Investment summary
China, Britain and the United States have introduced a new deal to accelerate the electrification process, and the high endurance and ultra fast charging models at Guangzhou auto show have made an amazing appearance. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology has issued new industry guidelines for lithium-ion batteries, and the performance requirements of batteries and materials have been strengthened again. On the one hand, the new industry standard is expected to promote the clearing of low-end capacity of lithium iron phosphate and consolidate the leading advantages, on the other hand, it is expected to promote the improvement of ternary permeability of high nickel. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the reconstruction of a better future act, the subsidy for electric vehicles increased from $7000 to a maximum of $12500, and the new energy stimulus policy continued to be promoted. At the opening of Guangzhou auto show in November, the proportion of new energy models reached a new high. Enterprises launched a variety of electric models with 1000 km long endurance, 800V ultra fast charging and high computing power. Independent brands released a variety of high-end models with the intention of improving the layout and building a flagship.
The upward momentum of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid November remains the same. The impulse vehicle end of new energy vehicle sales in Europe and America at the end of the year: the retail sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles in mid November were 378000, with a year-on-year increase of + 122% and a month on month increase of + 19%. In November, the new forces of car making performed brilliantly. The sales volume of Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal / Nezha four enterprises exceeded 10000 and maintained a high growth of more than 20% month on month. In November, the sales volume of eight Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in Europe was 178000, a month on month increase of + 20%, with a rapid growth momentum at the end of the year. In November, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) American cars was 60000, with a year-on-year increase of + 81% and a month on month increase of + 8%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 5.6%. In the U.S. pure electric market, Tesla sold 34000 vehicles in the United States in November, with a share of 78.4%. Ford and Volkswagen ranked second and third respectively; Toyota accounts for 28.7% of the plug-in hybrid market.
Battery end: the installed capacity of iron lithium battery decreased month on month, and the head battery enterprises began to raise prices. In October, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 15.4gwh, with a month on month ratio of – 2%, of which the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was – 12%, accounting for 54.5%. It is expected that the proportion of iron and lithium is still expected to remain high driven by the hot sales of downstream iron and lithium models and the replacement of iron and lithium in the whole line of Tesla Standard Version. With the rise of emerging consumption and the increase of monomer charging capacity, the growth rate of consumer electronics lithium battery is good, the lithium electrification of electric tools and two wheeled vehicles market continues to promote, the consumer lithium battery track has the characteristics of domestic substitution and smooth price transmission, and the industry growth is still considerable.
Material end: the limited film sound is gradually eliminated, and we are firmly optimistic about the trend of high nickel. The inventory clearing of the material factory and the release of goods by traders alleviate the supply pressure. The price rise of lithium salt slowed down in November, but the price of lithium ore began to rise, and the future rise of lithium salt is expected to continue. The prices of most ternary positive electrodes remained stable, and some models were upward affected by the cobalt price. After the introduction of the new industry specifications, high nickel products had significant advantages. The price of lithium iron phosphate raw material fell, and the high price remained stable. The price of negative electrode materials is stable after rising at the beginning of the month. It is expected that the price of negative electrode may rise further due to the active preparation of downstream goods, potential temporary shutdown and upward pressure on material costs. The price rise of electrolyte raw materials is insufficient, but the price remains high temporarily under the imbalance between supply and demand.
Auxiliary materials and upstream chemicals: the supply and demand of hexafluoride is tight, the operating rate of the industry exceeds 90%, and the price rises to more than 560000 yuan / ton. The high price of solvent callback, the downstream just need to form price support. The copper foil processing fee increased slightly in September, and the price stabilized in October and November. The price of conductive agent increased slightly. The prices of aluminum foil, aluminum plastic film and polar ear remained stable.
Investment suggestion: the policy & supply is continuously optimized, and we are optimistic about the improvement of the profit margin of battery price rise. The sales volume of new energy vehicles continues to be strong. We are optimistic about the leading target with good pattern and reasonable valuation. Suggestions: 1) some power batteries continue to transmit cost pressure at favorable prices, and the profit margin is good. It is recommended to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ; 2) Domestic replacement of lithium batteries is recommended. China’s leading power tool battery ( Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ) and China’s leading 3C lithium battery ( Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) ) are recommended; 3) The shortage of supply and demand continues: high nickel cathode recommended Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , diaphragm industry chain recommended Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) .
Risk statement
Policy change risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The production and sales of electric vehicles were less than expected.
（ Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) ）
