In the whole hydrogen energy industry chain, in addition to the key equipment of fuel cell stack, the application and promotion of on-board hydrogen storage system is also an important breakthrough in the commercialization of hydrogen energy vehicles. Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) analysts believe that China will become the world's largest vehicle hydrogen storage bottle market, and the total market scale is expected to reach 323.4 billion yuan from 2020 to 2050. At present, China's on-board hydrogen storage system is moving from high-pressure gaseous to low-temperature liquid hydrogen storage. Chinese listed companies are making technical layout of type IV bottles one after another. Industry insiders expect that in the next 3-5 years, the subdivided field of hydrogen storage bottle will usher in vigorous development.
transition from high pressure gaseous hydrogen storage to liquid hydrogen storage
Hydrogen storage system is the energy storage unit of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, which is composed of hydrogen storage bottle, valve body, hydrogen circulating pump, pipeline and accessories. In terms of technical route, there are two on-board hydrogen storage solutions: high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage and liquid hydrogen storage. In terms of technical maturity, high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage is the most mature and the lowest cost. It is the main hydrogen storage technology applied at this stage. The hydrogen storage system of China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle mainly uses type III aluminum liner 35MPa hydrogen storage bottle.
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) analysts pointed out that compared with about 70% of foreign liquid hydrogen transportation, China's liquid hydrogen is still limited to the aerospace field and has not been involved in civil use. Only some enterprises such as China hydrogen energy and Zhongke Fuhai are trying to promote the civil use of low-temperature liquid hydrogen.
It is understood that the high use cost and safety regulations limit the large-scale application of low-temperature liquefied hydrogen storage technology, which is mainly reflected in the high requirements for thermal insulation performance. The boiling point of liquid hydrogen is very low (- 253 ℃), the temperature difference with the environment is very large, and the thermal insulation requirements of the container are very high; The liquefaction process consumes a lot of energy. 10-13 kwh of electricity is required to liquefy 1kg of hydrogen, and the energy consumed by liquefaction accounts for about 30% of hydrogen energy; The localization of core equipment and materials is low, including compressor, expander, positive and secondary hydrogen conversion unit, high-performance low-temperature thermal insulation materials, liquid hydrogen storage tank manufacturing technology and equipment, etc.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) analysts also said that liquid hydrogen storage is suitable for occasions with long distance and large transportation volume, but the unit investment is large and the energy consumption is high. At present, in terms of cost, the transportation cost of three hydrogen transportation modes: high-pressure gaseous hydrogen transportation increases significantly with the increase of distance. When the transportation distance is 50km, the transportation cost is 3.6 yuan / kg, and when the transportation distance is 500km, the transportation cost will reach 29.4 yuan / kg. Therefore, the long tube trailer is only suitable for short distance transportation (less than 200km); The hydrogen transportation cost of liquid hydrogen tank truck is not sensitive to the distance. When the hydrogenation station is 50-500km away from the hydrogen source, the transportation price is in the range of 10.4-11.0 yuan / kg, and the liquid hydrogen tank truck has more cost advantages under long-distance transportation; The cost of pipeline hydrogen transportation is mainly the pipe depreciation and maintenance cost related to the transportation distance. When the transportation distance is 100km, the hydrogen transportation cost is only 0.5 yuan / kg. However, the cost of pipeline hydrogen transportation is largely affected by the demand side. At present, the cost advantage of pipeline hydrogen transportation is not obvious when the hydrogenation stations are not popularized and the stations are scattered. However, with the gradual development of hydrogen energy industry, hydrogen pipe network will eventually become the best choice for low-cost hydrogen transportation.
The reporter observed that China's on-board hydrogen storage bottle production suppliers include Tianhai industry under Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) (600860. SH), Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (002080. SZ), CIMC Enrico (03899. HK), Yapp Automotive Systems Co.Ltd(603013) , srinda Enrico, Guofu hydrogen energy, etc. a considerable number of Chinese enterprises have begun to deploy the technical R & D and manufacturing of type IV bottles. (see the previous report of this reporter on June 7, 2021: industry observation | listed companies have laid out the type IV hydrogen storage bottle industry in China or become the world's largest vehicle hydrogen storage bottle Market) Yapp Automotive Systems Co.Ltd(603013) according to the analysis of relevant technicians, the vehicle hydrogen storage system will still be dominated by high-pressure gas hydrogen storage tanks in the next 3-5 years, but will transition from type III 35MPa to type IV 70MPa gas hydrogen storage tanks. With the development of China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market, type IV bottles are expected to partially replace the existing type III bottles. The relevant person in charge of CIMC Enrico also said that the development trend of on-board hydrogen storage system is lightweight, low cost and low weight volume ratio. Type IV bottle is more in line with the future development trend than type III bottle.
At present, the cost of hydrogen storage system is generally about 5000 yuan / kg. In this regard, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) analysts said that with reference to the technical objectives outside China, there is still much room for decline. According to the road map of China's energy conservation and new energy technology, it is expected that the cost of on-board hydrogen storage system will gradually drop to 35000 yuan / kg and 25000 yuan / kg by 2025 and 2030.
Mr. Huang, the person in charge of a carbon fiber production company in Shanghai, introduced that in terms of the current localization level of high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage, tank materials have been localized, but high-performance carbon fiber materials are monopolized by Japan and the United States; Carbon fiber winding equipment and high-pressure tank processing equipment still need to be imported, and the overall localization rate is about 50%. At present, the price of carbon fiber materials in China is stable and the supply is sufficient. Carbon fiber raw materials are not a "neck" problem in China.
the promotion of hydrogen energy vehicles will promote the rapid expansion of China's hydrogen storage bottle industry
According to the research of Shiyin consulting, the market scale of on-board hydrogen storage bottle is expected to reach US $6.9 billion in 2030. Driven by the huge heavy truck base of the Chinese market, the global share of China's on-board hydrogen storage bottle market is expected to increase to 39% within ten years, becoming the world's largest on-board hydrogen storage bottle market.
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) analysts said that according to the planning of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles released by provinces and cities, the CAGR of annual new market demand for hydrogen fuel cell on-board hydrogen storage bottles in China will reach 78% from 2021 to 2025, and the new market of on-board hydrogen storage bottles will reach 3.2/11 billion yuan by 2025 / 2030. Correspondingly, the CAGR of the annual increased demand for carbon fiber for hydrogen storage bottle production from 2021 to 2025 is 88%, and the new demand for carbon fiber for hydrogen storage bottle will reach 6 / 25000 tons in 2025 / 2030.
Some private sector investors expect that in the next 3-5 years, the subdivided industry of hydrogen storage bottle will usher in vigorous development because a number of vehicle companies and professional manufacturing companies have carried out forward-looking layout and technological breakthroughs.
Under the high demand, a number of listed companies said they had the capacity of batch delivery.
The relevant person in charge of Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) said that Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, has the international leading plate drawing cylinder technology, and has batch supplied a full range of 35MPa on-board hydrogen storage cylinders with volume specifications of 53-320l, of which 320L on-board hydrogen storage cylinders are currently the exclusive supply in China. It is expected that Suzhou Co., Ltd. will produce and sell nearly 10000 35MPa on-board hydrogen storage cylinders in 2021, The market share is in the leading position in the industry.
Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) relevant persons from the Securities Department told reporters that the company has an advanced production line of aluminum liner carbon fiber fully wound composite gas cylinders. The technology is introduced from abroad and can design and manufacture various specifications of aluminum liner carbon fiber fully wound high-pressure hydrogen storage cylinders and hydrogen supply systems with nominal working pressure of 15-70mpa. The company has the largest and most advanced design and test center and production line of aluminum liner and carbon fiber fully wound composite gas cylinder in Asia. The 35MPa high-pressure aluminum liner and carbon fiber fully wound composite hydrogen storage cylinder (type III cylinder) have been applied to the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, UAVs and fuel cell standby power supply in batch.
(Financial Associated Press)
