage points over 2010
Fu Linghui said that in recent years, there have been some new changes in China's population situation.
From the current data, China's labor resources are still relatively rich; The overall quality of the labor force is improving, and the proportion of children's population is also increasing. According to the data of the seventh national census, the proportion of children aged 0-14 increased by 1.35 percentage points over 2010. At present, the three child fertility policy and supporting measures are also conducive to the improvement of the population age structure and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.
"Judging from these situations, China's labor force has great favorable conditions both in terms of total quantity and labor quality. " Fu Linghui said that in the future, China will promote economic growth through technological progress. With the improvement of population quality, especially the increase of high-quality labor supply, China's economic development will be well guaranteed in the future.
there are many favorable conditions for the stable development of the real estate industry
With regard to the real estate market, Fu Linghui said that since this year, all localities have adhered to both purchase and rent and implemented policies according to the city to promote the healthy development of the real estate market. The results have gradually appeared, and the momentum of rapid rise in real estate prices in some cities has been restrained.
Fu Linghui said, there are still many favorable conditions for the stable development of the real estate industry. for example, after market adjustment, market participants are more rational, and the long-term mechanism of real estate is gradually improving. In the next stage, we should adhere to the positioning of "housing, housing and non speculation", adhere to the simultaneous development of purchase and rent, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, implement policies according to the city, promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry, and better meet the living needs of the people.
(China Securities Journal)
