On the 14th, UBS global investment banking department held a teleconference on "prospects and recent hotspots of capital markets in Asia Pacific and China in 2022", sharing its views on capital markets, overseas Chinese bond markets, M & A markets, etc. in 2022.
"This year is a good year for the overall investment banking business in the Asia Pacific region. The overall core revenue in the Asia Pacific region increased by 15%, of which the strongest growth is corporate mergers and acquisitions, up about 50%. However, in absolute terms, the largest is still the stock capital market, with an absolute value of about $87 trillion." Said Jin Hongyi, head of UBS's Asia Pacific Investment Banking Department.
Zhang Qianjia, CO head of equity capital market department of UBS Asia, believes that, "Considering the reasons of China US capital market supervision, it is expected that the overall issuance of zhonggai shares listed in Hong Kong next year will accelerate. In terms of sectors, clean energy, healthcare and new energy technology will be the sectors that investors pay more attention to. In addition, the development of SPAC, a special project company in Hong Kong, is expected to be a relatively large product line next year."
With regard to the overseas Chinese bond market, Wang Ran, head of UBS China debt capital market department, said that from a macro perspective, there may be the following four main driving factors in 2022: first, the fluctuation of the interest rate market. At present, the market expects the fed to accelerate the schedule contraction, which may end as soon as March next year, and there may be the first interest rate increase in the second half of next year. Second, credit risk. Recently, with the introduction of a series of favorable policies and the relative relaxation of financing in the real estate industry, it has gradually stabilized from the perspective of industry fundamentals, but it still pays more attention to the risk of monomer next year. The third is ESG theme. ESG is a very growth theme in the medium and long term, and it is still optimistic next year, especially in the field of sustainable development in bond issuance and the issuance of ESG theme. Fourth, the further uncertainty of the epidemic situation may have a sustained impact on the overall supply and demand of the Chinese bond market.
"At the micro level, after excluding all bonds due from issuers who have defaulted or restructured, US $222 billion of overseas bonds of Chinese funded institutions will expire next year. From the past and future, next year should be the peak of overseas bond maturity of Chinese funded institutions. High yield real estate bonds are about us $35 billion, of which US $19 billion will expire in the first and second quarters of next year, which is the focus of the market in the future The focus of the study. " Wang Ran said.
According to Lu Suicheng, head of Asian M & a department of UBS global investment banking department, there will be three themes in the M & a market in 2022: first, more de spac cases may be seen in the first half of the year; Second, the privatization of Listed Companies in Hong Kong will continue; Third, the sale of some strategic equity and the sale or acquisition of highly competitive Chinese private equity funds will be more common.
Jin Hongyi believes that there are four factors that will affect the business development of investment banks in 2022: first, the epidemic may continue to affect the world; Second, China still has a strong growth trend in high technology, especially in emerging enterprises, which will breed the listing demand of more enterprises; Third, China's opening to the outside world, especially in the financial industry, will continue; Fourth, the short-term regulatory uncertainties and potential bond defaults in the real estate industry will lead some investors to be more cautious.
(Xinhua Finance)
