Yuanda: weight adjustment will drag down the index. Be careful next week!

today's disk

Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes showed a pattern of shock and differentiation as a whole. Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index opened low and walked low throughout the day, with an obvious pattern of weak consolidation; The gem index opened low and went high, and the rebound trend was obvious, but it was affected by the heavy decline in the late trading, and finally closed up slightly.

On the whole, the pattern of Shanghai weak and Shenzhen strong is obvious.

In terms of industry concept, salt lake lithium extraction, energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, games, chemical fertilizer industry, meta universe concept, e-sports, film and television concept, cloud games and other sectors led the increase; Pumped storage, shipbuilding, CRO, low-carbon metallurgy, diversified finance, data security, lidar and other sectors led the decline. Northbound funds bought more than 9 billion yuan today, and the cumulative net purchase this week was nearly 50 billion yuan. As of the closing, the main funds of the two cities had a net outflow of more than 24 billion, with a full day turnover of 1.2 trillion; The weekly line of Shanghai stock index has achieved five consecutive positive.

analysis of current index position

The central bank's action of raising the foreign exchange deposit reserve did not curb the rhythm and long enthusiasm of northward funds entering the A-share market. Today, northward funds flowed again, but for the core value blue chips represented by big finance, it restrained the space for their continued upward rebound. Moreover, it can be seen that the market style has changed again to growth styles such as lithium battery, photovoltaic and metauniverse, and the weight hot spots are obviously differentiated, which also shows that the rebound strength of the future index needs careful attention; Once the heavy weight sectors such as big finance can not continue to exert force in the future, the Shanghai stock index may face downward pullback pressure next week. Therefore, we should be cautious about the market trend next week. In the short-term trend, we can first pay attention to the support near the five-day moving average (3630 points) of the Shanghai stock index next Monday.

After the gem index rebounded slightly today, the daily line stood on the 10 day moving average. From the weekly level, it recovered the five week moving average. The medium-term trend has not changed. We can pay more attention to the market rebound next week. For short-term trend, first pay attention to the integer gateway pressure of 3500 points.

coping strategies and focus

In the current market, the weight and Growth Theme stocks rotate repeatedly. Therefore, it is suggested that we continue to adhere to the strategy of "both attack and defense" and balanced allocation. Moreover, in the near future, we can appropriately increase the position allocation of ultra low consumption blue chip varieties, and other positions can patiently wait for the low entry opportunities after the adjustment and stabilization of the three growth core track stocks. Among them, investors who have already been involved in Baijiu, food and beverage, Chinese medicine, medicine, medical treatment and so on have been low. The overall position continues to be controlled within 30%.

(Yuanda)

 

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