Today (December 13), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened higher on the whole. At the beginning of trading, the Shanghai index and Shenzhen Composite Index rose rapidly, and then the high-level consolidation pattern was obvious; The gem index stepped back after opening high in the morning, then fluctuated upward, and also walked out of the rebound pattern. Among them, the Shanghai index once stood at 3700 points and the gem index once stood at 3500 points. The rise of the index converged in the afternoon, and finally the three major stock indexes closed up slightly.
In this regard, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that in the current vacuum period of enterprise profit data, “loose liquidity + steady growth policy” has become the driving force for A-Shares to interpret the “cross year market”. The follow-up counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies support the economy, and the market risk appetite is expected to rise.
At the same time, YueKai Securities pointed out that the A-share market is still expected to usher in a “tail raising market” under the multiple expectations of policy + liquidity + marginal improvement of economic data. Near the end of the year, A-shares will face valuation switching. From this point of view: in terms of total, the economic cycle of A-shares in 2022 will be downward (both kichin short cycle and zhugra medium cycle are in the second half), and profits may be under pressure, On the one hand, it is subject to the downward pressure on the economic aggregate. On the other hand, it is based on the impact of the high base effect in the same period last year. In this context, there are two investment directions in the near future: one is the opportunities brought by the expected improvement of performance; Second, continue to pursue high economic uncertainty.
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unitary universe concept
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) indicates that the core framework for realizing the meta universe includes: hardware, network layer, computing power, virtual platform, protocols and standards, payment methods, content, services and assets, and consumer behavior. The technical architecture of metauniverse is not complex, but the implementation needs the cooperation of communication technology, computing architecture, algorithm and other technologies, follows the barrel theory, and has remained in the conceptual stage for a long time; With scientific and technological breakthroughs in various fields, the meta universe will eventually move from concept to reality.
The agency further analyzed the market space. In 2025, China’s market space will be 340-640 billion yuan. By summing up the sub sectors of metauniverse (social networking, games, short video, e-commerce, etc.), it is estimated that the market space of metauniverse is 340 billion yuan. According to Metcalfe’s law, the market space is about 640 billion yuan.
Anxin securities also mentioned that Facebook and Microsoft have entered the market one after another, and the meta universe market has driven the development of VR industry: after Facebook renamed meta and announced to enter the meta universe, on November 2, Microsoft announced at ignite 2021 conference that it plans to realize the meta universe through a series of new applications integrating the virtual environment, so that the digital world can share and communicate with the physical world. Metauniverse is a virtual and real digital world in space dimension and time dimension. It aims to form a virtual reality system including network, hardware interruption and users. It is expected to produce a considerable market in the future. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the market size of the meta universe will reach US $1.5 trillion in 2030.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the repeated epidemic and external environment such as policy supervision in 2021 have formed a short-term suppression on the industry’s stock price, and the macroeconomic downward pressure and other factors have also delayed the rhythm of the recovery of the industry’s performance. However, we generally believe that the short-term adjustment is still a phased disturbance, and the policy risks have been effectively digested, The new application scenarios represented by metauniverse are also expected to be gradually implemented in the later stage to drive the growth of the industry. Looking forward to 2022, we focus on the following directions: the development of metauniverse is a long-term process, with the continuous development of computing power, algorithm, XR, communication and blockchain technology.
2、 vocational education
Previously, Deloitte launched the latest annual education industry report. The report mentioned that since quality education covers many aspects in the process of students’ growth and development, although the just needed degree is not as good as discipline counseling and training, there are many sub categories in the field of quality education, the industry is still in the development stage, the competition pattern is highly dispersed, and there is a high degree of homogenization. At present, there is no super large head enterprise. In recent years, with the help of capital, technology and other factors, more and more large Internet companies began to enter this field. The education concept, teachers, products and business models are updated rapidly. Cross track layout and cross field competition have become a new development trend. The industry is expected to usher in a window period of rapid development.
In addition, Guosheng securities mentioned that in 2021, heavy policies in the education industry were frequent, and the policy guidance of each segment was gradually clarified. Comprehensively consider multiple dimensions such as policy robustness, sector growth, competition pattern and market space, and select the leading targets of private higher education and vocational education segments from top to bottom.
At the current time point, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) points out that two main lines are recommended: (1) Vocational Education: Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) , Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) ; (2) Higher education: at present, some individual stocks 22pe of higher education have fallen to less than 10 times, mainly due to factors such as the early education sector, the growth of school places slightly lower than expected, the tuition fee increase, the increase of investment in the future, and the recent share allotment scheme of the two companies has affected market confidence; However, it is expected that the performance of the performance period to be ushered in in November will remain stable. Yuhua education, China Education Holdings, hope education, Gaoxin education group, Zhonghui education, China Science and technology training, etc. are recommended.
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