The hydrogen energy sector has recently reaped favorable policy support and breakthroughs in key projects. On December 3, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the "14th five year plan" for industrial green development, revealing the six development directions of hydrogen energy and highlighting the greater emphasis on green hydrogen. The industry expects that green hydrogen will accelerate its development in the next step or play a greater role in new pollutant treatment technologies. Previously, on November 30, China's first 10000 ton photovoltaic green hydrogen demonstration project was officially launched. Industry experts pointed out to the associated press that whether the hydrogen energy industry works depends on the green hydrogen parity speed. A series of policy plans and the implementation of key projects are expected to accelerate the development speed of the hydrogen energy industry.
favorable policies continue to promote
The 14th five year plan for industrial green development involves hydrogen energy, which includes six aspects: accelerating hydrogen energy technological innovation and infrastructure construction, and promoting diversified utilization of hydrogen energy; Carry out the demonstration project of hydrogen production from renewable energy electrolysis; Encourage the application of alternative energy such as hydrogen energy in iron and steel, cement, chemical industry and other industries; Develop new energy equipment such as hydrogen fuel gas turbine, ultra-high pressure hydrogen compressor and high-efficiency hydrogen fuel cell; Carry out basic research on new pollutant treatment technologies and equipment such as green hydrogen development and utilization; Promote the popularization and application of green hydrogen refining and other technologies.
In this regard, the researcher of the hydrogen energy industry of the orange Society Research Institute said that this may be a part of the "hydrogen energy top-level design". The plan clearly proposes to carry out the demonstration project of electrolytic hydrogen production from renewable energy, and it can be expected that electrolytic hydrogen production from renewable energy will usher in great development; The whole plan pays more attention to green hydrogen. Generally speaking, green hydrogen is the direction and gray hydrogen is the transition. However, the plan shows that the development of green hydrogen should be accelerated and the development and utilization of green hydrogen will play a greater role in new pollutant treatment technologies; In the hydrogen energy equipment, the ultra-high pressure hydrogen compressor is proposed separately. It is expected that the ultra-high pressure hydrogen compressor will attract the attention of all parties in the future. The "eight major parts" of the fuel cell vehicle urban agglomeration will not be excluded, and the "ultra-high pressure hydrogen compressor" will be added; Encourage the application of alternative energy such as hydrogen energy in iron and steel, cement, chemical industry and other industries.
hydrogen energy industry chain is long, and upstream hydrogen production is a short board for development
Chai Maorong, chief expert of hydrogen energy of state power investment, told the associated press that the price of crude hydrogen is very cheap, less than 10 yuan / kg. But at the hydrogenation station, it increased almost eight times. The terminal hydrogen is 50-80 yuan / kg. In terms of production capacity, China ranks first in the world, with an annual output of nearly 30 million tons. In terms of application, it is basically used in petroleum refining, hydroreforming, synthetic ammonia, methanol, etc., while the high-purity hydrogen used in fuel cells is less than 1 / 100.
In terms of demand, according to the white paper 2020 on China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, under the scenario of carbon peak in 2030, China's annual demand for hydrogen will reach 37.15 million tons, accounting for about 5% of the final energy consumption, the output of renewable hydrogen will be about 5 million tons, and the installed capacity of electrolytic cell will be about 80gw.
According to the investigation of the financial Associated Press, the whole hydrogen fuel cell industry chain is long, scattered and complex. The hydrogen energy industry chain can be divided into upstream: hydrogen production and supply; Midstream: hydrogen storage, transportation and filling; Downstream: fuel cell and core components and fuel cell applications.
The upstream of hydrogen energy can be divided into grey hydrogen, blue hydrogen and green hydrogen. Green hydrogen has high growth space due to no carbon emission at all. However, at present, China's hydrogen production mainly comes from the gray hydrogen resources of petrochemical enterprises with low-cost advantages, and blue hydrogen has become an important stage of the transition from gray hydrogen to green hydrogen.
At present, hydrogen production from renewable energy accounts for a relatively small proportion, and hydrogen production from fossil energy is still the main source of hydrogen. According to Irena's calculation, only 4% of the world's hydrogen comes from electrolytic water to produce hydrogen, and the rest comes from coal, natural gas and petroleum refining.
Under the energy structure of "rich coal, poor oil and less gas", China's hydrogen production from coal accounts for more than 60% and that from electrolytic water is less than 2%. Hydrogen production from renewable energy still has a long way to go, and there is huge room for development in the future.
Chai Maorong said that the high cost of hydrogen production is still a short board for the development of the industry, and the supply chain system is relatively scattered.
China's hydrogen purification enterprises that meet the fuel cell standards are small in scale and small in equipment scale. At present, the cost of hydrogen purification, compression and transportation in China has reached 3-5 times the cost of hydrogen production. In terms of upstream hydrogen production, the cost of hydrogen production shall not exceed 15 yuan / kg, which can meet the requirements of quantitative development of the industry.
The relevant person in charge of Sinopec told the financial associated press that the key cost of green hydrogen preparation lies in the electricity price and electrolytic cell of new energy power generation, accounting for 50% and 40% respectively, of which the electricity price is the main cost. The factor restricting the development of green hydrogen is cost, so reducing electricity price and electrolytic cell cost are the two core links for China to realize green hydrogen industrialization and scale. At present, photovoltaic hydrogen production is the main development way of green hydrogen.
According to the above person in charge, the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) Xinjiang Kuqa green hydrogen demonstration project officially launched recently is the largest photovoltaic green hydrogen production project under construction in the world. After being put into operation, the annual output of green hydrogen can reach 20000 tons. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2023. The produced green hydrogen will supply China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) Tahe refining and chemical industry to replace the existing natural gas fossil energy hydrogen production.
Chai Maorong said that in terms of cost reduction, the cost of photovoltaic hydrogen production is expected to break through in 2025, reaching about one yuan per cubic meter, ushering in large-scale development. However, photovoltaic hydrogen production is mainly located in cities with strong sunshine such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and hydrogen is used in the southeast coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta, so the cost of hydrogen transportation has become an urgent problem to be solved. He pointed out that large enterprises can build child and parent stations. The cost of 30-50 yuan per kilogram can be reduced by sending hydrogen to each child station through skid loading or special bottles (bottle replacement) through large parent stations.
According to the analysis of insiders, on the one hand, with the sustainable development of photovoltaic industry, the price cost is expected to decline. On the other hand, photovoltaic hydrogen production can be used as an important way to solve the consumption of photovoltaic power generation and play the effect of energy storage. In addition, carbon tax will also bring competitiveness to photovoltaic hydrogen production.
According to the relevant person of Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) company, the company is building a national " Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electrolytic hydrogen storage and application demonstration project". The project adopts a high-efficiency alkaline electrolytic cell hydrogen production equipment with a single capacity of 1000 standard m3 / h, and is equipped with corresponding hydrogen compression and storage equipment, which can produce 240 million standard m3 "green hydrogen" and 120 million standard m3 "green oxygen" per year. At present, 10 sets have been put into operation, and all of them will be completed and put into operation by the end of this year.
According to the person in charge of a hydrogen energy technology company in Beijing, the current unit cost of electrolytic cell is 2500 yuan / W; With the larger tank, higher quality manufacturing process, the refinement of technical links and the optimization of materials, it is expected to be reduced to 1300 yuan / W. By then, the cost of green hydrogen will be rapidly reduced from 30.8 yuan / kg in 2020 to 16.9 yuan / kg, realizing parity with grey hydrogen. Once the parity prospect of upstream raw materials is reached, it means that the large-scale industrialization of hydrogen energy has paved the way.
the profit scale of hydrogen production sector is huge
In addition to preparation, storage, transportation and terminal applications also have great room for cost improvement. At present, with the rapid construction of hydrogen pipeline and hydrogenation station, the cost is expected to decrease in the future.
In terms of terminal hydrogen fuel cell applications, galaxy securities analysts pointed out that the annual system cost will decrease by about 14% from 2020 to 2030. In the long run, fuel cell vehicles will still be the main growth force of the hydrogen energy market. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analysts believe that the hydrogen production sector has the most investment value, the hydrogen revenue profit scale is large, and the input-output calculation is relatively simple.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) analysts said that at present, China's annual hydrogen consumption exceeds 30 million tons, and it is expected to exceed 100 million tons in the medium and long term. If the sales price is 20 yuan / kg, corresponding to the sales scale of 50 million tons, it will also be a trillion yuan energy market in the medium and long term.
Bao Xinhe, President of China University of science and technology and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the key to the future of clean energy lies in green hydrogen. Hydrogen energy has high utilization efficiency, no pollution and can be coupled with a variety of energy sources. It can be said that it is the key to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization.
Sorting of related company targets:
Changchun Zhiyuan New Energy Equipment Co.Ltd(300985) (liquid hydrogen gas supply and liquid hydrogen storage tank): the company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of on-board LNG gas supply system. The R & D of hydrogen energy related projects has been started. At present, the technical reserves of liquid hydrogen gas supply system and liquid hydrogen storage tank have been made in advance.
Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (layout of the whole hydrogen energy industry chain): the company controls Feichi automobile, the largest hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle enterprise in South China, and mainly produces hydrogen fuel cell buses, van logistics vehicles, light, medium and heavy trucks and other commercial vehicles.
Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) (hydrogen storage cylinder): the 35MPa high-pressure hydrogen storage cylinder produced by the company has been applied to the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and fuel cell standby power supply in batches.
Zhe Jiang Kangsheng Co.Ltd(002418) (hydrogen fuel complete vehicle): the company began to develop hydrogen energy commercial vehicles in 2016, and hydrogen energy commercial vehicles will be delivered every year from 2018 to 2020.
Hangzhou Zhongtai Cryogenic Technology Corporation(300435) (hydrogen production): the company is the leader of cryogenic equipment. Its products include hydrogen separation unit and has the core technology of hydrogen purification; The company has made a layout in the whole industrial chain of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and hydrogenation stations of hydrogen energy.
Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) (hydrogen production): the company has formed a production capacity of 20000 tons of high-purity hydrogen per year.
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) (hydrogen production): at present, the company has a hydrogen production capacity of about 230000 tons / year, and the hydrogen supply center was completed on September 28.
Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) (hydrogen production): Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) said on the interactive platform that the company's propane dehydrogenation by-product is hydrogen. At present, one line in phase I can extract about 35000 tons of hydrogen.
Shenzhen Center Power Tech.Co.Ltd(002733) (hydrogen production): the company has completed the layout of key links such as membrane electrode, fuel cell stack, fuel cell engine system and vehicle operation in the hydrogen energy industry chain. At the same time, the company has invested in R & D in various fields such as low platinum loading catalyst, membrane electrode and aluminum hydrogen, and achieved phased results.
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) (hydrogen production): on April 20, 2020, the company said on the interactive platform that the integrated Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electrolytic water hydrogen production project started by the company is currently the largest integrated renewable energy hydrogen production and energy storage project in China.
Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) (hydrogen production): the first hydrogen supply project of the company was started in Huludao, Liaoning Province. Natural gas was used for pressure desulfurization and conversion, and then hydrogen was extracted by pressure swing adsorption. At the same time, it participated in the construction of Shanghai hydrogenation station.
(Financial Associated Press)
