Since December, as of December 10, the net inflow of northbound funds into A-Shares was 64.077 billion yuan. This week, the net inflow of funds from the North was 48.834 billion yuan, and the weekly net inflow hit a record high. Whether the surging foreign capital is real or fake must be a question mark hanging in the hearts of many people.
Fund Jun comprehensive multi-party data found that this time the answer is relatively certain.
Let’s take a look at the net capital inflow to the north.
the recent inflow is mainly long-term allocation funds
According to the statistics of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research combined with custody data, from December 1 to 8, the cumulative net inflow of allocation funds was 20.2 billion yuan, accounting for about 61% of the overall northward funds in the same period, and the daily average net inflow was 3.4 billion yuan, much higher than the daily average net inflow of 900 million yuan in November. Here, configuration type foreign investment can be simply understood as long-term foreign investment. This shows that the net inflow during this period was mainly long-term foreign capital.
Although from December 1 to 8, northbound funds were dominated by long-term foreign capital, trading funds (which can be simply understood as short-term foreign capital) dominated some industries. For example, in December, the 3 main trading days of the week, the main inflow of Baijiu was trading capital.
Data show that since December, as of December 8, the market value of northbound funds’ position in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has increased by 12.178 billion yuan.
Data show that since December, as of December 8, the market value of northbound funds’ position in Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has increased by 5.766 billion yuan.
Although Shanghai stock exchanges and Shenzhen stock exchanges have the largest market share of capital positions, most of the shares are liquor stocks, but this is mostly due to short-term trading capital. So the question is, what are long-term foreign investors buying and selling?
long term foreign investment to buy new energy and sell real estate
Statistics from CSI securities research show that in the past two months (from October to early December, excluding this week), the allocation funds (which can be simply understood as long-term funds) in the northward funds mainly net flowed into new energy, basic chemicals, food and beverage, computers and electronics, and mainly net flowed out of the real estate industry chain (real estate, building materials, household appliances) and medicine.
1) Northward capital allocation funds for new energy basically only focus on the lithium battery industry chain.
2) The increase in the consumption sector was concentrated in the food and beverage industry.
3) The electronics industry mainly increased its holdings of consumer electronics related varieties, and the amount of net capital flowing into the semiconductor industry chain is small.
4) In the past two months, allocated foreign capital has basically avoided the real estate industry chain, but has not reduced its holdings of banks and machinery, indicating that allocated funds at least do not worry about the diffusion of the real estate credit crisis to the banking system.
overseas China ETFs attract gold this week
Data from Bloomberg confirmed the above judgment.
As of December 10, the global (including domestic and overseas) Chinese stock ETFs had an overall net outflow of US $800 million, but it was mainly redeemed by domestic investors. Overseas listed Chinese ETFs were still attracting capital inflows, attracting a net inflow of US $500 million this week.
If the time is prolonged, the trend of foreign capital buying Chinese stocks will be more obvious. From the beginning of the year to December 10, overseas listed Chinese stock ETFs have attracted a net inflow of US $21.93 billion.
Specifically, the scarred China Internet ETF was once abandoned by funds due to Didi’s delisting news last week, but it again attracted capital inflows this week. For example, the largest Chinese stock ETF kweb listed in the United States attracted a net inflow of US $91.9 million this week. The ETF currently has a scale of more than $8 billion.
Another ETF cweb listed in the United States, which tracks China’s Internet Index, also attracted net capital inflows this week.
In addition, an ETF listed in the United States tracking the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index also attracted a net inflow of $8745 this week.
Another noteworthy data is that Alibaba ADR’s short interest has fallen to an all-time low. According to the data from S3 partners, a short position research institution, the open position of Alibaba ADR is about US $5.061 billion so far. This data shows that the interest of bears in Alibaba has fallen to an all-time low (most bears have closed their positions).
At present, bears’ interest in Alibaba ADR has fallen to a one-year low:
The bears gradually withdraw, and then the Bulls appear. From the situation of fund bottom reading including Alibaba related indexes, many investors may think the answer is yes.
top flow overseas China fund scale expansion
Since December, the scale of Chinese equity funds with large overseas scale has also generally increased. During this period, the fund master was unable to obtain the fund application and redemption data. The scale expansion may be caused by the increase of net worth, or by the subscription of investors, or both. Therefore, this data is for your reference.
Many small partners are familiar with the top flow funds in the A-share market. In fact, there are some funds investing in China overseas, which can also be called top class. At present, there are 10 funds with the largest scale in overseas issuance and investment in Chinese stocks (China concept stocks, a shares, Hong Kong stocks and China company stocks). From November 30 to December 10, among the 10 top flow overseas funds, only one has shrunk, one has remained unchanged, and the other eight have expanded.
Among them, the largest is Allianz China A-share fund, with the latest scale of US $12.627 billion, about 80.433 billion yuan. According to institutions, JPMorgan Chase has two funds on the list of the world’s top ten Chinese equity funds. European asset management giant Schroeder also has two funds on the list. UBS, another European giant, also has two funds on the list. Manulife investment has one fund on the list, fidelity has one fund on the list, and Shouyu Yingxin has one product on the list.
Well, although most of the scale of overseas top flow funds has expanded since December, the scale expansion does not mean that there are new subscriptions, but it may also be the result of the rise in the net value of the fund.
However, according to the data released by EPFR, another statistical agency, on Friday, as of December 8 this Wednesday, funds investing in stocks in Greater China had realized net capital inflows for six consecutive weeks.
Based on these data, you can rest assured.
In recent years, the long-term allocation of foreign capital accounts for a large part. In addition, we will integrate the foreign institutional strategy meeting recently attended by the fund gentleman and have private exchanges. One reason for the increase of foreign capital is that China’s monetary policy still has room. The United States will face table contraction and interest rate increase next year, and funds will worry about market liquidity. In addition, China’s inflation pressure is much smaller than that of other markets such as the United States, and its economic growth is more resilient.
(China Fund News)
