Viewpoint: from a macro perspective, the slowdown in economic growth continues, with great downward pressure. At the same time, liquidity remains stable, but it will take time for easing expectations to improve. At present, the market is dominated by structural market. In the medium term, if inflation falls and liquidity easing expectations increase, the market is still expected to usher in a new trend market. But before that, the market is still uncertain, and the structural market will continue. While paying attention to the overall risk, we can focus on the individual stock market from bottom to top. In the short term, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement to enhance the expectation of monetary easing, the substantial inflow of northward funds boosted market confidence, and the cross year market expectation of A-Shares is expected to continue. If there is a correction after a continuous rebound, it is still a good time to consider low absorption allocation.
After continuously breaking through the integer mark of 3600 and 3700 points, the index rose and fell yesterday. Today, it opened low and fluctuated, and once fell in the session. Under the strong growth enterprise market yesterday, the overall performance in early trading was good and continued to operate near yesterday’s closing. On the whole, the index ushered in consolidation after continuous upward, but it remained relatively strong on the whole. On the disk, the national defense industry led the rise, while the media, communications, computers, food and beverage led the rise, while building materials led the decline, while non-ferrous metals, coal, automobiles and household appliances led the decline.
Since last week, the central bank has lowered the reserve requirement to enhance the market easing expectation, and the appreciation of RMB has also continued to attract foreign investment, thus enhancing the market confidence. With the boost of various parties, the market ushered in a continuous upward trend. The Shanghai index successfully stood at the integer level of 3600 points, and once exceeded 3700 points yesterday. With the policy underpinning superimposed with the boost of foreign capital and the recovery of market sentiment, the market of A-Shares can still be expected across the year and even in the first quarter of the next year.
However, it should be noted that the market here may still be structural. Pay attention to the rhythm. On the one hand, the current easing expectation is gradually increasing, but the market is not fully relaxed, the probability of continuous upward is not large, and the shock is good or the main tone; On the other hand, after the short-term rise, we should not only pay attention to profit taking, but also pay attention to the short-term impact of overseas markets, especially the short-term impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting. In addition, the overall downward pressure on the economy remains, and the main logic of the market is still the deterministic direction of valuation improvement under loose expectations and high boom growth.
Therefore, with the boost of many factors, the current overall good trend of the market is gradually clear. For investors, if the index is adjusted recently, it is a good opportunity to absorb low. They can consider appropriate allocation, game monetary easing and the phased market of policy support. However, in the process of game, we should not only pay attention to the rhythm of the market, but also optimize the possible direction. After all, the market is still a structural market rather than an overall rise.
In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved plates can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to northward funds, such as financial and other value blue chips; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
