Today (December 3), the three major A-share indexes opened slightly higher and quickly rose at the beginning of the session. Then the gem index gradually fell, showing a pulse downward, while the Shanghai index stabilized and rose. On the whole, the stock index differentiation was obvious. Judging from the disk, light index index stocks continue to continue, port shipping led, electricity, coal and other standards come back, Baijiu, military and other sectors continue to rise, partial money making effect is outstanding.
Guosheng Securities said that the current market is dominated by the rotation and replenishment of low-level plates. The market gives positive feedback to industries with good news, small and medium-sized themes and clear policy coverage. Before the general profit-making effect, the market incremental funds are still dominated by institutions, and the direction of institutional layout may be dominated by the first quarter of next year.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] port shipping
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that Omicron has brought new opportunities led by the maritime sector. Recently, under the influence of Omicron, shipping and other sectors are catalyzed by the expected rise in freight rates caused by the exposure of variant viruses. The market's response to the epidemic is finally reflected in shipping, and the subsequent performance of relevant sectors is expected.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the industry characteristic brought by the short-term supply rigidity of the shipping market is that with the increase of ship utilization, the freight rate volatility will increase in the second half of the business cycle (oil transportation in 2019 and centralized transportation since 2020 have witnessed this characteristic). We believe that in the next five years, the shipping market will show the characteristics of relatively high and wide fluctuation under the condition of relatively limited supply.
The agency further mentioned that no matter how long the duration of high freight rates is, the logistics transformation of airlines deserves more attention. A successful airline company can continuously increase its market share, which will effectively hedge the impact of freight rate return and ensure the continuous growth of airline company profits. 2020-2022 is the transformation and penetration period of "building high walls and accumulating grain widely" of aviation logistics companies. High freight rates are the east wind of the transformation of aviation logistics companies, creating blood for subsequent expansion and diversification.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that if the epidemic subsides, the traffic volume of Strait ferry and Three Gorges cruise ship is expected to increase significantly and drive profit growth. With the construction of Hainan free trade port, the demand for ferry transportation in the Strait has increased rapidly, and the demand for cruise transportation in the Three Gorges has increased with the tourism demand of two dams and one gorge. After the epidemic subsides, it will be reflected in the high growth of traffic volume. The cross-strait ferry transport capacity is low, and the capacity utilization is expected to improve, driving the profit growth. Bohai Ferry Group Co.Ltd(603167) the growth rate of transportation demand is low, the growth rate of transportation capacity is fast, and supply pressure is faced in the short term. []
[Topic 2] military industry
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that attaching importance to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry, this round of market is far from over. On the one hand, there is a big gap between China's national defense strength and economic strength at the present stage. China needs a large number of new weapons and equipment to make up for its military shortcomings, and the national defense investment is expected to continue to grow. On the other hand, advanced military technology has spillover characteristics. The military technology incubated by military enterprises has great civil value and can be extended to many industries such as semiconductors, civil aviation, commercial aerospace, new energy, consumer electronics, smart cars and smart homes. There is a huge market space for both military and civil uses. Finally, in recent years, conflicts continue in some parts of the world, countries with weak military industry have strong demand for military trade products, China has a complete military scientific research and production system, excellent performance and competitiveness of military trade products, and its share in the international military trade market is expected to continue to increase. The military industry has a broad market space, and the super military industry is at the right time.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the current industrial capacity construction of the national defense industry is in a rapid climbing period, and the scale effect and equity incentive will continue to promote the improvement of industrial operation and release profit elasticity. Considering that in the military industry, products have the characteristics of small batch, multiple varieties and long cycle, and the release of new capacity is conducive to opening up the capacity bottleneck in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, matching the large-scale production of batch production models and the batch production nodes of new models, the whole industry will usher in the improvement of capacity utilization brought by the optimization of product structure (small batch and multiple varieties affect capacity allocation), At the same time, superimposed with the decline of marginal cost under the scale effect after the climbing of new products (including the reduction of fixed cost allocation and the decline of variable cost caused by manufacturing upgrading), the profitability of the industry will enter the track of continuous improvement on the basis of large volume.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that the growth rate of the military industry is second to none, with outstanding growth compared with other industries. In particular, 2021-2023 is the key to speed up the industry. The compound growth rate is expected to exceed 30%, and the growth rate of subdivided fields is higher. On the valuation side, the CSI military industry index is at the 54.55% quantile in the past five years. On the whole, the military industry has many investment opportunities in aviation, missiles, informatization and other fields, and still has high medium and long-term investment value. []
[Topic 3] power
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that China is currently experiencing a critical period of energy structure transformation. From January to September 2021, China's installed capacity of wind power reached 300 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity of power generation reached 280 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. New energy power is unstable. Strengthening the stability and security of new energy power through the power marketization mechanism has become an important part of China's current energy reform mechanism. In October 2021, China raised the floating range of transaction price in the coal-fired power generation market to no more than 20%, which means the further promotion of the power marketization trading mechanism. We believe that promoting the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the development of new energy and promoting the consumption of new energy power in the way of market-oriented and reasonable competition has become one of the important contents of China's energy digitization reform in the future.
Chuancai Securities pointed out that power construction is expected to enter a historical cycle and pay attention to the construction of smart grid terminal. In the context of the energy revolution, the power grid construction end will also be gradually upgraded, and the distribution network will become the core of the power system. On the one hand, the transformation of the power grid end can reduce the power grid loss to a certain extent. Since this year, under the background of "dual control of energy consumption", some regions have limited production and power. Although since October, local production and power restrictions have been loosened, which has corrected the "one size fits all" production and power restrictions and "mobile" carbon reduction in some places, However, under the background of rising power demand, there is a certain pressure on the national power supply, and reducing the power grid loss will save power resources to a certain extent; On the other hand, promoting the digital transformation of power grid and applying cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of things and other technologies to the reform and upgrading of power grid will greatly improve the efficiency of energy services.
Anxin Securities said that on November 24, the central Deep Reform Commission proposed to promote the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the transformation of energy structure and orderly promote the participation of new energy in market transactions. On the same day, the State Grid issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules, proposing that all power generation types and enterprises can participate in inter provincial power spot trading, and encouraging inter provincial green power trading. The inter provincial power spot market adopts the clearing mechanism of centralized bidding, and the unified bidding of coal-fired power generation, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and other power sources. Under the high coal price, the transaction price of wind power and photovoltaic is expected to rise, so as to improve the profitability of new energy power generation. []
[theme four] Baijiu
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) points out that the current wholesale price of Sanmao fluctuates around 2690 yuan, the inventory is very low, and the annual delivery will be completed around the end of the month; The price of puwu and Guojiao remained stable. At present, the market has price increase expectations for some wine enterprises. From the perspective of long-term sustainable development, the price increase still needs to be matched with channel control and brand strength. It is suggested to pay attention to the channel feedback after the price increase of puwu. The short-term proposal also focuses on the catalytic factors such as the good start of the Spring Festival. High end leaders and sub high-end reform targets with strong performance certainty are still recommended in the medium and long term.
Huachang Securities said that it should emphasize the Baijiu market, and choose the top end to accelerate Moutai and strong potential Fen Liquor, and recommend the theme of reform in the Yanghe River. The market demand for Baijiu in the next year is still controversial, but from the market performance, Baijiu terminal demand is stronger, and the channel is relatively healthy. The report has the spare power, and Q1 has more strong foundation than the other. Short term recommendations should be emphasized at the end of the year, including the dealer conference, the disclosure of Baijiu enterprises' business plan in the coming year, and the preparation for the peak season.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that at present, maowulu is expected to complete the annual business objectives and enter the state of digesting inventory. It is expected that the Spring Festival will start well with a high probability of realization. Baijiu Baijiu, Baijiu, the high-end Baijiu, has strong barriers, business model has superiority, and the performance is expected to be more robust in 2022. The current valuation is in a reasonable position, and the market will be brought to the market in the short term or enjoy the valuation switch. In the medium term, the capital will be the first choice for the high consumption liquor. In the long run, the high-end liquor price will remain unchanged, but only in the short term, it will be suppressed by external factors. The core logic remains unchanged, and it is still a long-term optimistic high-quality core asset. []
[ subject v] coal
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that since mid October, coal price supervision and intervention policies are still advancing, putting pressure on market sentiment. However, judging from the current coal price expectation, Q4 and next year's performance of coal enterprises are still expected to remain high. With the gradual implementation of the policy, the market's negative expectation or basic digestion of price limit, the marginal relaxation of the policy of the real estate industry chain, the further release of demand in the peak season in December and the expectation of dividends from leading enterprises all contribute to the recovery of market sentiment, which is expected to become a catalyst for valuation repair after the sharp decline of the coal sector.
Kaiyuan Securities said that under the expectation of cold winter, the coal consumption demand will rise rapidly this winter and next spring, and the terminal replenishment demand may continue to be strong throughout the peak season; On the supply side, with the implementation of nuclear capacity increase, the production area will accelerate the release of increment, and the supply tension will be alleviated. In terms of coal price, the national development and Reform Commission recently held a symposium to study and improve the coal price formation mechanism, stressed the great significance of establishing a coal price range regulation mechanism, guided the coal price to operate in a reasonable range, and made the coal price truly reflect the fundamentals of market supply and demand. It is expected that the intervention and regulation of coal prices by policies in the future will be continued, and it may be difficult for coal prices to rise or fall sharply. At the same time, we may pay more attention to the definition of a reasonable range. In addition, the national coal Fair will be held in early December, so we need to pay attention to the signing of the 2022 long-term association and the changes in the pricing mechanism of the long-term association.
The agency further mentioned that at present, coal stocks are basically at the bottom. With the stabilization of coal price correction policy, the risk factors of pit mouth exceeding the expected price limit in the early stage have been basically released. Coal stocks will return to the main investment line supported by performance, and the characteristics of undervaluation on the basis of stable performance are highlighted again. At the same time, under the background of double carbon, coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, Under the expectation of medium and long-term tight supply normalization, the value of coal enterprises needs to be revalued. We are still optimistic about investment opportunities in coal stocks. []
