Viewpoint: from a macro perspective, the slowdown in economic growth continues, with great downward pressure. At the same time, liquidity remains stable, but it will take time for easing expectations to improve. At present, the market is dominated by structural market. In the medium term, if inflation falls and liquidity easing expectations increase, the market is still expected to usher in a new trend market. But before that, the market is still uncertain, and the structural market will continue. While paying attention to the overall risk, we can focus on the individual stock market from bottom to top. In the short term, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement to enhance the expectation of monetary easing, the substantial inflow of northward funds boosted market confidence, and the cross year market expectation of A-Shares is expected to continue. However, China Mobile’s initial application has been approved, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting is imminent, and the market has continued to rise and fall, so we should beware of increased index volatility in the short term.
In the morning, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low and rebounded after opening. Under the leadership of the traditional cycle plate, the index once rose and turned red. Since then, the two cities rose and fell, the plate ushered in differentiation, and the performance of Shenzhen composite index was relatively weak. On the disk, coal and building decoration led the rise, while environmental protection, media, steel and real estate led the rise, while food and beverage led the decline, while non-ferrous metals, commercial trade and household appliances fell.
From Monday, the index rose and fell, and the two days ushered in consolidation, which is mainly the result of the lack of power after continuous upward movement and the profit flight of some funds. However, at present, with the support of policies and the boost of funds, when the market sentiment is gradually picking up, the overall good trend is already obvious, and the overall market remains optimistic for the next year and the first quarter of the next year.
However, in the short term, the fluctuation of the index may increase after continuous upward movement and breaking through multiple integer levels. It is worth noting that:
On the one hand, the overall strength of funds has dropped. Yesterday, the total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1141.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 129.6 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day, maintaining above trillion yuan for the 38th consecutive trading day. The net purchase of northbound capital 1 was RMB 6.026 billion, of which the net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was RMB 3.976 billion, the net purchase of Shenzhen Stock connect was RMB 2.05 billion, and the net purchase of northbound capital for the 10th consecutive trading day. From last week to Monday, the transactions between the two cities continued to release, but they began to shrink from Tuesday, the trading enthusiasm began to drop, and the upward trend of the index still needs to wait and see;
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting is imminent, and the trend of tightening policy may have an impact in the short term. In the early morning of tomorrow (Thursday), the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the last interest rate meeting this year, which may have a certain impact on the capital market, whether accelerating the debt reduction or the expectation of interest rate reduction. The transmission of emotions may also bring fluctuations to short-term A shares, so it is necessary to keep a wait-and-see attitude;
In addition, in a not all-round loose environment, the probability of continuous rise in the market is not large. Under the previous high relative pressure, the repeated demand of the index may increase.
Therefore, after standing up to 3600 points and rising to 3700 points in a short time, the market consolidation demand will increase. It is forbidden to catch up. It is suggested to reduce holdings appropriately or keep on the sidelines. However, with the boost of many factors, the current overall good trend of the market is gradually clear. For investors, if the index is adjusted recently, it is a good opportunity to absorb low. They can consider appropriate allocation, game monetary easing and the phased market of policy support. However, in the process of game, we should not only pay attention to the rhythm of the market, but also optimize the possible direction. After all, the market is still a structural market rather than an overall rise.
(Jufeng Finance)
