Main points:
Tesla 4680 battery production may enter the mass production stage, and the industrial chain may usher in a new trend
Tesla may produce the first million 4680 batteries, and the yield may be significantly increased to 92%, which indicates that 4680 batteries are expected to gradually enter the industrialization stage and usher in mass production. With the mainstream battery manufacturers following up the 4680 battery technology, the penetration of high nickel positive electrode and silicon carbon negative electrode will accelerate, and the 4680 battery technology system will also drive the increase in the consumption of carbon nanotubes, new lithium salt lifsi, coated PVDF and other auxiliary materials. It is suggested to pay attention to the head battery plants that actively layout the 4680 battery and the relevant midstream material plants that benefit from its outbreak.
The contradiction between supply and demand supports the high price of lithium, drives the performance outbreak of upstream lithium enterprises, and puts pressure on midstream transmission and battery factories and car factories
Whether it is overseas mines, salt lakes or the development of lithium resources in China, the release of lithium supply may be lower than expected, which corresponds to the optimization of lithium demand structure, the rigidity of demand growth driven by new energy, and the difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match the speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth. At present, on the one hand, the supply of lithium salt may become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and lower reaches. In order to ensure the safety of the supply chain, all links will enlarge the demand again; On the other hand, the contradiction between lithium supply and demand continues to intensify, and the prices of spot futures and long single and loose orders continue to rise. However, under the rigid market competition of electric vehicle demand, the positive pole conduction and the pressure on battery factories and vehicle factories, while ensuring the supply and resource inclination, new energy vehicles and battery factories and vehicle factories with cost advantages will occupy the market share and advantage, and the market differentiation will not inhibit the demand. As a result, the profits of the industrial chain will move up, the performance release in the first quarter and the sustainability of the high lithium price supported by supply and demand will gradually reverse the market cognition.
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) 22q1 performance forecast is much higher than expected, and live shows that lithium enterprises still have profit flexibility
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) forecast 22q1 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 900-1.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1053.7% – 1438.2%, mainly due to 1) the sharp rise in the price of lithium salt, while the rise in the price of lithium concentrate lags behind that of lithium salt; 2) The company deeply binds the upstream lithium resource supply. Livent21q4 performance exchange said that its production capacity will not increase significantly in 22 years, and the sales guidance is the same as that in 21 years, showing the difficulty and long cycle of lithium project production, product optimization and customer certification; At the same time, it is pointed out that the price of the association has risen in an all-round way, and the order signing interval will be transferred to a more flexible quarterly and monthly way, and the price will follow the market, showing an optimistic expectation for the price of lithium. Therefore, there is still room for flexibility in the upstream profit.
Investment suggestions: three main lines: first, capacity release, cost pressure relief and gross profit recovery. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc; 2. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc; Three mid stream material link companies that have clear patterns, clear advantages, and a clear, dominant, and still tight supply and demand: the mid stream material link companies that have a clear pattern, clear advantage, and obvious middle stream material link companies that have a clear pattern, clear advantage, and clear middle stream material link companies: the ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates.
