The policy setting of the central government for steady growth and the joint efforts of future policies will promote the economic recovery beyond expectations. Intensive policy implementation and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence. Abundant market liquidity will support the relay of incremental funds. The cross year blue chip market dominated by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months. First of all, the policy setting of the central economic work conference made it clear to stabilize growth in order to cope with the superposition of "triple pressures" in economic operation; Structural policies will be rebalanced, paying more attention to the coordination between short-term pressure and medium-term objectives; At the same time, the policy puts more emphasis on implementation, and the future policy synergy is expected to promote the economic recovery beyond expectations. Secondly, the overall economic data gradually disclosed shows that the economic growth toughness in the fourth quarter is strong. At the same time, the policy alleviates the real estate anxiety, the monetary policy is intensively implemented, the subsequent credit repair will last for several quarters, and the market risk appetite will continue to improve. Finally, the macro liquidity is still abundant, the market liquidity is extremely abundant, the relative attractiveness of RMB assets is still strong, and the northward capital will maintain a sustained net inflow. The reallocation of Chinese institutions and cross-year financial funds will form an incremental capital relay and drive the position adjustment of stock funds. The consensus of the market on low-level blue chips will be further strengthened. The high-low switching in the market structure will continue, and it is still recommended to firmly focus on the "three low" layout and grasp the cross-year blue chip market that lasts for several months.
policy setting, steady growth and structural policy rebalancing
policy synergy will promote economic recovery beyond expectations
1) the central economic work conference focuses on steady growth and coping with the superposition of "triple pressures". the central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The conference fully affirmed that China's economic development and epidemic prevention and control maintained a global leading position, and objectively evaluated the "triple pressure" faced by China's economic development, such as shrinking demand, supply impact and weakening expectation. Similar to the previous meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the economic work conference stated that it paid more attention to "stability" and paid high attention to the downward pressure on the economy. The general policy of the total amount set the tone of "stability first and seek progress in stability". At the same time, it stressed that we should continue to do a good job in the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" in the future, so as to strive to stabilize the macro-economic market and maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range.
2) structural policies will be rebalanced and pay more attention to the coordination of short-term pressure and medium-term objectives. the meeting also pointed out that in the first year of the 14th five year plan, many structural reforms, such as antitrust, carbon neutralization and common prosperity, were gradually introduced and achieved good results, but there were also problems such as insufficient coordination and simple implementation. This means that structural reform will usher in "rebalancing" in 2022, promote it more accurately, orderly and systematically, and pay attention to the coordination of short-term pressure and medium-term objectives, which is conducive to improving short-term pressure and fundamental expectations as a whole.
3) the policy puts more emphasis on implementation. In the future, the combination of policies is expected to promote the economic recovery beyond expectations. the meeting also put more emphasis on policy implementation, requiring all regions and departments to shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and make appropriate policy efforts. It is expected that the cross cycle adjustment of the policy will be strengthened, and the policy will show a combination of fiscal + monetary loosening in the next at least half a year. The policy joint efforts of various ministries and commissions and local governments are expected to promote the economic recovery beyond expectations.
policy implementation and data disclosure boost market confidence
investors' risk appetite will continue to improve
1) after the intensive implementation of real estate and monetary policies, it is expected that the credit repair will last for several quarters. first, the policy pays attention to the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry, maintains the style of "supporting the bottom without stimulating", and alleviates the suppression of real estate anxiety on market risk preference. Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said at the China Annual Economic Conference on December 11 that real estate is a pillar industry to strengthen the basic housing security of residents. The real estate team of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department believes that under the background of policy support to meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, the release of mortgage loans will continue to accelerate, more enterprises can get financing opportunities in the domestic bond market, and it is expected that the Financial Risk Spillover of the real estate industry will come to an end. Secondly, the implementation of monetary policy was significantly accelerated. On December 6, the central bank announced a comprehensive reduction of reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points, after releasing 1.2 trillion long-term funds; On December 7, the interest rate of small re loans for agriculture was further reduced by 0.25 percentage points. Finally, considering that the previous policy has been implemented, we believe that the necessity of LPR interest rate reduction in the near future is low, and the repair from the bottom of this round of credit cycle will last for several quarters.
2) the economic data were gradually disclosed, and the economic growth toughness was strong in the fourth quarter. first, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in November was 22%, which continued to exceed expectations. Considering the repeated global epidemic, the resilience of overseas demand growth and the complexity of supply chain recovery, it is expected that the inflection point of exports will come later than expected by the market. Secondly, the "financing bottom" has been gradually consolidated. In November, social finance and credit were dragged down by medium and long-term loans of enterprises, but the growth rate of social finance has begun to bottom up, and the trend is expected to continue until around the third quarter of 2022; Thirdly, the trend reversal of CPI and PPI has been started. It is expected that the subsequent scissors difference will continue to converge and the profit distribution among industries will be further balanced. Finally, for the economic data to be disclosed in the middle of the month, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the macro group of the Research Department expects that the industrial production intensity is better than that of the previous month; In terms of investment, the manufacturing industry has maintained a high growth rate, infrastructure storage and real estate grinding bottom; The consumption data in November was disturbed by the scattered epidemic, but it was stable as a whole.
the market is extremely liquid
The consensus of incremental fund relay is still on the blue chip main line
1) macro liquidity is still abundant, and the market liquidity is extremely abundant. first of all, as mentioned above, the loose monetary policy is intensively implemented. Under the dual constraints of stable growth and risk prevention, the macro liquidity is still abundant. Since December, the yield of 10-year Treasury bond has remained at about 2.9%, while dr007 has remained below the policy interest rate of 2.2%. Secondly, under the two major trends of real estate and wealth management, the market liquidity is extremely abundant. Recently, there are signs of recovery in the issuance of public funds. The average scale of weekly new development funds has recovered to 1.9 billion yuan / fund, which is the highest value since late August. With the main line of market style becoming clear, it is expected that the sales channel will accelerate the issuance rhythm and boost the scale of new development funds to return to a higher level in December. Thirdly, with the policy setting and intensive landing to repair the fundamental expectations, coupled with the short-term concentrated inflow of foreign capital, stock institutions also began to actively increase their positions. This week, the estimated net change of positions of common stock / partial stock hybrid public funds was + 0.5% / + 0.2%. Channel research data showed that small and medium-sized private placement positions have increased rapidly in the past two weeks.
2) the relative attraction of RMB assets is still strong, and the northward capital will maintain a sustained net inflow. the disturbance of Omicron strain has not dissipated yet. Under the unique epidemic prevention and control strategy, the probability of China's economy being disturbed by the new strain is very low. It will further enhance its importance in the global supply chain and have a more obvious advantage in relative growth, which improves the attractiveness of Chinese assets in the world. After the rapid strengthening of RMB in the short term, The central bank's increase in the foreign exchange reserve ratio is only to control the pace of appreciation and does not change the trend of RMB appreciation over the next year. At the same time, the accumulated net inflow of northbound funds since December has been 64.1 billion yuan. On the one hand, historical data show that there is often inertia after the short-term net inflow of northbound funds. After the past 30 single day inflows of more than 10 billion yuan, in most cases (93.3%), the net inflow will remain in the next 30 trading days, with an average of about 41.7 billion yuan; At the same time, trading funds have no obvious inflow or outflow tendency in the same period.
3) the consensus of market funds on low-level blue chips will be further strengthened. the Income Differentiation of active public offering products is still obvious this year. The average yields of the top 20% and the bottom 20% products are 37% and - 7% respectively, with a difference of 44 PCTs. In addition to a few top ranked products that still need to sprint at the end of the year, the main task of most products in December is to lay out for next year. With abundant liquidity and extremely differentiated market characteristics, this year's high boom varieties are easy to quickly overdraw the valuation space for a long time in the future, while the damaged varieties are easy to reflect all kinds of negative expectations in advance, and may be more sensitive to any positive marginal changes in the future. From the perspective of institutional layout next year, it is expected that with the end of the ranking at the end of the year, it will gradually become a consensus to avoid the track with sufficient expectations and turn to the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be still low, the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low and the high boom varieties whose adjusted share price is relatively low.
incremental capital relay
blue chip market continues
Several factors waiting for the market have been implemented one after another, and the cross-year blue chip market has started after crossing the critical point. After the policy setting and steady growth, the future policy synergy will continue to improve the fundamental expectations. The intensive implementation of policies and data disclosure will boost market confidence, while abundant liquidity supports the relay of incremental funds. The cross year blue chip market driven by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months. structurally, the high-low switching will continue. It is recommended to firmly focus on the "three low" layout. focuses on: 1) the expected low level of the basic varieties, and the middle manufacturing, which is suppressed by cost and supply chain problems, such as small household electrical appliances , automotive parts , power equipment , etc., will gradually add some consumption and pharmaceutical industries that are worth a reasonable regression to the region, such as Baijiu, food, tax exemption, medical equipment, etc. Vaccine etc; 2) For varieties with relatively low valuation, focus on high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, as well as Hong Kong stock Internet leader after experiencing the impact of China stock market; 3) High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment , special chip devices and military industry promoted by localization logic.
risk factors
The global epidemic situation is repeated and the vaccination is not as expected; The friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of China's economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad has tightened more than expected; The impact of the new strain in South Africa exceeded expectations.
( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) study)
