\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 371 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) )
Key investment points
Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) : it is underestimated compared with the global industry leading application materials, and the market value has room for improvement
On the fertile soil of China’s semiconductor market and the similar competition pattern between China and the US semiconductor equipment industry. Semiconductor equipment is the cornerstone of the development of the semiconductor industry. The growth rate of China’s semiconductor equipment leader is far-reaching, the global industry leader, and the market value is gradually in line with the leader. We believe that Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) reasonable market value has room for improvement, which is underestimated compared with global industry leaders. In this paper, we will discuss the rationality of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) valuation through multiple dimensional indicators.
How to view the impact of cyclical fluctuations in the industry on the valuation of semiconductor equipment companies? Can be appropriately weakened
1) in the past 50 years, the semiconductor industry has experienced five generations of changes, with obvious cyclical fluctuations. As the second-order conductor of downstream demand, the periodicity of semiconductor equipment is more significant. The market is worried about the impact of industry periodicity on the valuation of semiconductor companies.
2) by comparing the market value trend of three leading semiconductor equipment companies (Applied Materials, RAM research and asman), with the continuous improvement of the market share of semiconductor equipment leaders in the field of subdivided equipment and the promotion of advanced manufacturing processes in the industry, the impact of cyclical fluctuations in the industry is significantly reduced, and the market is willing to give higher valuation premium space.
3) we believe that Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) as a leading enterprise of platform semiconductor equipment in China, it is expected to replicate the business trend of increasing the leading market share of semiconductor equipment in North America (domestic substitution) and diversified product platform layout (platform company) in the future. In the process of considering Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) valuation, the impact of cyclical fluctuations in industry demand on the company’s valuation can be appropriately weakened.
How to treat the reasonable market value range of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) ? Market value ratio (and applied materials) hub has upward space
1) referring to the competition pattern of semiconductor equipment at home and abroad, we believe that the company should take the applied materials as the anchor to conduct benchmarking analysis. Since 2017, the market value of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) has increased by more than 12 times and the market value of applied materials has increased by about 3.5 times. The market is worried that there is limited room for the short-term improvement of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) market value. However, we found that the core driving factor of the company’s rise is more from the beta market brought by the improvement of the industry boom than the valuation premium given by the market to the company’s leading semiconductor equipment companies.
2) we established three major indicators for analysis: we found that the revenue increased by 3.9 times compared with ratio in the past six years, and the sales of semiconductor equipment in China increased by 3.3 times. However, the market value of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) / applied materials is only 3.6 times higher than that of ratio, and has maintained a sideways fluctuation of 9% – 28% in recent three years, which is currently in the central quantile of 18%. In the industry beta + company alpha two wheel drive (the average growth rate of China’s semiconductor equipment sales in the past five years is 17.4% higher than that of the world, and the average growth rate of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) revenue is 35.3% higher than that of Applied Materials), we believe that the theoretical Market value has room for improvement than the central market.
At present, the investment growth rate of raito is 14.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year compound growth rate of 42.1% to 2023%, and the revenue is expected to increase by 4.2% to 2023%. Over the past three years, the market value ratio of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) / applied materials has remained in the horizontal fluctuation range of 9% – 28%, and the center (18%) has not moved up significantly. We believe that the market value ratio has room for upward improvement. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the downstream expansion is less than the expected risk; The risk of product R & D falling short of expectations; Trade friction risk.
