Last week, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement to stimulate the strength of A-Shares again. Important stock indexes such as Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 broke through the box of horizontal trading for five months, making the cross year market ready to emerge. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.47%, the gem index fell 0.34%, and the Kechuang 50 index fell 0.63%.
Northward capital accelerated the inflow of a shares, and a number of data broke historical records. The weekly net purchase exceeded 48.8 billion yuan, the highest in a single week's history; Since this year, the cumulative net purchase has exceeded 400 billion yuan, also the best level in history; Since the opening of the Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect, the cumulative net purchase has also exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan for the first time; The cumulative net purchase of Shenzhen Stock connect also exceeded 800 billion yuan for the first time.
In addition, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10, setting the tone for 2022.
How will the stock market perform next? Mr. Shibao sorted out the main viewpoints of the eight major securities companies for reference:
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : firmly focus on the layout of "three lows" and grasp the cross year blue chip market that lasted for several months
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the policy setting of the central government for steady growth and the joint efforts of future policies will promote the economic recovery beyond expectations, intensive policy implementation and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence, abundant market liquidity supports the relay of incremental funds, and the cross year blue chip market dominated by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months.
In terms of policy setting, first of all, the policy setting of the central economic work conference is clear to stabilize growth in order to cope with the superposition of "triple pressures" in economic operation.
Secondly, structural policies will be rebalanced, paying more attention to the coordination between short-term pressure and medium-term objectives; Overall, it is conducive to improving short-term pressure and fundamental expectations.
Finally, the policy puts more emphasis on implementation, and the future policy synergy is expected to promote the economic recovery beyond expectations. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that the cross cycle adjustment of the policy will be strengthened, and the policy will show a combination of fiscal + monetary loosening in the next at least half a year. The joint efforts of various ministries and local policies are expected to promote the economic recovery beyond expectations.
In terms of policy implementation, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the overall economic data gradually disclosed shows that the economic growth toughness in the fourth quarter is strong. At the same time, the policy alleviates the real estate anxiety, the monetary policy is intensively implemented, the subsequent credit repair will last for several quarters, and the market risk preference will continue to improve.
In terms of market liquidity, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that macro liquidity is still abundant and the market liquidity is extremely abundant. Specifically:
1. The loose monetary policy has been intensively implemented. Since December, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has remained at about 2.9%, while dr007 has remained below the policy interest rate of 2.2%.
2. Recently, there are signs of recovery in the issuance of public funds. The average scale of weekly new development funds has recovered to 1.9 billion yuan / fund, which is the highest value since late August. With the main line of market style becoming clear, it is expected that the sales channel will accelerate the issuance rhythm and boost the scale of new development funds to return to a higher level in December.
3. Stock institutions have also begun to actively increase their positions. This week, the estimated net change of positions of common stock / partial stock hybrid public offering funds is + 0.5% / + 0.2%. Channel research data show that small and medium-sized private placement positions have increased rapidly in the past two weeks.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the relative attraction of RMB assets is still strong, and the northward capital will maintain the trend of continuous net inflow. The reallocation of Chinese institutions and cross-year financial funds will form an incremental capital relay and drive the position adjustment of stock funds. The consensus of the market on low-level blue chips will be further strengthened.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that several factors waiting for the market have been implemented one after another, the cross-year blue chip market after crossing the critical point has been started, and the cross-year blue chip market driven by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months. Structurally, the high-low switching will continue. It is recommended to firmly focus on the "three low" layout. Focus on:
1) the expected low level of the basic varieties, and the early stage manufacturing of the middle reaches, which are suppressed by cost and supply chain problems, such as small household appliances, auto parts and power equipment, will gradually be allocated to some sectors of consumption and medicine, such as Baijiu, food, tax exemption, medical equipment, vaccines, and so on.
2) For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, pay attention to the high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, as well as the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of China concept stocks;
3) High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment driven by localization logic, special chip devices and military industry.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : A-Shares are in a profit "vacuum period", and the market is still in a viable stage
Dai Kang team of GF strategy believes that the total tone of this central economic work conference is basically consistent with that of the Politburo meeting. At present, to the beginning of the 22nd year, A-Shares are in the "vacuum period" of profit, the stable growth expectation is confirmed, and the market is still in the stage of profitability.
Dai Kang's team believes that three points should be paid attention to in the core statement of the central economic work conference:
(1) In terms of economic expression, it is cautious, "stability" comes first, and it is first mentioned that China's economic development is facing "triple pressure";
(2) Under the idea of "cross cycle regulation", the policy "receives first and broadens first": "the policy force should be appropriately advanced" and "infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance";
(3) In terms of the specific implementation mode of "stability", focus on "one plus one stability": "plus" makes efforts in the "double carbon cycle", and "stability" continues to "stabilize real estate and infrastructure".
In terms of "double carbon" work, this meeting requires "correctly understand and grasp carbon peak and carbon neutralization". According to the spirit of this meeting, there are four main aspects for the total amount and structure of future carbon neutralization policies:
(1) "The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy": energy storage is the key to improve the stability of green electricity.
(2) "Pay close attention to clean and efficient utilization of coal and increase the consumption capacity of new energy": the differentiation of coal enterprises is intensified, and the total demand is not blindly limited. The consumption problems are mainly power grid transmission and power peak shaving. UHV and energy storage (pumped storage) are expected to develop;
(3) "The new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control": the total energy consumption controls the coal consumption (used as fuel, material and power), the new energy and raw material energy consumption (raw material coal such as coal, chemical raw material, coking coal, Petrochemical Fiber, etc.) are not within the scope, and the upstream supply release of optical and wind power will repair the profits of the middle and lower reaches;
(4) "Double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity ": there are structural opportunities for high-carbon industrial assets (such as special steel and green buildings).
Dai Kang's team believes that at present, (1) the microstructure has been repaired to a relatively healthy range, and the market value is unlikely to have a dominant impact on the style of the A-share market next year; (2) On December 9, the net inflow of funds to the North reached 21.6 billion yuan, the second highest in a single day in history, only slightly less than the highest 21.7 billion yuan on May 25, 21. Looking back on history, after the rapid inflow of funds going north, the market can often keep rising in the short and medium term; (3) The increase of foreign exchange deposit reserve is the central bank's reversal of "appreciation stampede", which has little impact on a shares.
Dai Kang's team believes that the total tone of this central economic work conference is basically consistent with that of the Politburo meeting. The weight of steady growth is increasing, but it is not radical, which is basically in line with market expectations. Under the idea of "cross cycle regulation", fiscal policy takes the lead in making efforts, monetary policy "broadens money and stabilizes credit", and the importance of "stable growth" has increased under the current policy environment. At present, to the beginning of the 22nd year, A-Shares are in a profit "vacuum period", the stable growth expectation is confirmed, and the market is still in a feasible stage. When the microstructure goes to a relatively healthy range, the industry allocation suggests balanced allocation between high and low areas, and pays attention to the marginal improvement of policy expectation and the clue of "stable growth of structural credit":
(1) Securities firms with liquidity + marginal improvement in fundamentals under RRR reduction;
(2) New energy (wind power, photovoltaic power plants / modules, new energy vehicles - parts) with resonance between supply and demand and military industry with supply and demand gap under the steady growth of double carbon wide credit + new infrastructure;
(3) Business expectation and fund allocation hit the bottom, and white electricity and food processing expected to benefit under ppi-cpi transmission.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : downward risk assessment and rising risk appetite boost the cross year market to a higher level
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Chen Xianshun's team believes that policies strengthen the primary demand for stable growth, clear core contradictions, reduce economic uncertainty, lower risk assessment and higher risk preference, and help the cross year market.
From the perspective of nearly one month and one week, the Shanghai index rose by 4.98% and 1.63% respectively. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets traded trillion transactions for 36 consecutive days, and the upward growth trend is still continuing. Looking forward to the future, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the reduction of economic uncertainty will lead to the decline of risk assessment and the rise of risk preference. On the one hand, the 2021 economic work conference pointed out that the economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, and steady growth has become the primary goal of economic work. With the strengthening of fiscal policy expenditure and the front pace, the monetary policy is stable and wide, superimposed with the endogenous force of structural industrial policy, and the pessimistic expectation of economic downturn is expected to ease.
On the other hand, it emphasizes the "correct understanding" of a series of important issues such as dual control of energy consumption and carbon neutralization, positive role of capital and savage growth, which effectively reduces the uncertainty of market concerns from the perspective of policy correction. Based on the above, we believe that with the gradual clarity of the core contradiction, the downward expectation of profit is gradually repaired, and the denominator is pushing the cross year market to a higher level.
For the large financial sector, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that previously, the real estate problem was the biggest resistance to the market start of the financial sector. However, recently, with the gradual improvement of real estate risk expectations, the undervalued financial direction represented by securities companies has high allocation value. On the whole, within the framework of "real estate without speculation", it focuses more on improving the financing environment for the supply side and dredging the internal operation of the industry. The structural "loose" + virtuous cycle in the real estate field complement each other, and the negative feedback effect of real estate is expected to be broken, so as to activate the allocation value of the large financial sector.
In terms of consumption, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that starting from the logic of "export → manufacturing → employment → consumption", in view of the three factors of stable policy growth, double control and correction, and export toughness supporting employment in 2022, consumer demand can be repaired. In the future, the consumer market will be opened by the main line of price rise. With the higher than expected toughness of demand, the consumer market will expand and spread.
For plate configuration, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) recommended:
1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend Baijiu, pig, household appliances, furniture, and social service / tourism with support and negative expectations.
2) Finance: securities companies and banks;
3) Technology manufacturing: consumer electronics and semiconductors;
4) New energy: high prosperity directions such as photovoltaic and new energy vehicles.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the growth style may temporarily lag behind the A-share market, and the main trading line turns to "steady growth"
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that looking forward, we still need to continue to pay attention to the "reversal" of the global economic cycle and the new changes of the epidemic situation. At present, China's capital market is in a more favorable environment than the world. Under the expectation of "steady growth", we should pay attention to the progress of policy countercyclical regulation in the future. In terms of style, with the possible implementation of social finance credit and financial planning and deployment, the main line of "stable growth" will continue. Since the beginning of the year, some relatively strong manufacturing growth styles may be relatively backward temporarily, and the market style may temporarily show a pattern of "big strength and small weakness".
In terms of industry configuration, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) suggests paying attention to three directions:
1) Areas potentially supported by marginal change or development of policies, including industrial chains related to stable demand for real estate (household appliances, home furnishings, building materials, real estate, etc.), potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc;
2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium - and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including food and beverage, medicine, household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc;
3) It may be restrained in the short term and pay attention to the manufacturing direction with high prosperity in the medium term, including new energy vehicles, new energy and scientific and technological hardware semiconductors. It selects shares and configures them according to the change of prosperity degree of industrial chain links, with special attention to the manufacturing opportunities in transmission and distribution upgrading, auto parts and other links.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : key words in 2022 - "science and technology, green development"
BOC strategy believes that the central economic work conference not only sets the economic tone for the coming year, but also plays an important guiding role in the direction of stock market investment. In 2015, the "Internet plus", the supply side structure reform in 2016, the "deleveraging" in 2018, and the "Internet platform anti-monopoly" in 2021 were all important investment clues.
BOC strategy believes that the key word in 2022 will be "science and technology, green development".
In terms of macro policy, BOC strategy said that the tone of this meeting can be described as "stable but entrusted":
(1) In terms of basic tone setting, "steady word comes first". This meeting continues the tone of "six guarantees" and "six stabilities" set at last year's economic work conference. At the same time, it puts more emphasis on "stability" and points out that "the policy force should be properly advanced". It can be seen that this meeting has significantly increased its appeal for maintaining stability in macro fundamentals.
(2) In terms of fiscal policy, it is clearly required to "force ahead". Compared with the previous statement, this meeting not only continued to emphasize "ensuring expenditure intensity", but also pointed out "accelerating expenditure progress and implementing new tax reduction and fee reduction policies". It is expected that the pace of local bond issuance is expected to accelerate at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. In the face of the current severe downward pressure on fundamentals, infrastructure investment will become an important means of supporting the short-term economy.
(3) In terms of monetary policy, "stability first". There has been no major change in this tone setting, and "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity". It is expected that stability will still be the main tone of monetary policy next year, and the phased exchange of volume and price is still the primary hedging means.
(4) In terms of real estate policy, the marginal structural easing under "real estate is not fried". This meeting continues the previous tone of "no speculation in housing and housing", and re mentions "implementing policies for the city" and "promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing". From this point of view, the marginal easing of policies in the real estate industry is still based on the bottom line thinking of preventing industry risks, and there is no possibility of significant easing in the total amount.
BOC strategy believes that next year's macro policy will generally have a certain marginal easing, and fiscal policy will become the main driving point. However, it is difficult to make a comprehensive positive turn. Under the setting tone of "real estate living without speculation", it is difficult to make a significant loosening of the total amount throughout the year, but in terms of rhythm, the time point of steady growth will be advanced. This may also further drive the cross year market of value blue chips. However, from the perspective of the whole year, BOC strategy believes that the repair degree of macro fundamentals is limited, and the market is more reflected in expectation driven and valuation repair, which is difficult to be sustainable. Under the loose positioning of recession, the leading industries and counter cyclical TMT passing through short cycles will reflect greater performance flexibility and comparative advantages.
On the whole, the development expectation of traditional industries is stable, which is conducive to valuation and emotional repair, but the policy tone is still not strong stimulation. Therefore, the characteristics of insufficient medium and long-term profit elasticity of relevant industries still exist. What is clear is the focus of the goal of high-quality economic development, including the upgrading of manufacturing industry represented by "specialized and special new" enterprises; The three-year action plan for the reform of the scientific and technological system and the ten-year plan for basic research are the starting points for the escort of the basic scientific and technological system; The leading industries represented by the re carding of the dual carbon policy accelerated their development.
In addition, according to BOC's strategy, the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system has been put on the agenda. At present, the registered issuance system has been running smoothly on the science and innovation board and the gem for several years. Since the reform of the gem in 2020, the number / amount of registered Issuance companies accounts for 65.3% / 62% of the total issuance in the same period, which has been the main way of IPO at present; Taking the gem as an example, the average monthly issuance number in the first 15 months / the last 15 months of the reform was 5.3/14.7, and the average issuance P / E ratio was 21.8/28.4 times, which was significantly improved. After the registration system is implemented on the main board in the future, the issue pricing of listed companies will be more market-oriented, the identification of company quality and the exploration of value will depend more on the professionalism of investors, and the institutional arbitrage exposure will be reduced; For the st sector, at present, it is mainly the main board companies, accounting for 87%. After the implementation of the new delisting regulations at the end of 2020, the sector will nearly double in 2021. After the main board issuance registration system, the value of this shell will be revalued in the future.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : fully participate in the cross year market
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the policy setting of the central economic work conference is stable growth, the force is appropriately advanced, and the positive signal of the policy has been confirmed. Growth is expected to bottom out, liquidity is abundant and positive compared with the previous period, and risk appetite is significantly improved. At present, we should fully participate in the cross year market and layout. In terms of industry allocation, stick to growth, pay attention to the structural opportunities of consumption and finance and the infrastructure chain benefiting from the advance of policies. In terms of theme investment, pay attention to the investment opportunities replaced by military industry + digital currency + basic industrial chain.
Specifically:
In terms of growth, the growth rate is expected to bottom out and pick up. In November, CPI continued to rise, with obvious pull of fresh vegetables and aquatic products and obvious weakening of pork drag. It is expected to fall slightly in December. The year-on-year decline of PPI was mainly affected by the adjustment of coal price. The peak of PPI in October has passed, and it will start to fall gradually in the follow-up, but the speed may be slightly slower than the market expectation. It mainly comes from the downward speed or relative slowdown of coal price under the background of strong market demand. In November, exports continued to maintain an ultra-high boom. The growth rate of export commodities related to holidays and lack of core lines increased significantly. Except Japan, exports to other mainstream economies increased to varying degrees this month. It is expected that in December, in the peak export season at the end of the year and with strong external demand, exports are expected to remain high.
The signal of more abundant liquidity has been confirmed, supporting the full flowering of market layout. The decision-making level set the tone of "organic combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies", superimposing the implementation of RRR reduction and the reduction of refinancing interest rate, and the monetary support to the market will be more obvious. In terms of finance, the expenditure intensity and progress are more positive than those in the early stage, and the follow-up of social finance is expected to be further warmed up. Positive policy signals boosted the downward trend of interest rate probability, and micro liquidity gave strong support.
In terms of risk appetite, the macro policy tone of "steady growth" was obvious, slightly exceeding market expectations. The risk disposal of primary products, real estate and finance is more gentle and controllable. The central economic work conference released a positive and optimistic policy tone and signal, which will become the most important support and guarantee to boost market risk appetite and gradually expand the cross year market.
For the follow-up configuration, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that we can turn to a more positive idea and tilt from structural to comprehensive configuration. First, in terms of growth, we will continue to adhere to the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage and semiconductors in the medium term, and further explore the links of capacity supply and demand gap and profit improvement in the industrial chain, such as the profit improvement of photovoltaic middle and downstream modules; The second is the infrastructure chain, and the building materials sector benefiting from the advance force of the policy is added; Third, the direction of consumption and structural opportunities, focusing on the automobile industry recovery and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery benefiting from the price rise; Fourth, in the financial direction, in addition to the securities companies affected by the trading volume and comprehensive registration system, the additional allocation policy eases the superposition of real estate with valuation repair, as well as banks with corresponding asset quality improvement.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : economic work conference promotes four main lines
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) the strategy team believes that the cross year market has been launched and has gradually become a market consensus. Looking forward to the future, while broadening the currency, the phased marginal "wide credit" expectation is rising, which continues to promote the index market with size resonance.
Specifically, (1) whether it is the economic work conference, or the previous RRR reduction and Politburo meeting, it is a marginal "wide credit" signal. At this economic work conference, it was first mentioned that "economic development faces the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations". After three years, it was again mentioned that "economic construction is the center". It is required that "next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability" and "policy force should be appropriately advanced" "Fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated and linked, and cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined.". Under the downward pressure of the economy, the recent decision-making level has continuously released the signal of steady growth.
(2) At present, "steady growth" and "steady credit" have begun to work. In November, in the case of weak corporate financing demand, social finance still increased by 10.1% year-on-year, higher than 10.0% of the previous value. Among them, the release of housing loans and the bond financing of real estate enterprises significantly exceeded expectations. At the same time, the issuance of government bonds continued to speed up and the decentralization of Financial deposits significantly accelerated. It shows that "stable credit" and "stable growth" on the policy side have begun to accelerate.
(3) With the gradual stabilization of the credit environment, the release of physical workload at the end of the year, the superposition of the cross cycle adjustment force window at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and the continuous emergence of positive signals such as standard reduction, the market's expectation of steady growth and policy relaxation will continue to rise, and the phased market will enter a time window of wide currency and phased marginal "wide credit", So as to "escort" the cross-year market.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) stressed that this wave of cross year market is similar to the spring offensive in previous years. It is also a window for a period of empty performance window, expected warming of policy and liquidity relaxation, and rising risk appetite. And it will be an index market with size resonance, relatively balanced structure and plate wheel trend.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) it is judged that the economic work conference will boost the four main lines of the cross year market:
(1) pay attention to securities companies, an important carrier of cross year market interpretation. the meeting proposed to "fully implement the stock issuance registration system", referring to the normalization and acceleration of IPO in recent years, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released.
(2) new and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from stable growth expectations and undervalued repair. on the one hand, the economic work conference stressed that "cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined", and required "moderately advance infrastructure investment" and "promote the construction of indemnificatory housing". On the other hand, the meeting required that fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and the follow-up monetary and credit are expected to be further relaxed, resulting in the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors.
(3) dual carbon related new energy and coal sectors. the meeting called for a correct understanding and grasp of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, set the tone of "double carbon" and put forward policies such as "promoting the optimal combination of coal and new energy" and "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity. On the one hand, "new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control", It is expected to drive the continuous acceleration of construction in the field of new energy. On the other hand, "based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal", will also drive the valuation and repair of the coal sector.
(4) science and innovation growth plate represented by "small high tech". the meeting called for stimulating the emergence of a large number of "specialized and special new" enterprises and increasing support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. At the same time, the macro environment has entered the stage of "wide currency and stable credit", and the market style will further favor high p
