Brokerage stocks have been performing for many days.
On December 8, brokerage stocks rose again collectively, Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) rose by the limit, China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) rose by more than 6%, and Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) rose by more than 4%, with China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Xiangcai Co.Ltd(600095) rising first.
Many analysts believe that at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market as a whole is expected to get out of the cross-year market, prompting the overall rise of brokerage stocks, and the landing of RRR has further improved the market’s preference for cyclical sectors such as finance and real estate, and brokerage stocks are also expected to benefit.
multi factor resonance pushed the plate up
After trading on December 8, brokerage stocks realized the market enthusiasm again. Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) pulled up in a straight line around 2:30, and finally recorded the limit. Driven by it, the brokerage sector rose as a whole, China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) rose by more than 6%, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) rose by more than 4%, and the brokerage index rose by 1.49%.
In fact, the rise of securities companies has lasted for some time. Since December, the brokerage index has risen in five days in six trading days, with an overall increase of more than 6%.
Individual stocks rose more significantly. For example, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , from about 8.5 yuan at the beginning of the month to 9.91 yuan per share, an increase of more than 16%.
The rise of brokerage stocks is the result of the resonance of many factors in the market. The people’s Bank of China announced on December 6 that it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). The RRR reduction is a comprehensive RRR reduction, releasing a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%.
Market analysis shows that the average daily turnover of the two cities has returned to the normal level of trillion scale recently, with active transactions. From the perspective of supervision, the policy continues to be loose and good, providing a good development environment for the securities industry. In 2018, after experiencing the stage of large impairment losses caused by credit default events and the continuous downturn of the market, the securities industry began to repair its performance upward since 2019. In terms of policy, the timely RRR reduction signal proposed by the national high level recently is expected to stimulate the vitality of the overall financial sector, and then stimulate the valuation repair and upward of the securities sector.
On the other hand, the information such as “cross year market” and “spring agitation” generally expected by the market also provides a certain driving force for the rise of brokerage stocks.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) Zhang Qiyao, chief strategic analyst, believes that the market will enter a wave of index level rise in the next stage. As a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released. The improvement of market activity will also catalyze the formation of securities companies. Since late October, the market turnover has returned to more than trillion. In the future, with the continued interpretation of the cross-year market, market transactions are expected to remain active and will further promote the market of securities companies. Market liquidity remains abundant and is expected to further loosen the margin. Real estate and other sectors benefiting from the expected improvement of liquidity have performed, while securities companies are still at the bottom.
Zhang Qiyao believes that with reference to historical experience, the brokerage sector has not been absent during the “cross year market” or “spring agitation” of the calendar wheel in the past decade. In addition to the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, the market adjustment was triggered by “tight money”, the restart of IPO and the reduction of QE by the Federal Reserve; And at the end of 2016, due to the tightening of financial supervision and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the market fell sharply. In the cross year market in the past decade, the securities companies have performed.
“At present, the allocation position of the market for securities companies is still not high, and it still belongs to a place with few people. With the interpretation of the cross-year market, securities companies are expected to become an important direction of excess returns in the market game.” Zhang Qiyao said that from the perspective of valuation, horizontally, the PE valuation ratio of securities companies / banks is still at a low level in recent years. Vertically, the PE valuation of securities companies is at the 11% quantile since 2011, which is already at the bottom. Therefore, in this cross year market, securities companies, as the carrier of market logic, are still in the bottom area, which is worthy of key attention and configuration.
securities companies are basically good oriented, and investors value wealth management transformation
In fact, securities companies are not only a strong cyclical industry, but their development is also affected by many aspects of policies. However, in the past two years, under the background of deepening capital market reform, the relevant concept of building an internationally competitive investment bank is gradually accepted by the market, the policy level is also promoting the continuous transformation and optimization of securities companies’ business, and the fundamentals of securities companies are gradually improving.
On December 3, the measures for the administration of income swap business of securities companies issued by China Securities Association required that securities companies without dealer qualification should not add income swap business and stock business and settle them in an orderly manner within one year, in order to promote the standardized and healthy development of income swap business of securities companies. This paper puts forward normative requirements from eight aspects: dealer management, investor suitability management, trading object and contract management, margin management, risk control, prohibited behavior, data submission, monitoring and self-discipline management.
On the same day, the CSRC announced that “it supports securities companies to carry out pilot optimization of account management functions from the aspects of establishing comprehensive customer accounts, allowing transfer of the same name, classified account management and so on”.
Some institutions believe that the optimization of account management functions of securities companies is of far-reaching significance and is an important measure for the securities industry to practice the concept of homing and due diligence and implement the comprehensive deepening of capital market reform.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) Liu Jiawei, chief analyst of Non Bank of China, said that the reform of the capital market continues to deepen, and the more prominent advantages of establishing a comprehensive account for securities companies are to optimize the use of customer resources, expand the business chain, promote more comprehensive cooperation with banks and consolidate the cooperative relationship. At the same time, securities companies, exchanges and other parties need to be highly interconnected in terms of information and data, and how to properly arrange the privacy management of customers’ personal information is also worthy of key consideration. In addition, the convenience and timeliness of account information exchange and fund transfer among tripartite depository banks also need to be well designed.
The reform measures have continuously improved the confidence and ability of the securities industry to improve its business, but at present, the market is still most concerned about the potential of securities companies in the transformation of wealth management.
Take Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) as an example, it holds 54.53% of the shares of GF and 22.65% of the shares of yifangda fund, and both public funds are leaders in the fund industry. These two public offerings not only bring considerable income to Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , but also improve the market’s recognition of the value of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) to a certain extent.
since December, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) has increased by nearly 12%. Previously, the share price of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) had almost no correction, and the increase had reached 64% during the year, becoming the brokerage with the largest increase during the year
Coincidentally, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) and other securities companies with their own characteristics in the field of wealth management have seen a relatively good increase in share prices since this year.
“At the present stage, we believe that the long-term benefits brought by the transformation of brokerage business to wealth management mode are the main performance growth point of the securities industry. The main reason is that residents’ deposits gradually change from banks that bring lower returns and liquidity to stocks that can bring higher returns and high liquidity. The trend remains unchanged, superimposed with the pilot expansion of securities companies’ fund investment advisers and the gradual expansion of fund holdings With the rising prosperity of the securities industry and the serious mismatch between the bright performance of the newspaper industry in the first half of the year and the undervalued value, the stock price is expected to be repaired and further upward. ” China Post securities analyst Wei Dapeng said.
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(brokerage China)
