With the dual positive support of RRR reduction and RMB appreciation, there has been a strong market for A-Shares since last week. Under this background, many institutions have once again shouted “cross year market” and looked at the future market optimistically.

Under the strong support of the disk, the “dispute between ningmao” which has attracted much market attention seems to be quiet. However, this is not because the battle over A-share style has been decided, but because under the hot interpretation background of “tail raising market” at the end of the year, both “Mao index” and “Ning index” show signs of returning and continuing to be active again. Taking the theme funds of the alcohol industry under pressure during the year as an example, from the data of the past month, only 48 funds had a negative return in the past month, accounting for less than 10%.

In addition, the northward capital, which is considered to be another driver of this round of market, also showed a net inflow for 9 consecutive trading days. It is worth mentioning that northbound capital has always been known as “smart capital”. Although its turnover accounts for only about 1% of the whole market, it has become one of the important indicators for analyzing the market situation. The reason is that northbound capital can often grasp the air outlet and layout in advance. It has a high probability of rising in the future when buying a large net.

On the whole, A-Shares also showed a “warm winter” trend at the end of the year. By the end of 2021, with the expectation of “cross year market”, there may still be structural opportunities in the market, and the trend of the follow-up market has become the most relevant problem for investors. When looking forward to the market next year, many fund managers believe that the three directions of large consumption, scientific and technological manufacturing and new energy continue to deserve key attention.

“the dispute between ningmao” declined

At the end of the year, the “tail raising market” is hot in the A-share market. Both the return of “Mao index” and the continuous activity of “Ning index” are quite eye-catching.

In fact, the dispute between “Ning portfolio” and “Mao index” has become white hot as early as the second quarter of this year. Therefore, the style transformation between value stocks and growth stocks has frequently become a hot topic in the market.

In fact, since this year, the consumer industry trend represented by the “Mao index” has experienced ups and downs, and consumer theme funds are also facing great pressure. Taking the theme fund of the alcohol industry as an example, the data show that as of December 13, among the 694 theme funds of the alcohol industry for which the data can be obtained, 369 products still had negative returns during the year, accounting for slightly more than 50%.

However, the situation has changed, with the recent market trend toward equalization, big food plate market continues to ferment, leading the market, since the beginning of this month, the level of food and beverage sector in CITIC first class industry has increased by nearly 10%. In the sub sectors, Baijiu, beverages, dairy products and mass consumer goods collectively attacked, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) shares have quietly upgraded the 2000 yuan mark. Still take the theme fund of the alcohol industry as an example. From the data of the past month, only 48 funds have a negative return in the past month, accounting for less than 10%.

In terms of northbound funds, as of last week, its cumulative net purchase reached 48.8 billion yuan, the largest weekly net purchase of land stock connect. The net purchase of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) was increased by northbound funds for 6 consecutive days, with a cumulative net purchase of 4.71 billion yuan, which was also the largest net purchase of stocks by northbound funds last week. The net purchase on the 5th was 4.374 billion yuan, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) also ranked among the top 10 net purchases in a week, Net purchases exceeded 1.6 billion yuan and 1.2 billion yuan respectively; Food and beverage was the largest industry with net purchase of funds from the North last week.

Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) on December 10, the annual strategy for food and beverage in 2022, the value of sharpening the line and showing more stability in hesitation, was released. It is believed that looking for “stability” will become the main investment strategy next year, and the food sector just has the “double stability” of valuation bottom and performance reversal. After the stress test this year, food and beverage is at the end of the downturn, and the consumption upgrading is still the same trend.

In addition, although the “Mao index” returned strongly as a whole recently, by contrast, the increase of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) during the year was as high as 87.60%. This shows that although the high valuation is criticized by some value groups, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ‘s increasing share in the global market, control over channels and R & D investment still make most institutions “cling” to it. Looking forward to 2022, the agency believes that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may take time to digest the overvalued value, but the prosperity remains unchanged.

northbound capital running admission

It is worth mentioning that the recent positive performance of northbound funds and policy support combined with RMB appreciation have attracted northbound funds to enter the market at the end of the year.

As of December 13, the cumulative net inflow of northward funds this year was 412.66 billion yuan, and it was in the pattern of net inflow in each month. Historically, the index probability also rose when there was a large net inflow of northward funds. Before the current round of net inflow of more than 20 billion yuan of northbound funds, northbound funds have maintained a net inflow trend for 9 consecutive days, which is worthy of attention. In terms of the proportion of turnover, northbound funds have maintained strong activity this year. Against the background that the RMB exchange rate remains relatively strong, there is still a continuous inflow of international funds.

In terms of industry net inflow, consumption and finance are favored, while electrical equipment, military industry and other sectors are weakened. The inflow of food and beverage, banking, non bank finance, electronics and household appliances exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the inflow of northward funds in medicine, biology, building materials, transportation and other sectors also increased.

Northbound capital has always been known as “smart capital”. Although its turnover accounts for only about 1% of the whole market, it has become one of the important indicators for analyzing the market situation and has attracted extensive attention from investors. The reason is that northbound capital can often grasp the air outlet and arrange the situation in advance. When making a large net purchase, it has a high probability of rising in the future. Statistics show that when the weekly net purchase of northbound funds exceeds 20 billion yuan, the probability of rise of Shanghai stock index in the next week is 51.85%, with an average rise or fall of 0.55%. When the time is extended to the next month (calculated on the 30th), the probability of the stock index rising is 64.29%, with an average rise of 2.77%.

three directions of market layout at the end of the year

2021 is about to pass, and the Shanghai stock index showed a volatile trend in the first 11 months of this year; However, there is great differentiation among industries. The cyclical industries such as power equipment, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and mining have increased significantly, while the industries such as home appliances, non bank finance, leisure services, real estate and media have decreased significantly, and the structural market is obvious.

At the important window period of position adjustment and layout before 2022, Zhu Hong, investment director of Nord fund, when looking forward to the A-share market next year, believes that the three directions of large consumption, technology manufacturing and new energy continue to deserve key attention.

He said that for the A-share market in 2022, we believe there are structural opportunities. In terms of macro economy, the economy is in the process of high-quality development, transformation and upgrading, and enterprise profits will still grow steadily. The central bank’s monetary policy implementation report released a positive signal of future monetary policy, indicating that it is difficult to further tighten liquidity in the future. From the perspective of valuation level, it is still within a reasonable range. After the disclosure of the third quarterly report of listed companies, the performance of the third quarterly report exceeded expectations, and the continued prosperity of the annual report deserve special attention. In the medium and long term, China’s economy has strong resilience, the strength of financial opening has increased, and the trend of continuous inflow of foreign capital remains unchanged. China’s idea of “housing, housing and non speculation” continues, and the superposition of financial products breaks the rigid exchange. The equity market is expected to gradually meet the needs of residents’ asset allocation.

In the direction of consumption, the investment and research team of Jingshun Great Wall Fund also believes that from this stage to next year, the overall opportunities of the consumer industry outweigh the risks. At the industry level, community group buying has entered the rational operation range, and brands have also found appropriate countermeasures; In terms of cost, various companies successively conduct price transmission by raising prices. From the current situation, the probability of success of price transmission is relatively large; At the valuation level, the valuation of mainstream core targets has reached a reasonable range. We hope that high-end Baijiu and high-end consumer goods with larger profit elasticity next year.

For the new energy sector, Cao Chunlin, the fund manager of ChuangJin Hexin, said that it is expected that 2022 will still be a year of ultra rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, and the growth rate of leading stocks will remain at a high level. Among them, lithium batteries are of great investment value, because in addition to the demand for automobiles, there will be a rapidly developing energy storage industry to “icing on the cake”. It is expected that the shortage of lithium batteries and related materials in 2022 will ease in the second half of the year, so we are more optimistic about the investment opportunities of leading enterprises that do not have particularly large fluctuations in product prices and rely on volume growth.

In addition, Zhu Shaoxing, the star fund manager of Wells Fargo fund and others recently investigated Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Dong Chengfei, the former deputy general manager of Xingzheng Global Fund, Shen Xuefeng of Huatai Bairui fund, he Yiguang of Great Wall Fund and Zhao Yi of ABC Huili fund investigated Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) . In the Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) research record with a market value of 460 billion, there is a rare phenomenon of the same frame among the three top flow fund managers of Ruiyuan fund, Chen Guangming, Fu Pengbo and Zhao Feng.

On the whole, Boshi Fund believes that the biggest market trading feature in the next quarter is the performance vacuum period, which can wait for the spring restless market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. In the spring restless market in the years with downward economic expectations in the past, the growth style performance will not be absent. It is suggested to gradually pay more attention to the following two types of fields: first, consider the repeatedly stressed new energy vehicles, military industry, photovoltaic, etc. that will continue to have a high boom in 2022, and pay particular attention to the military industry + new energy vehicle chain that can alleviate the contradiction of transaction congestion; Second, consider the opportunities of auto parts, games, shipbuilding and other industries with strong expectation of business reversal in 2022.

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(Financial Associated Press)