review: in mid October, we judged that the main line will return to growth, and science and technology innovation will sound the horn of counter attack. On November 10, in the sharp shock of the market, we judged that the next year's market was about to start.
Outlook: cross year market has been expanded . At the same time of wide currency, the periodic marginal "wide credit" expectation is rising, which continues to promote the index market with resonance between size and size.
the cross year market has begun. on November 10, when the market fluctuated sharply, we took the lead in judging that "the cross year market is about to start" and "cherish the long window at the end of the year" and recommended the undervalued sectors represented by real estate and infrastructure at the bottom. Since then, the cross-year market has opened slowly. After the central bank's monetary policy report on November 19, we further suggested that "it will be a wave of size resonant index market" and suggested that "we should pay attention to securities companies as the carrier of market interpretation". In the December monthly report, we once again stressed that under the warming expectation of wide currency and wide credit, we continue to be optimistic about the cross year market of size resonance and index level. At present, the cross year market has been launched and has gradually become a market consensus.
at the same time of wide currency, the periodic marginal "wide credit" expectation is increasing, which continues to promote the index market with large and small resonance. 1) whether it is the economic work conference, or the previous RRR reduction and Politburo meeting, it is the signal of marginal "wide credit" that we have always emphasized. At this economic work conference, it was first mentioned that "economic development faces the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations". After three years, it was again mentioned that "economic construction is the center". It is required that "next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability" and "policy force should be appropriately advanced" "Fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated and linked, and cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined.". Under the downward pressure of the economy, the recent decision-making level has continuously released the signal of steady growth. 2) At present, "steady growth" and "steady credit" have begun to work. In November, in the case of weak corporate financing demand, social finance still increased by 10.1% year-on-year, higher than 10.0% of the previous value. Among them, the release of housing loans and the bond financing of real estate enterprises significantly exceeded expectations. At the same time, the issuance of government bonds continued to speed up and the decentralization of Financial deposits significantly accelerated. It shows that "stable credit" and "stable growth" on the policy side have begun to accelerate. 3) With the gradual stabilization of the credit environment, the release of physical workload at the end of the year, the superposition of the cross cycle adjustment force window at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and the continuous emergence of positive signals such as standard reduction, the market's expectation of steady growth and policy relaxation will continue to rise, and the phased market will enter a time window of wide currency and phased marginal "wide credit", So as to "escort" the cross-year market. Again, this wave of cross year market is similar to the spring offensive in previous years. It is also a window for a period of empty performance window, expected warming of policy and liquidity relaxation, and rising risk appetite. And it will be an index market with size resonance, relatively balanced structure and plate wheel trend.
economic work conference promotes four main lines of cross year market:
1) Pay attention to securities companies, an important carrier of cross year market interpretation. The meeting proposed to "fully implement the stock issuance registration system" and refer to the normalization and acceleration of IPO in recent years, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released.
2) New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations and undervalued repair. On the one hand, the economic work conference stressed that "cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined", and required "moderately advance infrastructure investment" and "promote the construction of indemnificatory housing". On the other hand, the meeting required that fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and the follow-up monetary and credit are expected to be further relaxed, resulting in the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors.
3) Double carbon related new energy and coal sectors. The meeting called for a correct understanding and grasp of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, set the tone of "double carbon" first and then break, and put forward policies such as "promoting the optimal combination of coal and new energy" and "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity. On the one hand, "new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control", It is expected to drive the continuous acceleration of construction in the field of new energy. On the other hand, "based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal", will also drive the valuation and repair of the coal sector.
4) Science and innovation growth plate represented by "small high tech". The meeting called for stimulating the emergence of a large number of "specialized and new" enterprises and increasing support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. At the same time, the macro environment has entered the stage of "wide currency and stable credit", and the market style will further favor high prosperity and high growth science and technology innovation and science and technology. In the medium and long term, science and innovation is the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under the policy of common prosperity. It is also the most distinctive main line of the times to get rid of the "stuck neck" dilemma under the background of China US game.
investment strategy: continue to deduce the cross-year market, grasp the four main lines and actively participate. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedical drugs (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tip: pay attention to the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
(Yao wanghou)
