Industry core view:
The global economy continues to recover in 2021, but the epidemic still shows no sign of ending. Delta virus is spreading rapidly. The newly discovered variant virus Omicron in South Africa has begun to spread all over the world, adding uncertainty to the recovery of the world economy. The epidemic situation in China is under control as a whole. The third booster injection has begun to be vaccinated, but the continuous emergence of small-scale epidemic has disturbed the economic recovery, which is expected to increase the time required for economic recovery. For the United States, the difference between the interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds and the real interest rate is expanding. Higher inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to start taper. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in June next year. It is expected that the price of non-ferrous metals growing with economic recovery will fall. However, considering the prosperity of downstream industries and future uncertainty, the decline of prices is very limited. Factors such as power shortage, repeated epidemics and rapid reduction of inventory have led to the rise of copper price. Considering that the spread of the epidemic has increased uncertainty, insufficient copper operation rate, disturbed copper supply end and improved prosperity of downstream demand industries, it is expected that copper price will remain high in the future. Under the background of the "double carbon" policy and the energy dual control policy, it is expected that the state of aluminum in short supply will continue to be maintained. On the one hand, the shutdown of some factories and the increase of power costs caused by switching off and power rationing, on the other hand, the demand for aluminum in new energy related industries is increasing, and the price of aluminum is supported for a long time.
Key investment points:
The copper industry will still maintain a high boom: the supply of copper is largely affected by power shortage and repeated epidemics, which has led to the rise of copper price. Destocking has alleviated the rising pressure of copper price to a certain extent, but at present, the copper inventory has bottomed out. Although the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next June, the spread of mutant virus Omicron has brought great uncertainty, Copper prices are unlikely to fall. The prosperity of power, household appliances, real estate and other industries in the downstream of copper has improved, which has become a new growth of copper industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of relevant enterprises.
The "double carbon" policy helps the aluminum industry: on August 17, 2021, the development and Reform Commission issued the barometer for the completion of the dual control target of energy consumption in various regions in the first half of 2021, which led to the adoption of power restriction policies in some provinces. The lack of power supply led to the inability of some high-energy consuming enterprises to start work, the decline of aluminum supply and the rise of prices. The requirements of the "double carbon" policy reduced the aluminum supply at the same time, It has increased the demand for aluminum in downstream new energy related industries, and the aluminum price is supported in the long run. In the future, it is expected to meet the demand for aluminum through hydropower, optoelectronics and recycled aluminum. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of relevant enterprises.
Risk factors: global economic situation, uncertainty of central bank policies, less than expected demand and repeated epidemic
(Wanlian securities)
