Recently, the external market fluctuated greatly. Today (December 2), the three major A-share stock indexes opened slightly lower, the long and short game fell back, and the accumulated power rose in the afternoon, but the upper offensive degree was not strong. The stock index fell again, and the trend in the late trading was basically flat. Finally, the three major markets have closed on the cross K line.
In this regard, the Bank of China strategy points out that entering the market in December and entering the configuration market next year, the implementation of policy setting will break the situation that there is no main line in the current market. At present, under the stable credit expectation, there may be a phased market in the blue chip sector. In terms of industry allocation, the trend of new energy remained unchanged, the undervalued blue chip rebounded periodically, and the growth gradually entered the left allocation range.
At the same time, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that considering the background of downward fundamentals, relatively abundant macro capital and neutral and cautious mood, the systematic risks and overall opportunities of the A-share market are small, and the upward space of index trend is limited, but the market does not lack structural market, so we can focus on the investment opportunities brought by industry rotation and hot topics. Focus on the setting tone of the central economic work conference in December, as well as the specific direction and strength of support for the industry.
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1、 rare earth permanent magnet
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that with the continuous outbreak of demand for new energy vehicles, the downstream demand for wind power and energy-saving variable frequency air conditioning under carbon neutralization has made steady progress, and the downstream demand for rare earth is expected to continue to improve; It is expected that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China’s rare earth supply will still be limited by the total mining index, the supply side high-pressure policies such as anti Mafia and environmental protection will continue, the overseas supply increment will be relatively limited in the next five years, and the global rare earth supply and demand may be in a tight balance for a long time. We expect that rare earth prices may make steady progress in 2022, and the profits of companies related to the rare earth industry chain are expected to grow sustainably in the long term. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the strategic allocation value of the whole rare earth industry chain.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that from the current point of view, fundamental changes have taken place in the industry fundamentals. The supply is orderly, the black rare earth is cleared, and the rare earth mining and smelting are strictly controlled in accordance with the quota. The demand was strong, the development of new energy industry accelerated, the demand for magnetic materials increased, and the consumption of rare earth broke out in an all-round way. Under the assumption of steady supply growth, we expect the global supply and demand gap of praseodymium and neodymium oxide to continue to expand. Under the condition of low inventory, the price of rare earth is expected to remain high or even break through further upward.
The agency further analyzed and paid attention to the leading enterprises in the rare earth permanent magnet industry. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and other industries, the demand for magnetic materials broke out in an all-round way, and the rare earth industry ushered in fundamental changes. We expect that there will be a long-term gap between supply and demand of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in the next five years. Driven by fundamentals, the value of rare earth will be revalued. At the current time point, we recommend paying attention to two main investment lines of rare earth permanent magnet industry. First, praseodymium and neodymium oxide are in short supply, and they are optimistic about rare earth smelting enterprises with resource advantages. Second, the demand for high-end Nd-Fe-B is growing rapidly, and it is optimistic about the leading magnetic material enterprises with rapid expansion. It is recommended to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , etc.
II. Automobile
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said it was optimistic that the overall demand for cars would continue to recover next year. On the one hand, with the gradual easing of the epidemic in Malaysia and Bosch and other manufacturers increasing investment in chip production capacity, the impact of chip shortage is continuously improving. On the other hand, the rise of raw material prices and freight is expected to usher in marginal improvement in Q4. The limited capacity of Q3 of major main engine plants is expected to be gradually released. Driven by the superposition of inventory replenishment, the automobile sector will usher in strategic allocation opportunities.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that recently, the market has questioned whether the terminal demand in November is sustainable. We are relatively optimistic about the automotive industry. The reasons are as follows: first, the base number in the fourth quarter of 2020 is high, mainly due to the continuous decline from 2018 to 2019. In 2020, the demand is delayed to 2020h2 due to the epidemic, resulting in a high base, and the terminal discount is narrowed due to the lack of core in 2021, Retail data is relatively under pressure. For the total volume, we don’t think there will be much room for growth in the future, but it will not decrease. According to neutral judgment, the annual sales volume of passenger cars will remain between 22-25 million.
Second, the industry is in the stage of change. Electrification and intellectualization will give birth to huge investment opportunities. The investment in the sector should be light on the total amount and heavy on the structure, and pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the new trend of industrial development under the background of electric intellectualization. In the fourth quarter strategy, we focus on the power battery, head vehicle and parts. At the current time point, we continue to be optimistic about the five golden tracks of the new energy vehicle industry chain and parts.
Open source Securities believes that scarcity is the core element to grasp this upward cycle. The triple cycle resonates, and the high outlook of the industry is expected to continue. The three trends with strong certainty have laid the tone of this round of upward cycle of the automotive industry. We believe that companies with scarcity competitiveness are expected to fully benefit from this round of upward cycle. In terms of vehicle manufacturers, the beneficiary targets include: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; In terms of parts and components, the beneficiary objects include: Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Iat Automobile Technology Co.Ltd(300825) .
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