This week’s focus: combing the key points of Lilly and bms2021 annual reports
Multinational pharmaceutical companies Lilly and BMS successively released the performance summary report of fiscal year 2021. In this week’s weekly report, we combed in detail the performance and R & D Progress of the two companies in 2021, and reviewed the growth path of the pharmaceutical giant in a year when the global epidemic spread and the medical and health pattern continued to change.
Lilly: the performance in China increased by nearly half, and dulaglutide exceeded US $6 billion. In 2021, the total revenue was USD 28.318 billion (+ 15%), and the adjusted net profit was USD 7.437 billion (+ 20%), corresponding to eps8.3% 16 dollars; In 2021q4, the revenue is USD 8 billion (+ 8%), and the adjusted net profit is USD 2.268 billion (+ 8%), corresponding to eps2.4 $49. China’s revenue was US $1.661 billion, an increase of 49% compared with us $1.117 billion in 2020, becoming Lilly’s fastest-growing market in the world. Trump brand GLP-1 receptor agonist trulicity continued to maintain a stable and rapid growth of more than 20% in 2021, with annual sales reaching US $6.472 billion, which is the core growth force of performance.
BMS: drug o turned against the wind and returned to growth, and new products are ready to go. In 2021fy, the company achieved revenue of 46.385 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year; The adjusted net profit was USD 16.854 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, corresponding to EPS of USD 7.51. In 2021q4, the single quarter revenue was US $11.985 billion, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year; The adjusted net profit was $4.071 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, corresponding to EPS of $1.83. Super heavy bomb product Revlimid (lenalidomide, TNF)- α Inhibitor) and eliquis (apixaban, coagulation factor X) have annual sales of more than 10 billion US dollars, and opdivo (navulizumab, PD-1 inhibitor) has revived, which is one of the main growth drivers of BMS performance.
Market review of innovative medicine stocks in the pharmaceutical sector:
Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) , Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) -u, Shan Dong Kexing Bioproducts Co.Ltd(688136) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) . The last five are Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd(688177) -u, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , Shanghai Fudan-Zhangjiang Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688505) .
This week, Rongchang bio-b, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Baiji Shenzhou, kingship biotechnology and kangfang bio-b ranked among the top 5 in the rise and fall of pharmaceutical innovative drugs in Hong Kong stocks. The last five are tengshengbo medicine-b, jiakesi-b, Yunding xinyao-b, kangnoah-b and platinum medicine-b.
Medium and long term perspective of innovative pharmaceutical industry:
In recent years, with the influx of capital stimulated by policies, China has ushered in a gale of innovation. China’s innovation market has strong policy attributes. On October 8, 2017, the two offices jointly issued the opinions on deepening the reform of the review and approval system and encouraging the innovation of drugs and medical devices, which opened the first wave of innovation. With the revision of the administrative measures for drug registration, drug negotiation and the introduction of the dynamic adjustment mechanism of medical insurance, the top-level design of the policy has completely solved the problem of insufficient innovation power caused by Limited R & D resources, non-standard Review & slow progress, low bidding efficiency, high difficulty in admission and difficult connection of medical insurance in history. Under the stimulation of Programmatic Policies, combined with the promotion of the science and innovation board and the registration system in recent years, the capital of innovative medicine racetrack swarmed, and the financing of innovative medicine enterprises accelerated, which also led China’s innovative medicine investment into the era of gale mouth. Driven by a good policy environment and capital, China’s innovation rise has accelerated. Domestic innovative drugs have entered the harvest period one after another, and more heavy innovative products will be approved and listed in China in the next few years.
What cannot be ignored is that the time window for “general innovation” given by the policy is becoming shorter and shorter, the cost control of medical insurance is becoming stricter, and the track is becoming more and more crowded. We have slowly entered the moment of “selected high-quality innovation”. At present, the homogenization of innovative drug research and development in China is more serious, and the homogenization of targeted drugs is the most serious. The era that innovative drugs are listed as blockbusters is slowly passing, and the time window period of “general innovation” given by the policy is becoming shorter and shorter. We believe that China’s innovative drug market has slowly entered the moment of “selected high-quality innovation” from “general innovation”. In the future, the homogenization competition of McAb popular targets will continue to be intense, and the homogenized products will gradually lose their competitiveness. New technologies, scarce technology platforms, differentiated treatment fields and innovative drug delivery methods may bring a better competitive pattern to enterprises, and companies with technology precipitation are expected to stand out.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry was lower than expected.
