December is about to pass, and the market will soon usher in the new year’s Day holiday. There is a hot discussion on “holding money for the holiday” or “holding shares for the holiday”. Looking back on the performance of the Shanghai stock index on New Year’s day since 2000, it is found that the market performance is the best two weeks after the festival, with a rise probability of 68.18%.
Statistics show that the market has a high probability of rising in the two weeks after new year’s day. In the past 22 years, the Shanghai index has risen for 15 years, with an average increase of 0.63%. In addition, throughout January, the probability of the stock index rising was 54.55%.
In contrast, the overall performance in December was relatively balanced, with an increase probability of 50% in the past 22 years. However, the increase probability in the first two weeks of the festival increased to 54.55%.
For the market in December this year, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities believes that the end of the policy is determined, or the “spring agitation” may be started. The essence of “restless market” is valuation expansion. It is expected to “sail” for growth. It is suggested that there are three directions for Trend Investment: first, maintain a optimistic cycle with growth attributes; Second, emphasize the scientific and technological transformation attribute of the meta universe and firm layout; Third, we must allocate consumption varieties step by step.
Looking forward to 2022, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the market and value may be slightly better in 2022, and the CSI 300 is expected to be slightly better than the CSI 500. Haitong believes that the market value style is expected to continue the trend since 2016 last year, that is, the market is slightly better; In terms of growth value style, from the perspective of time, the dominant cycle of this round of growth lasts for three years, and there may be continuation of the growth style in the future. However, considering that the valuation premium of the relative value of growth is relatively obvious, the style is expected to return to value slightly next year, similar to the overall dominant growth in the middle of 2009-2015, but the style also shifted to value in 2011.
