Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : pay attention to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry this round of market is far from over
Pay attention to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry, and this round of market is far from over. On the one hand, there is a big gap between China’s national defense strength and economic strength at the present stage. China needs a large number of new weapons and equipment to make up for its military shortcomings, and the national defense investment is expected to continue to grow. On the other hand, advanced military technology has spillover characteristics. The military technology incubated by military enterprises has great civil value and can be extended to many industries such as semiconductors, civil aviation, commercial aerospace, new energy, consumer electronics, smart cars and smart homes. There is a huge market space for both military and civil uses. Finally, in recent years, conflicts continue in some parts of the world, countries with weak military industry have strong demand for military trade products, China has a complete military scientific research and production system, excellent performance and competitiveness of military trade products, and its share in the international military trade market is expected to continue to increase. The military industry has a broad market space, and the super military industry is at the right time. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : there are many investment opportunities in aviation, missile, informatization and other fields with high medium and long-term perspective investment value
The growth rate of the military industry is second to none, with outstanding growth compared with other industries. In particular, 2021-2023 is the key to speed up the industry. The compound growth rate is expected to exceed 30%, and the growth rate of subdivided fields is higher. On the valuation side, the CSI military industry index is at the 54.55% quantile in the past five years. On the whole, the military industry has many investment opportunities in aviation, missiles, informatization and other fields, and still has high medium and long-term investment value.
1) Aviation main battle equipment: the main engine factory mainly recommends Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) . Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Hefei Jianghang Aircraft Equipment Co.Ltd(688586) , Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) etc. are recommended for the supporting facilities in the middle and upper reaches.
2) Missile weapons and equipment: those with high business proportion and flexible performance in the aerospace field are preferred, with emphasis on Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) , and attention to Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) .
3) Military electronics & Informatization: key recommendations include Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) . Information construction is also the top priority of equipment upgrading in the 14th five year plan, focusing on Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) and so on. []
Dongguan Securities: expected capital return under accelerated domestic substitution optimistic about the follow-up development of aviation industry chain
Recently, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated, and the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving our military strength can we better deal with the increasingly complex world situation. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, we also expect the return of funds under the acceleration of domestic substitution, and we are optimistic about the follow-up development of the aviation industry chain; On the other hand, we are optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under the Internet of things and special chips. The target suggestions concern: Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aerospace Ch Uav Co.Ltd(002389) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , etc. []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : the national defense industry can still maintain a high outlook sustained and rapid development
Under the traction of national defense construction, localization substitution and civil demand, the national defense and military industry can still maintain a high outlook, sustained and rapid development, and maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry. It is suggested that the investment in the national defense industry in 2022 should be carried out along the three main lines of aviation, ships and military electronics. Aviation mainline, recommended Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) ; Ship mainline, recommended China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) , China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) lease, recommended China Shipbuilding Industry Company Limited(601989) , Cssc Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group) Company Limited(600685) ; Main line of military electronics, recommend Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) , and pay attention to Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) ; Other tracks recommend Guangdong Hongda Blasting Co.Ltd(002683) for missile assembly and Suzhou Sushi Testing Group Co.Ltd(300416) for military testing. []
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) : among the military sub industries, the improvement of the fundamentals of the aviation equipment sub industry is the most determined
The 14th five year plan accelerated the upswing of the military industry, and military enterprises generally began to show an upward turning trend in the first half of 2021, with outstanding performance. Among the military sub industries, the improvement of the fundamentals of the aviation equipment sub industry is the most certain. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, many key Chinese military aircraft, such as the j-20 and its spare parts, were in the early stages of R & D, domestic substitution and small-scale production. Since 2021, these aviation equipment began to shift to the ramp up period of production capacity and large-scale domestic substitution.
In the new stage, the whole machine, forgings, subsystems and materials are expected to achieve rapid improvement in performance. In addition, the military civilian integration has been deepened, and private equipment manufacturers have obtained greater development opportunities. The participation of private manufacturers improves industry efficiency and drives the continuous improvement of profitability. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading industry segments: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) . At the same time, private suppliers that pay attention to military civilian integration and have obvious competitive advantages: Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) and Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) . []
Anxin Securities: focus on aviation, aerospace, informatization and new materials
Focus on aviation, aerospace, informatization and new materials: 1) aviation equipment: both the surrounding situation and the construction of Navy and air force have put forward new requirements for military aircraft. At present, there is great room for improvement in the number and structure of Chinese military aircraft. It is expected that with the national defense budget inclined to weapons and equipment, especially the air force and Navy, it is expected to accelerate the replacement and assembly of military aircraft. We believe that aviation equipment will show a high boom during the 14th Five Year Plan period, driving the performance improvement of the industrial chain. In addition, the reform of military pricing mechanism and the increase of equity incentive scheme will also promote the improvement of industry profit level. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) ], [ Hefei Jianghang Aircraft Equipment Co.Ltd(688586) ], [ Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ], [ Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) ], [ Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) ], [ Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) ], [ Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ], [ Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) ], [ Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ], [ Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co.Ltd(603809) ] and [ Jiangsu Maixinlin Aviation Science And Technology Corp(688685) ].
2) Aerospace equipment: the main driving factors of the missile industry mainly come from: the first is the iterative period, the second is the increase in the demand for strategic reserves, and the third is driven by practical training. The missile sector may be the most flexible segment during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which will bring rapid performance thickening of relevant listed companies, pay attention to the overall opportunities of the missile sector, and give priority to the targets with high performance flexibility and high proportion of missile business. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) ] and [ Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) ].
3) Informatization sector: due to factors such as localization process, military modernization and accelerated update of new models, it has continued to exceed the growth of the industry since 2018, focusing on military semiconductors, upstream electronic components, radar and electronic countermeasures, communication, navigation and remote sensing, etc. the performance of some companies has taken the lead in entering the high-speed growth stage and is expected to continue in the next 21 years. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) ], [ Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) ], [ China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) ], [ Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) ], [ Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) ], [ Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) ] and [ Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) ].
4) New materials: it is suggested to focus on the direction of superalloys, titanium alloys and carbon fiber composites. The military new material technology has basically achieved independent control and represents the leading level in China. Moreover, the dual / multi flow system of model certification makes the suppliers limited and the competition at the supply end is good, On the demand side, due to the large volume of main battle models and supporting engines, the increasing proportion of new material applications, the increasing outsourcing proportion of main engine manufacturers, domestic substitution and other factors, it is expected that the future growth of the industry is highly deterministic, and the scale effect will continue to appear after the demand increases, driving the continuous decline of unit cost. Therefore, the gross profit margin of the industry may still have room to improve and gradually realize it to profit, It has the possibility of urgently developing the civil market and has good long-term growth. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) ], [ Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) ], [ Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) ], [ Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ], [ Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) ]. []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : currently the first complete machine ! be optimistic about high-quality tracks such as missiles, air launch, military aircraft and informatization
The medium-term logic of national defense equipment is solid: the central government emphasizes “comprehensive focus on war preparation”; It clearly puts forward “to ensure that the Centennial goal of building the army will be achieved by 2027” and “to basically realize the modernization of national defense and the army by 2035”, which requires efforts to build a strong national defense commensurate with the second largest economy.
Sustained high growth is guaranteed: the gap in quantity and quality between China and the United States in key areas such as military aircraft and missiles is still large, and the possibility of making up for it in the short term is low. It is expected that the sustained high growth of national defense equipment in the 14th five year plan will be guaranteed.
In terms of investment suggestions, the profits of materials, parts, systems and the whole machine are transmitted in turn. At present, the whole machine is the first, and it is optimistic about high-quality tracks such as missiles, aviation, military aircraft and informatization. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the military industry is a standard Changpo thick snow track with long-term sustainable growth maintained or improved by the valuation center
The new model is gradually implemented, and the short / medium / long-term performance of the valuation center continues to exceed expectations, which may be established in combination with two assessment points, two important intermediate nodes and two expected nodes. We believe that the military industry has long-term sustainable growth maintained or improved by the valuation center and is a standard long slope thick snow track. Therefore, we believe that we also take into account the growth sustainability The comparable direction of national long-term strategic matching degree and expected stable and positive expansion is the new energy track of the same advanced manufacturing industry, such as lithium battery, photovoltaic and so on. We find that the PEG is generally around 1.5x, while the military industry is generally around 1xPEG. At present, there is no obvious bubble in the valuation of military industry.
We believe that the current industrial capacity construction of the national defense industry is in a rapid climbing period, and the scale effect and equity incentive will continue to promote the improvement of industrial operation and release profit elasticity. Considering that in the military industry, products have the characteristics of small batch, multiple varieties and long cycle, and the release of new capacity is conducive to opening up the capacity bottleneck in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, matching the large-scale production of batch production models and the batch production nodes of new models, the whole industry will usher in the improvement of capacity utilization brought by the optimization of product structure (small batch and multiple varieties affect capacity allocation), At the same time, superimposed with the decline of marginal cost under the scale effect after the climbing of new products (including the reduction of fixed cost allocation and the decline of variable cost caused by manufacturing upgrading), the profitability of the industry will enter the track of continuous improvement on the basis of large volume. []
