the A-share market fluctuated upward this week, led by the consumer industry. The top three industries were social services, food and beverage and household appliances. first, market expectations were further relaxed under policy information such as RRR reduction and Politburo meeting; Second, the impact expectation caused by the mutant Omicron decreased, and the panic index VIX dropped sharply from 35% last Friday to 19% this week; Third, PPI decreased, CPI increased slightly, ppi-cpi scissors gap further converged, consumer cost side improved, and the expectation of terminal price rise further rose.
the core statement of the central economic work conference pays attention to the following three points : (1) it is more cautious in the expression of the economy, “stability first”, and it is first mentioned that China’s economic development is facing “triple pressure”; (2) Under the idea of “cross cycle regulation”, the policy “receives first and broadens first”: “the policy force should be appropriately advanced” and “infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance”; (3) In terms of the specific implementation mode of “stability”, focus on “one plus one stability”: “plus” makes efforts in the “double carbon cycle”, and “stability” continues to “stabilize real estate and infrastructure”.
this meeting requires “correctly understand and grasp carbon peak and carbon neutralization”. For the total amount and structure of carbon neutralization policy in the future: (1) “the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy”: energy storage is the key to improve the stability of green electricity. (2) “Pay close attention to clean and efficient utilization of coal and increase the consumption capacity of new energy”: the differentiation of coal enterprises is intensified, and the total demand is not blindly limited. The consumption problems are mainly power grid transmission and power peak shaving. UHV and energy storage (pumped storage) are expected to develop; (3) “The new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control”: the total energy consumption controls the coal consumption (used as fuel, material and power), the new energy and raw material energy consumption (raw material coal such as coal, chemical raw material, coking coal, Petrochemical Fiber, etc.) are not within the scope, and the upstream supply release of optical and wind power will repair the profits of the middle and lower reaches; (4) “Double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity “: there are structural opportunities for high-carbon industrial assets (such as special steel and green buildings).
microstructure, capital going north and raising foreign exchange reserves all point to the end of the year and the beginning of the year. (1) the microstructure has been repaired to a relatively healthy range, and the market value is unlikely to have a dominant impact on the style of the A-share market next year; (2) Historically, after the rapid inflow of funds from northbound, the market can often keep rising in the short and medium term; (3) The increase of foreign exchange deposit reserve is the central bank’s reversal of “appreciation stampede”, which has little impact on a shares.
the market is still, and it is recommended to allocate the high and low areas in a balanced manner. the total volume setting of the central economic work conference is basically consistent with the meeting of the Political Bureau (see 12.6 “stability first”). At present, to the beginning of the 22nd year, A-Shares are in the “vacuum period” of profit, the stable growth expectation is confirmed, and the market is still in the stage of profitability. When the microstructure is in a relatively healthy range, it is suggested that the industry allocation should be balanced in high and low areas: (1) securities companies with liquidity + marginal improvement in fundamentals under the RRR reduction; (2) New energy (wind power, photovoltaic power plants / modules, new energy vehicles – parts) with resonance between supply and demand and military industry with supply and demand gap under the steady growth of double carbon wide credit + new infrastructure; (3) Business expectation and fund allocation hit the bottom, and white electricity and food processing expected to benefit under ppi-cpi transmission. Gold configuration double bottom + price increase clue (food processing).
risk tips:
Repeated epidemic control, the global economic downturn exceeded expectations, and overseas uncertainty.
(Dai Kang’s strategic world)
