On February 26, 2022, the registration and trusteeship center of banking financial management issued the annual report of Bank Of China Limited(601988) financial management market (2021). In 2021, the rectification of stock financial management was basically completed, and the growth of financial management scale accelerated in the second half of the year. Cash wealth management and fixed income wealth management grew rapidly, and their proportion increased. In terms of asset allocation, the allocation of bonds, cash and deposits increased. In addition, the allocation of public funds increased and non-standard allocation decreased. The impact of stock financial management on the market may have been eliminated, and the characteristics of financial management as an independent asset management institution may continue to highlight in the future.
The rectification of the new regulations was basically completed, and the growth of financial management scale accelerated
In 2021, the balance of banking financial management was 2.9 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 12.14%, which was higher than that in the past two years. Compared with the first half of the year, the growth in the second half of the year was more rapid, with an additional 3.2 trillion yuan in the second half of the year. In accordance with the new regulations on financial management, the rectification of stock financial management has been basically completed, the impact of the rectification of net worth and changes in valuation methods on the scale and product issuance has been gradually resolved, the financial income has remained relatively stable, and the development of the industry has been gradually restored. Break even financial management was cleared, and the proportion of net worth products reached 92.97%. The balance of financial management of financial management subsidiaries accounted for 59% of all financial management, a significant increase of 20 percentage points over the medium term. After the net worth and the standardization of valuation methods, the overall financial management still maintained a relatively stable income. The report pointed out that “the average number of financial products with” net breaking “in the month is only about 1.2%. Even if the net value fluctuates in the short term, the product yield can basically return to the average level quickly”.
The proportion of cash products increased, the proportion of open-end products increased, and the closed-end period lengthened
(1) the proportion of cash is still increasing, and the growth may slow down this year. The balance of cash products is 9.29 trillion, an increase of 1.51 trillion over the medium term, accounting for 32%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points over the medium term. With reference to the requirements of the new regulations on cash management, the transition period is required to be by the end of 2022, and the decline in deposit costs may continue. The “proportion” of cash may still have a downward pressure this year. At the same time, the increase in the proportion of cash products is related to the low-risk preference and liquidity demand of financial customers. (3) The proportion of fixed income products increased, while the proportion of mixed products decreased. In 2021, fixed income products reached 26.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, accounting for 92.34%. The balance of hybrid financial products was 2.14 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 46.13%, accounting for 7.38%. Compared with 2020, the bond market will make more money in actual investment in 2021. In the medium and long term, there is still room for improvement in the mixed category, and each stage is still related to the performance of major categories of assets.
The allocation of interbank certificates of deposit, cash and deposits and public funds increased, while the allocation of non-standard funds decreased
In the second half of 2021, interbank certificates of deposit, cash and deposit allocation increased, which is related to the increase of main cash products. In addition, non-standard allocation decreased and public fund allocation increased.
Reiterate the view that the bank market will continue to be optimistic, and the market will continue to be driven by stable growth and stable real estate policies. When the evidence of weak macro demand and real estate is found from the data and analysis, and the effectiveness of the existing policies is limited, or we should not be overly pessimistic. The economy has a cycle, the policies have goals, and there is greater upward possibility and space in a lower position. The goal of steady growth is clear, there is room for policy strength, and it takes time to achieve results. Force, effectiveness and data improvement will become the catalyst for bank stocks, just as PMI in February. Compared with other stable growth varieties, the bank has lower valuation, limited increase in the early stage and greater upward space in the future.
In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to pay attention to regional banks with rapid performance growth, such as Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , and continuous recommendation of core targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
