Key investment points
According to the roadmap for the development of China's photovoltaic industry (2021 version) released by the photovoltaic industry association, the average conversion efficiency of TOPCON single crystal cells in 2021 will reach 24%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared with 2020, close to the average conversion efficiency of hjt of 24.2%, Compared with perc P single crystal battery, the conversion efficiency (23.1%) has obvious advantages. In 2021, TOPCON battery chip equipment investment and silver slurry consumption decreased to varying degrees. High temperature silver slurry is used in the silver slurry link, and the unit consumption of positive silver is close to that of perc P single crystal battery. In contrast, hjt adopts low temperature silver slurry, and the unit consumption is high. The equipment investment of 2021 TOPCON is 220000 yuan / MW, a year-on-year decrease of about 18.5%, which is basically close to the investment of perc p-type single crystal (190000 yuan / MW) and significantly lower than that of hjt (400000 yuan / MW). At present, perc p-type single crystal battery is close to the ceiling of its efficiency, and n-type battery will become the direction of the next generation of battery. Thanks to its cost performance, TOPCON is expected to expand rapidly. It is expected that the production capacity of TOPCON battery will reach 40-50gw by the end of 2022.
The lower kwh cost of TOPCON n-type components brings a premium.
Jingke tiger Neo n-type component can increase power by 15-20w compared with p-type. In the case of Inner Mongolia ground power station project published by Jingke, after using TOPCON n-type component, the cost of BOS is reduced by nearly 1.18% and the power generation is increased by 2%. Tracking the support project in the overseas Arab and Spanish regions, the kWh cost decreased by 6.2% and 4.78% respectively compared with the scheme of using 60 p-type components of 210 size. Based on the principle of maximizing the owner's rate of return, there is a premium for n-type TOPCON components. At present, compared with ordinary p-type components, the price is about 0.1-0.15 yuan / W and the cost is about 0.05 yuan / W.
TOPCON reached the critical point of large-scale mass production, and the leaders arranged one after another. TOPCON reached the critical point of large-scale mass production, and the leaders arranged one after another. At the photovoltaic SNEC exhibition in 2021, several module manufacturers launched module products based on TOPCON. In June 2021, the efficiency of Longji n-type TOPCON battery reached 25.21%, which was the highest conversion efficiency in the world certified by the authority at that time. Later, Jingke raised this record to 25.4%. CNNC Huineng involved n-type components in the component bidding in February this year, with an estimated capacity of about 7001000mw. Sany group released the equipment bidding announcement of TOPCON battery project. Jingke energy invested in the construction of 16GW n-type TOPCON battery phase I project in Hefei. The 8GW battery project was fully offline in January this year. Jietai technology, with Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) shareholding of 51%, plans to invest in the construction of 16GW high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery project in Chuzhou, Anhui Province, The project is divided into two phases: the first phase of the project with an annual output of 8GW photovoltaic cells is planned to start construction at the beginning of 2022 and reach production within the year. The n-type TOPCON technical route is adopted. The Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) existing battery capacity is 2.1gw. It is planned to add 1.5gw in Taizhou, Jiangsu Province and 16gwtopcon battery capacity in Shanxi Province. At present, the first phase of 8GW project is under construction.
We believe that n-type battery is the future direction. Leading enterprises with existing battery capacity usually choose TOPCON route to be compatible with existing capacity, while new entrants in the industry usually choose hjt route to lay out the future. The cost performance of n-type TOPCON components began to show and reached the critical point of mass production. Pay attention to the enterprises with leading layout of n-type TOPCON. It is suggested to pay attention to Jingke energy, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) . Continue to maintain the "overweight" rating for the power equipment industry.
Risk tips
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise in the price of raw materials, lower than expected downstream demand, risk of intensified industry competition, systemic risk of the market, performance failure of recommended companies, etc.
