Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, after a continuous rebound, we should pay attention to the rise and fall at any time. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the opportunity of undervalued varieties under the switching of market style. At the same time, if the index is adjusted, the potential opportunity of cross-year market will come again.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened low, followed by a shock, and rebounded slightly, but the strength was weak. Since then, the green disk position of the index has been repeated, but it has always failed to turn red and opened low all day. On the disk, the media led the rise, with non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, textiles and clothing leading the rise, while non bank finance led the decline, and mining, computer, steel and other sectors fell.
On the one hand, after continuous upward movement, the short-term continuous power is insufficient and there is a demand for stepping back; On the other hand, the central bank raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve yesterday, which brought slight pressure to banks and other financial stocks; In addition, after the substantial net inflow of foreign capital, there is also a revised historical law in the short term. However, on the whole, under the previous RRR reduction by the central bank, the market easing expectation has been strengthened again, and the overall positive trend is relatively obvious.
Combined with the market situation of that day and this week, several obvious changes have taken place in the market: on the one hand, the mood has gradually warmed up and the sentiment is picking up. In particular, the substantial net inflow of foreign capital and the boost to market confidence; On the other hand, the market switches significantly. Under the expectation of monetary easing, the valuation repair and improvement expectation were obvious. The low-level blue chips began to perform as a whole, while the relatively high growth stocks were under pressure as a whole.
Therefore, in the short term, we should pay attention to the decline after the continuous rebound of the index, especially the drag on the index after the consolidation of heavyweights. However, boosted by the strengthening of loose expectations, the market may have less room to fall, and the callback is still a good time for low absorption and potential cross-year market.
For next week, the focus is still on the optimization and optimal allocation of subject matter in the market operation. It is suggested to focus on financial and other performance support sectors with valuation advantages; At the same time, for the consumption and medicine sectors with relatively sufficient correction and strengthened short-term rebound force; In addition, the newly adjusted new energy, photovoltaic, semiconductor and other high-quality varieties can be configured appropriately on bargain hunting.
Overall, under the RRR reduction, the market easing expectation increases again. As the monetary and credit easing trend is expected to be established in the coming year, the probability of a good market trend increases greatly. The short-term northward funds, securities companies and other emotional sectors have boosted the market, which is expected to promote the in-depth development of the index. However, after continuous upward movement, we should also pay attention to possible pullback. For investors who lurk in advance, they can appropriately sell high or reduce their holdings in stages, while for investors who are still waiting, wait for the index to retreat or a good opportunity to enter and allocate.
(Jufeng Finance)
