Today (December 1), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a pattern of shock and differentiation as a whole. The three major indexes opened slightly lower in the morning, and then differentiated significantly. Driven by securities companies, the Shanghai index was relatively strong, maintaining a shock rebound pattern throughout the day, especially the tail raising market in the late trading; The Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index showed weak performance, basically weak throughout the day, and finally closed in the green market.
In this regard, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that near the end of the year, the mainstream institutional fund selection gradually reduces the fluctuation, and the coping strategy is mainly stable. It is suggested that investors should carefully pursue the high, control their positions, choose the best from the best, avoid industries and individual stocks that have increased too much in the short term driven by events, avoid the investment direction with uncertain policy attitude, and choose the plate with high uncertainty of long-term prosperity for investment.
At the same time, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that at the operational level, it is recommended to tentatively add positions to the main tracks such as new energy and power, and be more active in the growth sectors such as military industry, computer and 5g. At present, the undervalued sector is seriously divided. It is suggested to pay attention to food stocks with better adjustment rhythm and e-cigarettes, immune medicine and other market segments boosted by long-term demand.
plate:
I. papermaking and printing
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) according to the analysis, from a fundamental point of view, cultural paper has entered the bidding and production stage of teaching auxiliary teaching materials in the spring of 2022, and the demand margin has improved. At the same time, due to the initial bad basically exhausted, with the reduction of imported paper, the demand margin has improved and the cost has been gradually alleviated.
CITIC futures said that there is no deterministic demand driven growth of cultural paper in 2022, but due to the great impact in 2021, the most common next year may be the normal growth of demand. At the same time, considering the current high inventory of cultural paper, it is expected that the second half of the year will be better than the first half of the year.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the downstream demand of wood pulp was low, and the packaging paper grew steadily under the waste prohibition order. The demand for wood pulp has not improved, the demand for cultural paper has declined significantly year-on-year, and the paper price has remained depressed; Under the waste prohibition order, the demand for packaging paper has increased steadily since April 2021, and the proportion of imports has decreased, supporting the demand for domestic paper. However, the industrial chain is not willing to store goods, so it is difficult to have a large market. In 2022, it is expected to usher in a new papermaking market after inventory digestion and demand repair.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that at present, the prices of most kinds of paper are low, among which the prices of cultural paper and white cardboard are at the bottom. We believe that there may be a tight balance between supply and demand in the paper industry. The "double control" policy helps to limit production and ensure prices, enhance the willingness of downstream replenishment, and improve the supply and demand of the industry. (1) Short term: pay attention to the follow-up demand (core factors), the strength and sustainability of power restriction policy, and the progress of new capacity launch; (2) In the medium and long term, the "double control" policy helps to speed up the clearing of production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, make it easier for large factories to pass the approval of new projects, and further improve the industry concentration.
II. Real estate development
Previously, Wanlian Securities pointed out that the fundamentals of the real estate industry are still in the downward stage, and the current policy has begun to correct the deviation, which is expected to gradually return to the normal level. The valuation of each sector of A-share real estate is low, among which the profit stability of the property management sector is high. The current time point is mainly affected by the credit risk events of the development sector. With the gradual release of the risk of the development sector, the valuation repair can be expected. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities of high-quality real estate enterprises with good financial status and credit.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the current market is in the combination of "fundamental bottom area" + "policy bottom", the policy has released the signal of maintaining stability, and the credit side can be relaxed. According to past experience, the impact of the policy on the valuation elasticity of the sector is greater than the performance, and the valuation of the sector generally starts to rise in the area where the fundamentals are at the bottom. In the process of credit risk exposure, the industry accelerates the process of "survival of the fittest" and gradually clears up. After the risk events are implemented, the industry's credit pattern will be reconstructed and the concentration will be further improved, which will benefit the head real estate enterprises with stable operation, low financing cost and healthy leverage structure.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) also mentioned that the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the pain period of the industry will continue. Three investment main lines in the post crisis era deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the pain period. Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Resources Land and Longhu group are recommended.
Main line 2: long term business is paid more attention, and poly property, country garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, rongchuang service, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) are recommended.
Main line 3: value revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises. With the rapid turnover of the industry from alienation and the decline in growth rate, the structural differentiation intensifies. High-quality enterprises with strong product strength and brand reputation are expected to usher in value revaluation. The institution further analyzed that although the policy tone has softened, the transmission takes time. At the current time, large and medium-sized real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance will fully benefit from the relatively loose cash on hand, which can not only seize the opportunity of the land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing. Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) are recommended in December.
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