Yesterday, Baijiu index, which was led by liquor stocks, rose nearly 3 months ago. The cow eye noticed that some netizens claimed to have gained the upper hand in the “vs” of “wine Maotai” and “Li Mao”, and had the urge to get into the consumer stocks.
Presumably, “Jiumao” Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rose by more than 2% yesterday, while “LiMao” Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by nearly 1%. Compared with the two, it has a little taste.
but don’t be busy. The “face beating” in the market is faster than “face changing”. Today, the wind direction has changed again – “Li Mao” has overwhelmed “Jiu Mao”.
Today Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) basically remained red throughout the day, up more than 3% and closing up 0.97%; On the contrary, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) basically green throughout the day, the lowest fell by more than 1% and closed up slightly by 0.17%. Therefore, relying on the trend of a certain day alone, we can not hastily judge whether the east wind overwhelms the west wind or the west wind overwhelms the east wind. We still have to lengthen the time to be reliable.
In other words, Niu Yanjun found one minute before today’s closing that the “Shuangmao duel” next week may not be over. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) today’s timeshare Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) today’s Timeshare
This sign can be seen from today’s time-sharing charts of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) there was a sudden change one minute before the closing, and the stock price narrowed from a straight decline of more than 3% to a close of 0.97%. It is roughly estimated that more than 210000 hands nearly 1.7 billion yuan fled ; One minute before the closing of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , the stock price suddenly turned red from the straight line of falling 0.8%, closing up 0.17%, it is roughly estimated that more than 43000 hands and nearly 560 million yuan poured into . Therefore, some investors claimed that “the funds ran from Ningde to Maotai at the end of the trading”. Source: Guba
For this worry, Niu Yanjun wants to say that he thinks too much. As early as November 26, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. issued an announcement on adjusting the samples of CSI 300 and CSI 500. Among them, 28 sample stocks were replaced by CSI 300 index and 50 sample stocks were replaced by CSI 500 index, which took effect after the closing of the market on December 10. On November 29, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Securities Information Co., Ltd. also decided to regularly adjust the sample stocks of Shenzhen composite index, gem index and Shenzhen 100 index on December 13. Among them, 30 sample stocks were replaced by Shenzhen composite index, 10 sample stocks were replaced by gem index and 8 sample stocks were replaced by Shenzhen 100 index.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in this adjustment, it will be transferred to the sample stocks of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Therefore, it is normal to adjust the position of funds in the late trading.
However, there are also differences in market views on the inclusion of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The bullish side believes that with the adjustment of the rules, investors holding the CSI 300 index in the future will not miss the next Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . But the bearish side believes that the stock whose share price has risen too high may be included in the index to find the “receiver”?
Bull eye Jun has no strong bearish sentiment on but . It is a common phenomenon that the adjustment of index sample stocks leads to fund position adjustment. What really affects the future trend of individual stocks depends on the texture of the company and the inflow and outflow of funds. The capital change at the end of today will only be a “small flower” in the future trend.
Another area of concern today is the northward Fund – another net purchase of 9.148 billion yuan (after hours data), which is the eighth consecutive trading day of net purchase since December 1. In particular, there was a “super rush purchase” yesterday, with a net purchase amount of 21.66 billion yuan, a new high for more than half a year since May 25, only a little less than the net purchase of 21.72 billion yuan on May 25.
Niu Yanjun noticed that when buying and selling stocks, many investors will respect and even follow the operation of northbound funds. They think they are the representatives of “smart money”, and they have a high probability of success in going in and out with them. However, Niu Yanjun thinks that the “smart value” of northbound funds may be exaggerated to some extent. After all, northbound funds are only a part of the funds in and out of the market. After all, they still have to follow the trend of the big market. The influence on the big market may not be as great as expected, but it may have a greater impact on a single stock. Image source:
Let’s take an example. If we assume that the northbound capital is “smart enough”, it must be a master of throwing high and absorbing low. From the statistical trend chart of northward funds in the past half year, Niu Yanjun selected five reference time points, which are:
Net purchase on June 25 was 14.1 billion yuan;
On July 26, the net sales were 12.8 billion yuan;
On September 14, the net sales were 4.128 billion yuan;
On October 22, the net purchase was RMB 13.180 billion;
On November 10, the net sales were 11.810 billion yuan;
Basically, they are the relative highs of net buying / selling amount in recent half a year. K-line chart of Shanghai index in recent half a year
Corresponding to the trend of the Shanghai stock index in recent half a year, Niu Yanjun also drew five reference time points corresponding to the above. It can be seen that, in addition to the fact that the stock index continued to decline in the same direction in the next few trading days after the net sale of northbound funds on July 26 and September 14, the trading direction of northbound funds at the other three time points was exactly the opposite to the operation direction after the stock index, that is, the stock index fell / Rose shortly after the net purchase / sale of northbound funds, Therefore, the probability of “taking the offer” or “stepping down” is not small. in addition, after the Shanghai index hit a seven-month high on September 14, it launched a rapid correction, but the North funds only sold a mere 4.128 billion yuan on the same day, which obviously did not fully predict the next downward trend.
therefore, in Niu Yanjun’s view, it may not be wise enough to follow the flow of northward funds to speculate in stocks. Just as small rivers will flow into the sea, all funds must follow the big market. It is “too silly and naive” to imagine following a certain kind of funds that can control the market.
(Daily Economic News)
