On December 14, Anxin securities held the 2022 annual investment strategy meeting in Shenzhen. The theme of the investment strategy meeting was "thousands of sails on the side of a sunken boat". Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, a big industry player, came to the scene to deliver a keynote speech.
Gao Shanwen's speech mainly involves two aspects: the judgment of the real estate industry and the prospect of China's economic structure transformation.
for the real estate industry, Gao Shanwen said frankly that the liquidity crisis in the real estate industry spread locally, but the worst time has passed, and the "hard landing" situation should be avoided. According to Gao Shanwen, the proportion of real estate investment in GDP peaked in 2015, and the sales level peaked in 2020 and 2021. The business model of the real estate industry shifted from high turnover and high leverage to connotative high-quality growth.
for the A-share market, Gao Shanwen believes that generally speaking, the return provided by A-shares to investors in the past decade is not satisfactory. Now in 2021, the stock structure of A-Shares has been optimized. The proportion of traditional industries has been reduced, and most of the market value is private enterprises and medium and high growth enterprises. The potential of A-Shares to provide returns to investors has been significantly improved.
the following is the summary of the main speech:
real estate (I): 2020 and 2021 will be the top of commercial housing sales
Over the past 20 years, China's real estate has maintained a high-speed development momentum and has become the most important driving factor of China's economy.
Specifically, the demand for real estate comes from three aspects: first, a large number of people continue to flow into the city, which continues to drive the urban housing market; Second, improve the housing demand of urban housing; Third, the use of houses has a certain service life. With the damage of old houses, there is a demand for replacement.
Therefore, whether the rapid growth of the real estate market can be sustained in the future, and to what extent the three major needs of the real estate market have been met, this paper gives some views and judgments from a macro perspective and a bottom-up perspective.
The starting point of the research is the theoretical limit hypothesis to find out where the growth limit of the demand in the real estate market is: first, the replacement and elimination of old houses is not the biggest demand. Houses built after 2000 will not enter large-scale elimination and replacement before 2030 and 2050. At present, houses replaced are still those in the 1980s and 1990s; The second is to assume that the housing penetration rate of urban residents has been saturated. The third is to assume that the required housing and housing penetration rate are stable for new urban residents.
Under the theoretical limit hypothesis, the growth of housing market is equal to the growth of new urban population. The demand for housing comes entirely from the demand of new urban residents and the growth of new urban population.
According to the important data of the real estate market, the difference between the growth of real estate sales and the growth of urban resident and employed population is calculated every five years. It has been very low from 2010 to 2014 and significantly higher from 2015 to 2019.
After inference, they tend to believe that the commercial housing sales data from 2010 to 2014 are underestimated to some extent, and the high level from 2015 to 2019 has the stimulating impact of some events. On the one hand, it is due to the monetization of shed reform. The replaced currency is considered to be transformed into the demand for commercial housing, which is considered to be an important reason for the rise of house prices in second and third tier cities, but it is not sustainable for a long time, On the other hand, the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the adjustment of money and credit is extremely loose, and the demand of the real estate market remains high.
Since 2015, the long-term trend of peaking in the real estate market may have been established. How serious is the deviation and overdraft of the existing real estate sales from the long-term trend of the real estate market.
In 2021, the area of real estate sales will not exceed 1.53 billion square meters, but in reality, 1.76 billion square meters may be seen, about 20% more than that. This deviation lasted for several years. The sales demand of the real estate market returned to the long-term trend level, and even corrected by being lower than the long-term trend level.
From 2021 to 2030, the basic trend of urbanization, the growth rate of urban resident population and the growth rate of newly employed population will not be higher than 1%, or even negative growth.
Conclusion: in 2020 and 2021, the real estate sales area will be 1.76 billion square meters, which will be the top of commercial housing sales for a long time, and will be a long-term historical top.
In the long run, real estate is still a pillar industry, but the supporting force is gradually weakening. It can be proved that the performance of East Asian neighbors will contrast China's economic growth in the growth of East Asian economies. The East Asian economy's residential investment /GDP reaches its peak and touches the peak point of time. China's 2010 is equivalent to that of 1968, Japan, 1991, South Korea, and 1987 Taiwan, China, on average, the 4 years after the year of the target mark is peaked, pointing to the conclusion that The proportion of China's real estate investment in GDP has peaked in 2015. Residential sales and real estate investment will be at a very low level, or near zero.
Looking back at history, large-scale shanty towns in 2016 and 2017 have played a great role in the field of inventory, but there is a great correlation with the rise of housing prices and the real estate bubble in the two or three line.
real estate (II): business model changes from high turnover and high leverage to connotative high-quality growth
The continuous promotion of deleveraging has a great relationship with the liquidity pressure of the real estate market.
first define the inventory turnover rate, inventory is narrowly defined as the area that has been started but has not been sold, and the data stability is higher. 2015 is an important watershed. Before 2015, the industrial inventory turnover rate was relatively low, but increased significantly in 2015.
followed by the net sales interest rate of the real estate industry, 2015 is still a watershed. Before, the level of the sales center was relatively high, and then it sank significantly. The top of the fluctuation decreased significantly and the bottom swung lower.
In 2015, the business model of the real estate industry was to hoard goods and land for profit, waiting for the rising land price and house price, which supported the relatively high roe of the real estate industry; After 2015, the business model of the industry has turned to the high turnover model, which will be sold immediately after commencement, and the recovered funds will be used for new construction, so as to hold as little land and inventory as possible and improve the turnover rate to make profits. Given the high leverage, the net profit rate of sales will decline with the short-term growth of supply, and the roe will not necessarily rise.
With the more and more frequent regulation of the real estate market, the internal vulnerability of the mode of hoarding goods and land has been exposed, and there are great pressures and obstacles to the return of funds. Under the frequent regulation, it becomes difficult to control the sales, while under the condition of high turnover, the enterprise's ability to control the funds becomes stronger.
With the continuous promotion of deleveraging measures, the high turnover model of the real estate industry has come to an end. Under the existing regulatory conditions, the original model is unsustainable. The real estate market is likely to face the third adjustment in the future, which is marked by the forced decline of inventory turnover and leverage. If other factors remain unchanged, roe will decrease, resulting in "spitting out the market". In the next stage, the business model of the real estate industry will shift from high turnover and high leverage to connotative high-quality growth and fine control.
economic structure transformation
China's economic growth rate has been fluctuating downward without reaching the bottom. In the process of fluctuating downward, all parties actively promote economic transformation, from medium and low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing, from high speed to high quality. What are the prospects and investments in the capital market, and how to continue to observe and predict the transformation process of economic development.
(1) China's economic structure transformation: an observation from industry
In the past, heavy industrialization, infrastructure and real estate were frequently used to deal with the economic downturn. The most important thing is infrastructure and real estate. Such supporting forces will no longer exist now.
Since 2018, with deleveraging and stronger financial discipline, economic growth has inevitably shifted more and more to endogenous growth, which is realized by economic structure transformation. At the same time, with the continuous appreciation of the exchange rate and the continuous improvement of the export share, the global competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry is rising. The sectors with strong competitiveness are growing rapidly, and the sectors with weak competitiveness are eliminated.
First of all, the export delivery value of China's industry and the change of market share by industry are studied. After 2015, in the overall structure, the proportion of emerging industries is increasing, while the proportion of sunset industries is decreasing.
Secondly, the capital expenditure of the industry. The proportion of capital expenditure of the high growth group has increased significantly since 2015, accounting for more than 50% of the whole, while that of the low growth group is less than 30%. Among the new investment and fixed assets, emerging industries have accounted for more than 50%, and the transformation goal has been more than half.
Thirdly, the upgrading and transformation of China's industrial structure. From the experience of other countries, the rise of the automobile industry can be regarded as a sign. Japan's automobile industry in the 1980s and South Korea's automobile industry after the 1990s, but unfortunately, there are not a large number of domestic cars occupying the roads of developed countries.
Based on the observation of industrial data, 70% of the upgrading of industrial structure is concentrated in the field of computer and communication equipment, which continues to carry out rapid technological revolution and iteration, creating more and more opportunities for us to overtake on curves. In the huge and complex global supply chain in this field, China is generally in the downstream assembly and production links, climbing rapidly from the bottom to the top along the supply chain, but there is still a certain gap from the top, which is an important feature of China's industrial structure transformation in the past 10 years. In the future, new variables and challenges may arise due to changes in the international political and economic environment.
(2) China's economic structure transformation: an observation from a sample of listed companies
Another dimension of the transformation of is the transformation from manufacturing industry to service industry. The industrial data does not include service industry. The 30 subdivided industries are not fine enough because the data granularity is not enough. The reference to China's economic transformation can also be observed with the help of the data of listed companies. The flaw is that some excellent emerging companies in China may not be in a shares, similar to Tencent Alibaba, Xiaomi, etc. are also the defects of using only A-share listed companies for analysis.
Under the condition of comparable samples, the long-term growth rate of business of different companies is ranked from high to low, accurate to the secondary subdivided industries.
Gross profit margin: the profit margin of the high growth group is much higher, followed by the medium growth group, and the low growth group is the lowest; There are similar performances in terms of capital ratio, number of employees and per capita wage. A large number of new employees have gone to high growth companies.
From the perspective of high growth group and emerging industries, half are service industry and half are manufacturing industry. 90% of the low and medium growth group are manufacturing industry, and there is basically no service industry. The precise positioning of high-end manufacturing and modern service industries can be found in the secondary subdivided industries, which is basically invisible in the middle and low-end growth group.
Generally speaking, one feature is the combination of software and hardware, that is, there is a close relationship between high-end manufacturing and computer and communication equipment; Another feature is that it can often be associated with green and low-carbon transformation.
In mature industries, the achievements of Chinese enterprises climbing up along the value chain are not very obvious. However, in the field of overtaking opportunities at corners, there have been important technological changes, and the performance of Chinese enterprises is extremely excellent.
Impact of on capital market:
First, observe the market value composition of listed companies (excluding listed companies in the financial and real estate industries). Since 2010, the proportion of emerging industries has increased from 25% to 50%, traditional industries have decreased from 50% to 25%, and the medium growth group has remained at 20%. From the perspective of market value composition, the economic transformation has been completed.
The second is to observe the change of stock price. The stock price index of the high growth group rose from 100 to 300 in 2010, and the low growth group fell from 100 to 84.
Third, observe the average annual compound interest, high - 10%, medium - 5-6%, low - negative growth
More than half of the high growth group are private enterprises, and most of the low growth group are state-owned enterprises. It is not empty words to promote the deepening of economic structure transformation and maintain a fair competition environment. It is very important to ensure the success of transformation.
Generally speaking, the return provided by the A-share market to investors in the past decade is not satisfactory.
From the perspective of economic transformation and industry composition, the proportion of the old economy of listed companies was too high in 2010. Most of the old economy were state-owned enterprises. State-owned enterprises became listed companies through restructuring and listing. At the moment of listing, they had passed the stage of high growth, were in the cycle of industry decline, and their stock price performance was poor; Taken apart, the returns of emerging industries to investors are acceptable.
Now in 2021, the stock structure of A-Shares has been optimized. The proportion of traditional industries has been reduced, and most of the market value is private enterprises and medium and high growth enterprises. The potential of A-Shares to provide returns to investors has been significantly improved.
Traditional low growth industries will also have stock price fluctuations and may give a certain return, but on the one hand, listed companies need to continue to grow, high-quality corporate governance structure, stock repurchase and reasonable investment. However, random investment in traditional industries is common.
In general, the impact of the capital market on A-share companies in the next decade should be full of expectations.
(brokerage China)
