Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for three consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted in the short term, the impact of overseas conflict sentiment is repeated, the three indexes are seriously divided, the gem lost 2800 points in the session, and the transaction is poor. We still need to be careful of the repetition of the index and the possibility of revisiting. On the whole, with the recovery of the economic stage and the support of policies, the logic of the market for the better remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation can still be considered for bargain hunting
Recently, the overall performance of oil and resource stocks has been eye-catching. Despite the recent differentiation of index performance, coal, oil and other sectors continue to perform, forming a certain support for the Shanghai index. However, the performance of growth stocks was sluggish, and the decline of many stocks dragged down the gem. Throughout the day, the two cities opened higher and went lower, with sectors such as transportation, coal and real estate leading the rise, while food and beverage led the decline, while sectors such as national defense and military industry, electronics and automobiles fell.
Throughout the day, there are not many bright spots in the two cities. In addition to the continued strength of resource stocks, there is basically no additional main line for the differentiation of other sectors. However, for oil and other resource stocks, under the continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the oil price is still possible to rise. Whether this price can reach a new high depends on the degree of European and American sanctions against Russia, because this may affect the export of Russian crude oil and natural gas, lead to a substantial shortage of global crude oil and natural gas, and significantly push up the oil and gas price.
For the stock market, you can’t catch up with stocks here. For example, in the oil and gas sector, Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) has been connected to six boards, and the stock price has basically doubled in this wave. This is not only the specific embodiment driven by events, but also the representative of capital speculation. Once the impact of events weakens, the short-term pullback range of such stocks may be relatively large, so we should beware of the risk of fluctuation.
In addition, the two cities have a new focus today, which is the massive decline! Compared with the transaction downturn in the previous few days, it is still necessary to be cautious about the high opening and low going of the two cities and the release of trading volume today. In particular, the high volume going down on the upper edge of the shock range is not conducive to the breakthrough of the index. Once the mood is poor, it is easy to usher in a new retreat. When the index jumped on the first day of this month, there is still a gap. According to the general law that the gap should be filled under the weak performance, we should also make it possible for the index to bottom again.
Therefore, blind intervention is not recommended here at the time of the differentiation of the three major indexes in the short term and the large-scale decline. Wait patiently for the possible withdrawal of the market. However, in the same sentence, even if there is a retreat here, it is not a downward trend, but repeated shocks to build a bottom. With the support and boost of many parties, for radical investors, withdrawal is a good time to consider strategic allocation. For steady investors, they can also wait and see with light positions and patiently wait for the establishment of the market direction.
