Following the sharp rise in the prices of ocean shipping and near ocean shipping, the price of civil aviation freight has also increased by about three times recently.
"Take the China US route as an example. Before the epidemic, the price of the whole section was about 35 yuan / kg and the price of the trunk line was about 29 yuan / kg. After the epidemic (nearly two months), the price of the whole section was about 79 yuan / kg and the price of the trunk line was about 73 yuan / kg. The price rise was mainly affected by market supply and demand." The person in charge of booking business of a large listed logistics enterprise in Shanghai told the reporter of Securities Daily.
The reporter of Securities Daily learned that the cargo capacity of pure cargo aircraft, such as Boeing 747, is about 90 tons to 100 tons. According to the full section price, the Charter price is about 7.9 million yuan.
"The price of charter freight terminal has doubled compared with that before the epidemic, mainly because there are no goods in Europe and the United States after the charter flight crosses the ocean, which means that the Charter price has changed from one-way to round-trip. With the recent surge in overseas oil prices and other factors, the cost of Airlines has increased a lot. Therefore, some airlines have changed the previous charter fee into hourly fee, plus return fee and local oil price, and then added one A little profit, so the price of charter flights does not seem to increase as much as that of retail freight, but in fact, for airlines, the profit has not increased much. " Executives of a listed logistics company headquartered in Shanghai told the Securities Daily.
booking needs to spell contacts
"It is roughly two or three times higher than before the epidemic." Referring to the recent international air freight price, Zhang Hao, head of Beihai international express, told the Securities Daily, "in fact, the air freight price showed an upward trend when there was a blockage in the water transport market this summer, so we locked the cabin early in the morning".
But if you want to book shipping space, you still need to compete for "depth of cooperation". Zhang Hao told reporters that the company's global business is mainly through aviation channels and has good cooperation with many aviation giants for a long time, so it is easier to book shipping spaces. "For many enterprises, even if they are willing to bid, they may not be able to book shipping space at the current time.".
In Zhang Hao's view, the current demand for international air cargo is still strong, which means that it is difficult to see a price drop in the short term. However, in the long run, the demand and supply of international freight will gradually reach a balance. "Once the supply and demand balance is restored and the price drops, people will give priority to selecting freight channels according to cost performance".
However, the price increases of charter flights and retail freight are different for different airlines. Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) insiders told the Securities Daily: "before the epidemic, there were many international inbound and outbound flights, which can meet the demand for international freight. However, after the epidemic, the number of international flights decreased, so the price of air transportation will fluctuate. For example, the price of cross-border logistics charter flights in Europe is currently rising by about 10%."
Executives of a large logistics company in Shanghai believe that the price rise at the retail end of air transport is greatly affected by speculation. "Before the epidemic, retail freight to the United States was very cheap. However, after the epidemic, due to the lack of shipping space, it doesn't matter, it can't be lined up, and the price is easier to be fired. In fact, although the freight rate of charter terminal is also affected, it is generally limited, because charter customers are still rare."
"The air transport price between China and Europe has doubled over the first half of the year. At present, we have no routes between China and the United States, while the price of routes in Asia has not changed significantly." For the rise of freight rates on specific routes, the above Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) insiders said.
civil aviation freight
The development of freight transportation in the civil aviation industry has become an important way for the aviation department to reverse its performance. Data show that since the epidemic, listed airlines have suffered serious losses, but with the help of freight logistics, China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) once achieved a single quarter turnaround.
According to the semi annual report data, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) freight business has also made some achievements. Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) in the semi annual report, in terms of freight transportation, the outbreak of the epidemic last year led to high freight prices and huge demand for cargo holds. The company actively developed revenue sources and carried out "passenger to cargo" and other businesses. The freight revenue in the same period in the first half of last year was 421 million yuan. In the first half of this year, due to the improvement of the overall air freight capacity, the freight price fell, and the freight revenue in the first half of this year was 113 million yuan.
According to Gao Peng, an analyst in the civil aviation industry, the non delivery of goods due to the blockage of cargo ships in U.S. ports is the most important reason to stimulate the freight price rise of Sino-U.S. routes. "Christmas is approaching, and some enterprises have to give up less efficient water transport channels to air transport, resulting in a rise in air transport demand."
Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) insiders said: "Affected by the epidemic situation, at present, China's airports adopt the method of" four designations, four fixation and two centralization "to centrally manage the personnel participating in international flight support to reduce the cross infection of the epidemic situation. This control measure has reduced the number of personnel supporting cargo handling compared with the past. At the same time, the overseas epidemic is serious and there is a shortage of personnel in various service links. Taking these factors into account, it leads to This has resulted in a backlog of goods at major airports and major seaports and reduced processing efficiency, which has stimulated the rise of air transport prices to a certain extent. "
"November and December are the traditional peak seasons of air logistics. Overseas fresh products have strict time requirements, and sea transportation can not meet the demand. Many sea products need to be transferred to air transportation; after the year, the overseas demand for electronic products will increase, which will occupy some shipping spaces. It also promotes the rise of air transportation prices. In addition, the overseas demand for covid-19 testing reagent will increase, leaving it to them The air space for his cargo has been greatly reduced. " The above Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) insider added.
Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration has standardized the cabin cargo carrying standards of "passenger to cargo" flights and requested that non epidemic prevention articles be prohibited in the cabin. "This also means that the cabin cargo volume of international flights will be relatively limited, and the reduction in supply has also become one of the reasons for pushing up air transport prices." Gao Peng said.
"Judging from the current hand cargo orders of some airlines, the strong demand for air transportation will probably last until after the lunar new year." Gao Peng thinks.
air transport prices may remain high
"Since the outbreak, cargo aircraft have been operating with the maximum cargo capacity for most of the time." The relevant person in charge of Cathay Pacific told the Securities Daily that there was a huge demand for medical supplies, cross-border e-commerce services and special services. In order to ensure supply, Cathay Pacific continued to launch innovative solutions to help stabilize the supply chain and global economic recovery.
Specifically, Cathay Pacific Airlines has actively expanded its new cargo mode by carrying cargo in the belly of the passenger plane, changing passengers to cargo, regular and temporary all cargo flights, and coordinating the resources of Huamin airlines, the group's all cargo airline, to operate temporary cargo charter flights and continuously improve its cargo capacity. In addition, Cathay Pacific also weaves a multi-level freight service network by effectively connecting the civil aviation + road transportation mode to deploy sufficient capacity for the mainland market.
In 2021, Cathay Pacific refitted two Boeing 777 airliners, increasing the number of "cargo airliners" to six.
"We strive to promote innovation and digital development in the field of freight transport." The above-mentioned person in charge of Cathay Pacific told reporters, "at the end of November this year, we launched a new digital innovative booking platform 'booking easy', which provides registered customers with a simple, easy-to-use, all-weather online booking platform".
According to Zou Jianjun, Professor of China Civil Aviation Management Cadre College, the current rapid rise in international air cargo prices will not be a long-term trend. "In addition to the disruption of the supply chain caused by the epidemic, there is a very serious problem, that is, the abnormal shipping." Zou Jianjun said, "the congestion of the port has caused the decline of shipping capacity, and a large number of goods have changed from shipping to air transportation, resulting in a distorted market." In addition, rising oil prices and inflation are also factors driving up international air transport prices.
For the air freight price trend in the future, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) insiders said: "during Christmas, foreign trade companies have a great demand for air freight accommodation. It is expected that the air freight price will remain high for some time in the future."
Zou Jianjun also said that air transport prices may remain high in the next year. The time point of returning to normal prices depends on the evolution of the epidemic situation, the rhythm of industrial chain supply chain adjustment in various countries and the mitigation of port congestion.
(Securities Daily)
