From January to February, the operating sales amount of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 43.2% year-on-year. According to the ranking data of sales performance from January to February 2022 released by Kerui, the sales amount of top 100 real estate enterprises was 926.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.2%, and the growth rate was 3.5 percentage points lower than that in January; The sales amount of equity caliber was 732.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.8%, the growth rate was 2.6 percentage points lower than that in January, and the equity ratio was 79.1%.
The year-on-year growth rate and threshold of each echelon’s trading sales decreased significantly, and the threshold of waist real estate enterprises decreased the most. In terms of sales scale, from January to February 2022, the top 10 real estate enterprises realized a sales amount of 383.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.2%; Top11-20 real estate enterprises realized a sales amount of 150.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.2%. In terms of threshold, from January to February 2022, the top 31-50 real estate enterprises had the smallest decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 40.1%; Top51-100 real estate enterprises ranked second, with a year-on-year decrease of 40.6%; The largest decline was in the top 21-30 real estate enterprises, with a year-on-year decrease of 49.2%.
In terms of leading companies, the trading sales amount in February was sluggish year-on-year, and only one of the top 20 was growing year-on-year. From the perspective of the monthly sales volume in February, country garden reached a maximum of 40.7 billion yuan, followed by Vanke Real estate, rongchuang China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Greentown China, with sales volume of 306.9 billion yuan, 213.8 billion yuan, 193.2 billion yuan and 12.73 billion yuan respectively. From the perspective of the accumulated sales amount from January to February, country garden reached the highest of 87.68 billion yuan, followed by Vanke Real estate, rongchuang China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Greentown China, with sales amounts of 63.76 billion yuan, 47.79 billion yuan, 45.32 billion yuan and 27.35 billion yuan respectively.
There are three main reasons for the cold sales: (1) affected by the epidemic during the Spring Festival, the tide of returning home only appeared in some areas, and the scale was lower than expected; (2) The industry is still in a relatively difficult time. Last year, relatively strict regulation and control significantly suppressed the supply side of real estate, including the “three red lines”, loan concentration, pre-sale fund supervision and other policies, which affect liquidity; The “two centralization” policy at the land supply side disrupted the turnover rhythm of real estate enterprises, resulting in the impact on the supply structure of most real estate enterprises. From January to February, some cities opened fewer buildings with low quality, thus affecting the demand of home buyers; (3) Since the increase of mortgage interest rate and the tightening of mortgage quota last year, the demand side has been relatively depressed, superimposed with uncertain factors such as real estate tax pilot, the wait-and-see atmosphere of the real estate market is strong. At the beginning of the new year, although the policies on the demand side were relaxed in many places, the strength was still insufficient.
Considering that under the background of “implementing policies for the city”, there have been many substantive relaxation on the demand side, including reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the housing loan interest rate, increasing the loan amount of provident fund, providing house purchase subsidies, it can be judged that the bottom of the policy has appeared. However, from the response of the property market from January to February, the current policy strength is not enough, and more favorable policies are expected to be on the way.
Investment suggestion: the fundamentals are still at the bottom, but the direction of policy easing is clear, maintaining the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. Previously, we judged that the strength of this round of policies is still insufficient. We expect that more policies are in the way, and the main direction is to improve the capital and demand side of enterprises. At present, from the perspective of sales, the fundamentals have not yet bottomed out. We believe that “the policy continues to be favorable – the industry fundamentals are bottomed out and are expected to recover later – the state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises resume land acquisition and the gross profit margin of land acquisition will be repaired” is the main logic of 2022, which will reach the three-level resonance upward of fundamentals, industries and enterprises in the later stage. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to real estate enterprises, including: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, sales are lower than expected, the strength of real estate tax policy is higher than expected, and the credit default of real estate enterprises and its impact spread risk.
