Editor's note: the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on December 6 proposed to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment and enhance the endogenous driving force of development. Affected by this positive effect, this week's large consumption concept stocks were collectively "restless", and consumer stocks represented by food and beverage, medicine and household appliances rose one after another, with eye-catching performance. Whether the consumer stock market has started and whether the "return of the king" has become a hot topic. Industry insiders generally expect that consumption is expected to gradually return to normal. On the one hand, offline consumption will gradually recover; On the other hand, a new round of consumption promotion policies, combined with the implementation of relevant policies of "common prosperity", is expected to pry the release of savings and boost consumption.
Today, this newspaper specially analyzes and interprets the four segments of food and beverage, medicine, new energy vehicles and household appliances in large consumer stocks for readers.
As the saying goes, "food is the most important thing for the people". Near the end of the year, with the advent of the traditional peak season of consumption and heavy favorable policies, this week, large consumption concept stocks returned to the wind and became the darling of the capital market again. Insiders have said that consumption upgrading is not only the medium and long-term trend of the national economic operation situation, but also the main line of medium and long-term investment. Although consumer concept stocks have been greatly adjusted since this year, after the significant adjustment of valuation, relevant concept stocks have entered a reasonable allocation range. The long-term improvement of China's economy is the biggest positive factor. The state will take multiple measures to maintain the trend of stable economic development, encourage consumption and steadily increase residents' income.
The support of favorable policies has undoubtedly become the main motivation for the strength of large consumer stocks this week. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on December 6 pointed out the practical direction for doing a good job in economic work in 2022. The meeting proposed to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment and enhance the endogenous driving force of development.
In this regard, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that since the end of September, the policy has gradually changed towards the direction of "stabilizing growth and ensuring people's livelihood". At present, the first quarter of next year may be an important observation window period for policy force, and the index may also show some performance after the acceleration of steady growth. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) also said that the first half of next year is expected to be an important window for stable macroeconomic growth. Under the economic demand of stability, the necessity of boosting consumption and strengthening the endogenous kinetic energy of the economy has increased significantly. If the consumption promotion policy is actively implemented next year, the consumption growth rate is expected to increase again.
Cinda Securities believes that the prosperity of the consumer industry is expected to improve significantly, and the downstream consumer goods industry will usher in better allocation opportunities. In the future, the market style will further switch to consumption, helping consumer stocks "return to the king".
the food and beverage sector rebounded more than 5% this week
institutions are optimistic about three sub areas
Since this year, the food and beverage sector has fallen sharply. As of December 5, the food and beverage sector had fallen by 6.8% in the year. This week, the food and beverage sector ushered in a strong rebound, with a cumulative weekly increase of 5.47%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period (a cumulative increase of 1.63% during the period). 88 stocks in the sector outperformed the market, accounting for more than 70%, of which, Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Weilong Grape Wine Co.Ltd(603779) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) and other five stocks all increased by more than 19%. It is worth mentioning that on December 8, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price broke through 2000 yuan again, driving popularity.
In this regard, ye Yuansheng, a researcher of private placement network, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that there are two main reasons for the recent rise of the food and beverage sector. On the one hand, the sector is rotating. The food and beverage sector has been in an adjustment trend since mid and late February, and the overall valuation of the board has gradually entered a reasonable range with the deepening of the adjustment to obtain the inflow of market funds; On the other hand, some products are expected to raise prices. Recently, products have continuously announced price increases, food and beverage have entered the price increase cycle, and the profits of enterprises originally squeezed by the price increase of upstream raw materials in the food and beverage sector are expected to be improved. From the perspective of lengthening the cycle, China has a large population base and is a big consumer. Moreover, with the growth of per capita GDP, the logic of consumption upgrading still exists. Therefore, China is optimistic about the long-term investment value of the food and beverage sector.
Long Hao, chairman of Jinding assets, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that with the arrival of the consumption peak season of the long Spring Festival holiday, the prosperity of the whole plate has an upward trend month on month. From the technical point of view, in the early stage, there was capital flight in the food and beverage sector, the stock prices of individual stocks in the sector fell across the board, and the undervalued value showed investment opportunities again. Overall, there are many long-term investment opportunities in this sector.
"After more than a year of adjustment, the valuation of the food and beverage sector has returned significantly and is in a low position. At the same time, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee mentioned that the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand is conducive to the food and beverage sector. Therefore, we are optimistic about the future investment opportunities of the food and beverage sector." Ma Cheng, chairman of juze investment, told reporters.
Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth fund with similar views, said that the long-term investment value of the food and beverage sector is prominent, and the allocation value is obvious when the valuation of the sector is at a reasonable level. This sector has been adjusted for a long time this year, and the cost performance gradually appears. In addition, with the frequent national policies to stimulate consumption and the emergence of catalyst events in various sub sectors, considering the performance growth next year, the layout before the end of the year may get good benefits in the valuation switching next year.
With 2022 approaching, many securities companies have recently explored investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector next year, mainly focusing on the following three segments.
First, the Baijiu field. Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that in the medium and long term, investors need to grasp investment opportunities in two directions: one is to grasp the investment opportunities benefiting from the trend, that is, to select high-end wine labels "from top to bottom"; The second is to grasp the structural opportunity, that is, strictly select non high-end wine labels with high profit elasticity and cost-effective valuation from the bottom up, and the main logic of catalyst.
Ping An Securities said that if monetary policy continues to be wide and Panasonic, the Baijiu industry is expected to replicate the 2019 market. The supply and demand of high-end Baijiu is still tight balance. With the continuous growth of product volume and price, the performance is expected to achieve a relatively rapid growth. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is recommended and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) are recommended. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu is still relatively low concentration of high-end liquor, high-end liquor prices after opening up the price of high-end liquor space, while the epidemic situation is expected to restore the banquet market, the growth of secondary high-end liquor companies increased elasticity.
Second, the field of beer. Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that the beer industry raised prices, optimized the structure, actively controlled fees and effectively released profits. In 2022, the cost pressure at the statement end of beer companies is large. It is expected that major companies will hedge the cost pressure through price increase and structural upgrading, the expense rate will be strictly controlled, and the profitability will maintain an upward trend. In addition, the continuous promotion of brewery closing and efficiency increase is conducive to improving the profitability in the medium and long term.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that the beer industry will continue the high-end trend. Enterprises with advantages in product portfolio, sales channels, brand publicity and operation efficiency are more likely to win the competition for high-end beer, waiting for the recovery of demand. It is recommended to pay attention.
Third, the field of dairy products. Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that high-end white milk and low-temperature white milk are favored by consumers due to their nutritional health, and the change of consumption habits will promote these categories to maintain high growth. In the short term, there are many leading opportunities for dairy products, the competition pattern continues to improve, and the performance release power is strong.
Looking forward to 2022, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that the supply of raw milk is expected to increase, the increase of milk price will narrow, and boost the gross profit margin of dairy enterprises; Under the guidance of the profit promotion strategy of head dairy enterprises, it is expected that the competition is expected to maintain a moderate trend, the cost investment is controlled and cautious, resonates with the upward gross profit margin, and promotes the upward profitability.
favorable policies continue to release
prominent value of pharmaceutical biological configuration
The reporter found that there was continuous good news in the field of medicine and biology. On December 8, the first covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combination therapy drug with independent intellectual property rights in China was approved. The final results of the newly disclosed phase III clinical trial show that the combined treatment reduces the risk of hospitalization and death of outpatients by 80%. At the same time, the combination gives a golden treatment period of up to 10 days.
According to the data of Zhongyan Puhua Industrial Research Institute, from 2016 to 2019, the overall scale of China's biomedical market increased from 183.6 billion yuan to 317.2 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 20%. It is estimated that the overall scale of China's biomedical market will reach 833.2 billion yuan in 2025.
In this context, a number of financial data of Listed Companies in the pharmaceutical and biological industry chain show a steady growth trend. According to statistics, among the 417 companies in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing, 286 companies achieved year-on-year growth in net profit in the first three quarters, accounting for 68.59%. Among them, the net profits of Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Yanan Bicon Pharmaceutical Listed Company(002411) , Chongqing Lummy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300006) , Northeast Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(000597) , Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002900) , Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002198) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Guangdong Taiantang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002433) and other companies increased by more than 10 times year-on-year.
In addition, a total of 336 companies further increased their R & D investment. Among them, Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological Co.Ltd(600538) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Guangzheng Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(002524) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Zhejiang Shapuaisi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603168) , Tibet Rhodiola Pharmaceutical Holding Company(600211) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002773) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Thalys Medical Technology Group Corporation(603716) , Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Pku Healthcare Corp.Ltd(000788) , C.Q.Pharmaceutical Holding Co.Ltd(000950) and other R & D investment expenses of the company increased by more than 200% year-on-year.
The data is the best evidence. Taking the above-mentioned meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee as the central axis, the cumulative increase in the pharmaceutical and biological sector has reached 9.42% as of December 5 this year. From December 6 to December 10, it rose by 1.65%, both outperforming the Shanghai index in the same period.
At the same time, foreign capital is running into the market. Northbound capital accumulated a net purchase of 48.833 billion yuan this week, setting a historical record of weekly net purchase, of which, the net purchase of the pharmaceutical and biological industry was 836 million yuan, and the market value of its position increased by 9.228 billion yuan.
Meng Lingwei, a securities analyst, believes that, on the one hand, the "new" era of pharmaceutical innovation has come, and heavy pharmaceutical varieties have gradually entered the harvest period; On the other hand, with the deepening of population aging, the continuous improvement of medical demand and consumption level, the value of high-quality medicine sector with innovation and consumption attributes is highlighted.
Xu Fei, an analyst at Wanlian securities, said that medical service and pharmaceutical consumer companies have long bull stock potential. We are optimistic about two types of investment directions: first, independent pharmaceutical consumption services represented by ophthalmology, stomatology and class II vaccines; Second, brand Chinese medicine OTC.
"It is recommended that investors actively layout traditional consumer stocks such as medicine with undervalued and excellent performance." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that near the end of the year, market investors are more looking forward to the new year's market. At present, the two most growing sectors, consumption and new energy, can lead the new year's market.
household appliances rose 5.06%
enterprises are expected to build the second growth curve
Since this week, the home appliance (Shenwan) industry index has increased by 5.06% during the period, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by only 1.63% in the same period. Liu Yan, chairman of anjue assets, told the Securities Daily: "with a series of national policy support such as the central bank's standard reduction, real estate recovery, new household appliances to the countryside and stimulating consumption, the household appliance industry as a whole has an upward trend."
In fact, the overall performance of the household appliance industry is not very ideal. So far this year, as of December 5, the index has fallen by 23.94%, while the Shanghai index has risen by 3.67% over the same period.
From the perspective of valuation, Zhuang Hongdong, chairman of the cheese fund, told the Securities Daily: "after a sharp decline this year, the valuation of most consumer stocks has fallen below the valuation center in the past five years, and there is a high probability of upward repair of the valuation. Superimposed on the background of good consumption in 2022 and the volume and price increase of consumer goods, the investment certainty of the consumer sector is increasing."
At present, the fundamentals of the home appliance industry are constantly improving, both in terms of policies, overall cost reduction and demand growth.
First, the policy is constantly positive. On December 6, 2021, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021, releasing a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that this RRR reduction combined with other factors has released the policy expectation that the mortgage interest rate is expected to be relaxed. Benefiting from the pulling effect of post cycle demand of real estate, the prosperity of home appliance industry is expected to be further improved.
On December 8, 2021, the relevant person in charge of the rural economy Department of the national development and Reform Commission said that areas with conditions were encouraged to carry out the renewal of rural household appliances, implement the subsidy for furniture and home decoration and a new round of automobile to the countryside, and promote the renewal of durable consumer goods for rural residents. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that under the background of carbon neutralization and considering that home appliances have been in the countryside for 10 years, if a new round of home appliance subsidy policy is launched, it is expected to promote the elimination of existing high-energy household appliances, promote energy-efficient products, and benefit the leading enterprises and high-quality parts companies in the home appliance industry.
Secondly, the overall cost of the home appliance industry is gradually falling. In November 2021, the monthly average price of bulk commodities copper, aluminum and rebar decreased month on month, with a decrease range of 0.13%, 10.62% and 18.40%. From the year-on-year growth rate, the monthly average price of copper, aluminum and rebar increased by 38.25%, 36.71% and 11.18%, which was significantly lower than that in October. China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the cost pressure of the household appliance industry is expected to improve marginally. The good completion of the superimposed real estate will bring new demand, and the prosperity of the sector is expected to improve marginally.
Finally, look at the demand side. According to the industry online data, the domestic sales volume of household air conditioners in October increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the production scheduling in December increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the domestic sales of air conditioners continued to pick up; Domestic sales of refrigerators and washing machines increased by 3.1% and 6.3% month on month respectively in October. The latest white power production and sales data show the trend of domestic demand for household appliances.
The reporter of Securities Daily combed the latest research report of major securities companies and found that there are three high-quality tracks in the home appliance industry.
First, there are opportunities to improve the penetration of overseas home appliance market. Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that China's household appliance exports will continue to grow at a high rate this year and will have a high base effect next year. Among A-share listed companies, white power leaders with excellent product power, mature supply chain and rich overseas operation experience have the opportunity to improve overseas market penetration and broad market space.
Secondly, there are opportunities for transformation and penetration into other industries such as auto parts. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that by comparing the development paths of the two industries, the life cycle of the auto parts industry is about 10-15 years behind that of the home appliance industry in the mature and transition period. The strategic transformation and organizational change of the home appliance industry have guiding significance for the auto parts industry. Based on the mature development experience of the main industry, home appliance enterprises are expected to create a second growth curve in the auto parts industry. Third, enterprises with traditional advantages such as brand and supply chain have investment value.
sales of new energy vehicles increased by 121.1%
the prosperity of the three sub circuits may rise
As a large consumer variety, the new energy vehicle sector has had a very eye-catching market performance this year. On December 2, the sector reached a record high of 2983.48. Statistics show that the sector rose 48.42% as a whole as of December 5 this year, ranking at the forefront of the sector growth list. However, there was a correction in the sector this week, with an overall decline of 1.1%. Among them, 135 concept stocks rose during the period, accounting for nearly 30%.
Stimulated by expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, the demand for new energy vehicles is rising. On December 10, the data released by China Automobile Industry Association showed that in November, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 450000, with a month on month increase of 17.3% and a year-on-year increase of 121.1%; From January to November, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 2.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 166.8%.
Retail penetration of new energy passenger vehicles increased. According to the data disclosed by the passenger Federation on December 8, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles from January to November was 13.9%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 15% this year, which is a significant increase compared with the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. Among them, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 20.8% in November.
In this regard, Liu Cunxin, assistant fund manager of private placement pai.com, interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily, said: "In the case of declining subsidies, the sales volume of new energy vehicles continues to rise, indicating the improvement of consumers' satisfaction and acceptance of new energy vehicles. In November, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 20.8%. It can be expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach more than 20% next year. It is believed that new energy vehicles will remain in high prosperity in the next three to five years, and the improvement of penetration rate is a long-term flat The rising trend is slow rather than overnight. Investors can hold the leading targets of the relevant new energy vehicle industry chain for a long time. "
Institutions generally believe that the sales volume of new energy vehicles has soared again, indicating that the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry chain is still in progress, and after the chip shortage pattern is alleviated, the output of new energy vehicles will also resume growth, which will probably drive the prosperity of the three subdivided high-quality tracks in the upstream, such as power batteries, lithium resources and auto parts.
Power battery track. With the rapid development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile, the sales of power battery is also increasing.
According to the data disclosed by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, from January to November 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output accumulated 188.1gwh, a year-on-year increase of 175.5%. Over the same period, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume totaled 128.3gwh, a year-on-year increase of 153.1%.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, told reporters: the top three global new energy vehicle power battery installation enterprises are relatively stable. From January to October 2021, the top three are Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG energy and Panasonic respectively. The installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranked first, the market share increased to 31.2% year-on-year, and Byd Company Limited(002594) ranked fourth, with the market share increased by 2.0 percentage points. In addition, Chinese enterprises in the top ten also include AVIC lithium battery, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and vision power.
According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, from January to October 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity of the top ten enterprises achieved a total installed capacity of 98.6gwh, accounting for 91.8% of the total installed capacity. The power battery industry is at a high concentration level.
Lithium resource track. The sales volume of new energy vehicles continues to rise, and the demand for upstream lithium batteries is very strong, even in short supply. Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) according to the lithium battery material quotation data released on December 10, the quotation of some lithium battery materials rose again, and the electrolytic cobalt rose by 2500 yuan / ton - 3000 yuan / ton; Cobalt powder increased by 10000 yuan / ton; Lithium carbonate increased by 3500 yuan / ton; The auxiliary material PVDF (lithium battery grade) increased by 15000 yuan / ton, and R142b increased by 7500 yuan / ton.
Chen Li said: "Power battery is one of the core components of new energy vehicles, and lithium is one of the indispensable raw materials for new energy vehicles. Due to the strategic position of lithium resources and the current structural shortage of global lithium resources, global enterprises continue to deploy lithium resources, and the global lithium mines are competing for" sword and crossbow ", and the competition for lithium resources has entered a white hot stage. After a large number of applications, lithium batteries have been widely used , lithium manganese iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate, lithium carbonate, cobalt sulfate and other raw materials are facing tight supply and demand. In terms of supply, although most manufacturers have new production capacity, they are mostly booked by downstream enterprises, and mainstream manufacturers are full of production and sales. In terms of demand, the sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow. In terms of policies, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the "14th five year plan" for industrial green development to strengthen investment and financing of new energy. It is expected that the upward trend of lithium price will continue in the future, and the market price may remain strong. "
Auto parts track. Zhou Chunlin, an industry strategy analyst at Wanlian securities, believes that the impact of chip and raw material prices is gradually decreasing, and the industry inventory is low. It is expected that the automobile production and sales in 2022 will be optimistic, and the rise of independent brands is obvious. In the global "lack of core" environment, independent brands respond well. Their parts supply chain management ability is stronger than that of joint venture brands. They take the lead in recovery in the short term and benefit from the development trend of electrification and intelligence in the long term. Independent brands seize the initiative of electric intelligence, and their market share is expected to continue to rise. Automotive electric intelligent core parts usher in new opportunities.
(Securities Daily)
