In the top ten stock positions of the top 20 performance funds, the white horse leader of new energy seems to be "despised".
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is recognized as an excellent company in the industry and has become the largest market value company of new energy. However, in the top ten stock positions of top 20 funds, the ranking and weight of this giant are obviously lower than its market value ranking and influence. Many star fund managers stressed in an interview with Chinese reporters of securities companies that the small and medium-sized market value varieties of the new energy track have brought rich benefits to the fund, which is almost the largest.
Yang Ruiwen, top flow fund manager and Jingshun Great Wall new energy industry fund manager, believes that the second-line variety business and organizational structure in the early and medium-term stage are simple, efficient and more attractive, while Baima company is large to a certain extent and often has big company disease, "Every former giant has perfect logic at the top of the stock price and is full of praise. However, no enterprise can be perfect and must have its own risks and problems."
who has the greatest opportunity for new energy track?
On December 13, there were 9 block transactions in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) heavy positions of public funds, with a total turnover of 866.9 million yuan. Among them, a single transaction of 500 million yuan is a discount transaction, with a transaction price of 575.96 yuan / share, while the latest closing price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is 658.36 yuan / share, with a discount of nearly 13%. According to the data, as of December 13, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) shares have increased by about 87.49% this year, and the CSI new energy index has increased by 60% in the same period.
The comparison between the rise of CSI new energy index and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) means that there are a number of stocks with better performance in this year's A-share new energy track. In fact, among the core positions of many fund managers, the core varieties on the new energy track are often small and medium market value varieties.
"What we gain more on the new energy track is mainly some grey horse stocks, rather than the white horse leader in the traditional sense." Star fund manager and Ping An strategy pioneer fund manager Shen aiqian told the Chinese reporter of the brokerage that grey horse stocks also have good fundamentals, but such varieties have the characteristics of low market attention and weak research, which also makes such second-line varieties have greater stock price space once they are found valuable by the market.
In fact, the positions of the top 20 fund managers in the top ten stocks during the year, almost all of which involve the new energy track, point to the market value of the second-line middle market. As the largest market leader of the new energy track, it has a weak sense of position in the top 20 funds.
Taking Qianhai open source public utility fund, which is temporarily ranked as the champion in performance, as an example, according to the data at the end of the third quarter, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is the seventh largest heavy position stock of the fund. In the Great Wall Industry revolving fund, whose performance is temporarily ranked fourth, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was the fourth largest heavy position stock by the end of the third quarter of this year. As of the end of the third quarter, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was the fifth largest heavy stock of the Golden Eagle national emerging fund.
Obviously, there are other people in the first heavy position stocks of the above funds on the new energy track. In the positions of Baoying advantageous industry fund and Dacheng state-owned enterprise reform fund, which are temporarily ranked third and sixth, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) even failed to enter the top ten stock positions of the two funds.
Cui Chenlong, manager of Qianhai open source fund, who is temporarily listed as the annual performance champion, also admitted in an interview with a Chinese reporter of a brokerage that he holds more small and medium-sized market capitalization or second-line varieties in his position on the new energy track, and these varieties even exceed the first-line white horse in the traditional sense in return.
The above fund managers believe that the market value can represent whether a company is excellent or not, because some companies are start-ups, and their initial market value is very small. However, if it is found that its value trend is likely to become larger from the perspective of research, it will Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) progress. In other words, listed companies that have made mistakes should also be included in the scope of attention. Many companies have delayed production capacity or product development, sometimes giving the impression that the capital market is lower than expected, resulting in stock price fluctuations. For these companies, they should be more tolerant of positions.
structural investment implies second-line opportunities?
It is worth mentioning that up to now, the market value of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has reached 1.5 trillion yuan, and its new energy track market has been hot for a long time. When the A-share market is coming to an end in 2021, the discussion on how long the valuation market will last is also unfolding.
Zeng Wenhong, fund manager of Nord fund, said that the A-share market will probably show a structural market in the future. However, due to the relatively high base of high boom electric vehicles and new energy tracks and full market expectations, even if the performance is still excellent, the market of pure valuation may end.
In an interview with reporters, Shen aiqian, fund manager of Ping An strategy pioneer, said frankly that there is no problem with the general trend of new energy vehicles. At present, the global penetration rate is only about 10 points, which is low recently, but it may not be easy to invest next year. First of all, the most tense stage of supply and demand in many links of new energy vehicles next year has passed. Next year, the production capacity of some links will continue to come out, and the competition pattern between supply and demand may gradually deteriorate. Secondly, with the continuous profit growth of the general trend, the market has fully responded to the valuation of next year. If there is a significant rise in a short time at the beginning of next year, the pace is too fast, and it may be necessary to switch to the valuation of the next year.
The opportunity of new energy track next year may be structural, which is only a logic that fund managers tend to small and medium-sized market capitalization and second-line varieties.
top flow fund manager analyzes the pain points of Baima Longtou investment
Yang Ruiwen, manager of top flow fund and deputy director of Jingshun Great Wall stock investment department, spent a long time explaining his love for small and medium-sized market value varieties in the early and medium-term stage. It is worth mentioning that the top flow fund manager manages Jingshun Great Wall new energy industry fund.
Obviously, the process of buying small and medium-sized companies is full of doubts and puzzles. Yang Ruiwen said, "some people question why you buy junk stocks? Some people question why you grow crops in saline alkali land and why you don't fish where there are fish?" He believes that it is not easy to invest in the early and medium term. Most of the time, he can only move forward alone, and even there are all kinds of doubts inside. Sometimes he can only withstand all the pressure silently.
With regard to such stocks, Yang Ruiwen, fund manager of Jingshun Great Wall new energy industry, pointed out that the early and medium-term growth stocks are generally in an immature stage. It is like a vigorous youth. The market's understanding of it is relatively hazy and there are all kinds of prejudices. In general, for early and medium-term growth stocks, it is difficult to have an obvious moat. People occupy a more important position at this stage and need to understand all aspects of industry and enterprises. It is not easy to invest in early and medium-term growth stocks. There are few sellers to cover and research, and more need to devote their energy to research.
Yang Ruiwen does not agree that the large market value white horse leading company has always been regarded as a transparent and easy to study company in the market, and has perfect logic and moat.
He believes that it is easy to understand the surface of white horse stocks, because there will be a lot of preliminary research in the market and the market will form an inherent consensus. However, it is very difficult to really understand in depth. As for the elements such as competitive barriers and moats, many people have summarized and analyzed them, and many market studies are to demonstrate these studies. But is this really the case? Maybe insiders don't necessarily think so. To a certain extent, every company will inevitably have a big company disease, and there will be all kinds of intertwined interests. When the industry changes or the market environment changes, the internal is often the most important obstacle. However, not all managers have enough ability and courage to drive the enterprise to change and reform. Sometimes it is not whether they are willing to change, but that they are helpless in the face of change.
"You can recall that every former giant has perfect logic at the top of the stock price and is full of praise. However, no enterprise can be perfect and must have its own risks and problems." Yang Ruiwen said at the forum that after the enterprise is large to a certain extent, even the senior management of the enterprise may not clearly see the risks and problems. In this way, it is difficult to lock and measure the risks, which will bring all kinds of uncertainty to the investment.
The top flow fund manager said that many people would think that the early and medium-term risk of investing in enterprises is high, but it is not the case. It is precisely because the business chain in the early and medium-term stage of the enterprise is relatively short and the organizational structure is relatively simple, and the founders or core management usually have their own words. Therefore, the risks of the enterprise are relatively predictable and discriminated. Just because it is easy to judge the problems of the enterprise, long-term tracking and research can generally identify and observe the risks in advance.
(brokerage China)
