Recently, the central economic work conference set the tone for the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system. Just now, the CSRC said it would comprehensively deepen the reform and opening up of the capital market under the guidance of the reform of the whole market registration system.
Zhongzhengjun comprehensive brokerage Research Report makes five conjectures and predicts the possible great changes in A-share ecology and investment logic after the implementation of the comprehensive registration system for investors’ reference.
conjecture 1
the trading system is in line with the “science and innovation board and gem”
Referring to the scientific innovation board and gem, the following changes may occur after the full implementation of the registration system in Shanghai and Shenzhen:
1. 20cm “big long legs” fully bloom;
2. There is no limit on the range of rise and fall in the first five trading days after listing, and two suspension indexes of 30% and 60% rise and fall are set;
3. Set up price cages for hanging orders;
4. Implement after hours pricing transactions.
conjecture 2
shorten IPO audit time
1. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that the average audit time of Shanghai and Shenzhen Main Board will be shortened from 490 days to about 60 days;
2. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that the total number of A-share listed companies may exceed 6000 in five years.
conjecture 3
the proportion of “breaking” of new shares may be increased
After the implementation of the comprehensive registration system, the market-oriented inquiry mechanism will hand over the pricing power of the issuance to the market, and the proportion of “broken issuance” may be increased.
From the perspective of the secondary market, the implementation of the registration system will be accompanied by the expansion of the equity market, and the quality of listed companies is more important.
conjecture 4
logical value of investment
With the continuous optimization of the registration system and the continuous improvement of the accountability system, high-quality enterprises with core technical capabilities and stable operation will be favored by more funds.
Investment logic will pay more attention to the internal value of enterprises, which will also become the mainstream logic of the market, and “speculation concept and story telling” will be difficult to survive.
conjecture 5
obvious structural market
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that relaxing the rise and fall range of Shanghai and Shenzhen Main Board will not significantly exacerbate market volatility.
In terms of stock market characteristics, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that in five years, the market value of A-share technology and consumer companies will increase from 40% to 60%, and the market value of the top 5% of large companies will increase from 51% to 70%; The proportion of institutional shareholding will be increased from 22% to 31%. For companies with poor governance, the trading volume and market value may shrink rapidly.
The CSRC will deploy five reform tasks next year to ensure the smooth implementation of the whole market registration system and accelerate the improvement of the overseas listing system
The comprehensive registration system is coming! Do domestic and foreign investors see 4200 points in the market? Look at the latest interpretation of the organization
(China Securities Journal)
