Key updates:
Reiterate the judgment of style: the credit started well in January and tilted towards growth the day after tomorrow. It is suggested to pay attention to the photovoltaic sector during growth, which is expected to usher in a new era.
Under the tone of steady growth, the monetary policy continued to be loose, which was good for the valuation of PV. In December last year, the central economic work conference set the tone of "flexible and moderate" monetary policy, which is relatively loose, and the interest rate and reserve requirement cuts can still be expected. Abundant liquidity environment is favorable for photovoltaic valuation. From historical experience, valuation contributes a large weight to the change of photovoltaic stock price.
The combination of high installed capacity growth and abundant liquidity is good for the rise of photovoltaic stock price, typically in 2020. In 2020, the parity is expected to drive the rush loading demand, with 49gw of new installed capacity throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of + 64%, of which 21.7gw was installed in December; Superimposed on the overall loose monetary policy, the PV index rose by + 72% in the whole year. Under neutral assumptions, we expect high growth of PV installed capacity in China and the world in 2022, with 84gw of new installed capacity in China (+ 53%) and 211gw (+ 24%) in the world.
The valuation of each link has returned to a reasonable level. After preliminary adjustment, the dynamic PE of each link in 2022 is generally 10% - 20% lower than that of 2021 / 12 / 10. At present, the inverter is 40-60 times, the component is 40 times, the silicon wafer is 30 times, the silicon material is 15 times, and the peg is below 1. The valuation has been attractive. According to DCF's calculation, the market value of wind photovoltaic index has a space of 17% - 95% under the neutral optimistic assumption from now to the end of 2022. Core view of in-depth report:
Photovoltaic has a broad space in the long term. It will track price increases, installed capacity and capacity release in the short term. It will pay attention to the opportunities for gross profit expansion in the middle and lower reaches in 2022. Starting from the energy structure, build a photovoltaic "ladder" prediction framework, taking the long-term installed capacity as the foothold, and the core assumptions include the total energy consumption and structure.
The cumulative installed capacity of global PV is expected to quadruple in 9 years. We predict that the cumulative installed capacity of PV in China (worldwide) will be 1309gw (4746gw) in 2030, an increase of 328% (441%) over 2021, and the compound growth rate of new installed capacity from 2022 to 2025 will be 18.1% (21%).
Photovoltaic industry has both cycle and growth attributes. ① The industrial chain is periodically weakened from top to bottom. According to historical experience, loose liquidity is good for cyclical growth and stock price performance. China's monetary policy tends to be positive in 2022. ② Periodicity: from policy driven to market driven, the overall price rise of the industrial chain may affect the installation process in the short term. In 2022, the silicon production capacity will be released, and attention will be paid to the opportunities for gross profit expansion in the middle and lower reaches. ③ Growth: technology driven cost reduction, diversified routes and unstable pattern.
Investment suggestion: selection of long-term screening technical route α； DCF estimates the change space of photovoltaic market value in 2022. ① Photovoltaic investment needs to be more bottom-up, and the long-term income comes from individual stocks α Not industry β， The leading competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and the technical route and first mover advantage are the most critical. ② DCF model: with reference to the global installed capacity forecast, assuming the growth rate of industry revenue and profit, and with reference to the discount rate given by the return rate of equity fund, quantitatively calculate the future market value space. At present, by the end of 2022, the market value of wind photovoltaic index has a space of 17% - 95% under neutral optimistic assumption and 32% under pessimistic assumption. The specific range depends on the policy and prosperity.
For details, see the report "photovoltaic: valuation calculation under energy transformation - Sky Series II of the track" on November 13, 2021
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
